Interview1st Trump term didn't help us predict behavior in the 2nd, 'Black Swan' author saysPresident Donald Trump's unpredictability makes the second Trump administration a black swan -- a rare, unexpected event that has a major effect -- argues the writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb. © APNEW YORK -- The writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb coined a new way of thinking about unpredictable shocks in his 2007 book, "The Black Swan." Taleb now tells Nikkei that the current U. S. administration is a black swan due to the erratic decisions of President Donald Trump.