The route taken by pro-government leaders during the storm unleashed by Rabat

"I understand that several of you have doubts about this matter, and I want to explain my reasons." President José Antonio Kast's voice sounded calm in the Democracy and Memory Hall on the morning of Monday the 9th. It is unusual for the head of state to attend the traditional expanded political committee that brings together the leaders of the ruling parties and the ministers of the political team at the start of the week, but this time he took the initiative to personally quell the internal crisis triggered by the reduction of sentences for child sexual abusers by Justice Minister Fernando Rabat. DRAGOMIR YANKOVIC/ATON CHILE Although his tone did not betray it, in recent days the president had accumulated frustration. While he was on tour on his first trip to Europe since taking office at La Moneda —which culminated in an audience with Pope Leo XIV— the ranks of the ruling coalition were buzzing with formulas to overcome the Rabat crisis. All of them, however, had one point in common: the need for a cabinet reshuffle. The boldest also included a reformulation of the political design, in which, more than a change of names, what is needed is to strengthen coordination with the parties and combine technical capabilities with experience in public management. As the days passed —the crisis erupted on October 21— the situation worsened. The criticism of Rabat and the threat of a constitutional accusation, which was finally filed this Thursday the 12th, coincided with the final phase of the budget discussion in the Chamber of Deputies, the truckers' strike, the Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz's acknowledgment of a "technical recession" in the economy, and a sustained decline in presidential popularity in the polls. When President Kast took the floor, anticipation in the hall rose to its peak. Those who learned of the intervention highlighted that the president's explanation was brief. In direct terms, he made three points clear: that there would be no cabinet reshuffle, at least in the short term; that Minister Rabat would remain in his post, because for him it is a matter of principles, as he is not willing to yield to pressure from the left; and, third, that it is crucial that the constitutional accusation —which at that time was only a threat from the opposition— be rejected, to prevent that mechanism from being used in the future as a formula to dismantle his cabinet. The script had been read. And the reaction of the party leaders was to remain silent and comply with the decision with a mixture of resignation and discipline. The ministers present, meanwhile, nodded at the president's onslaught. They were already aware of Kast's reasons, as he has been insistent in his closest circle that he will not be dictated to by the parties, and that just as being counterintuitive has worked for him in the past, this time he is once again convinced that his bet is correct. Unlike previous conflicts —the most serious have been the fuel price hike, the problems with the Second Floor, and the Security agenda— the controversy over the sentence reductions led to a diagnosis shared by Guillermo Ramírez (UDI), Andrea Balladares (RN), Luciano Cruz-Coke (Evópoli), and Arturo Squella (Republicanos). One not insignificant difference, however, was that the leader of the Republicans —the president's party— opted for a low public profile on this occasion. Although they do not hold coordination meetings, the group does share a chat —called "Presidents"— which has been more active during these days of crisis. The dual-role minister Claudio Alvarado alongside spokesman Gonzalo Arenas. In the conversations they have held with dual-role minister Claudio Alvarado and spokesman Gonzalo Arenas —the government's interlocutors in this crisis— they have maintained the common stance of pushing for adjustments to the ministerial team. That said —after it leaked that both government officials had been transparent with the parties about the fact that they were working on a new political design for the cabinet, which triggered the president's displeasure— the party leaders sealed a pact of silence to shield their conversations. On Tuesday the 10th, Balladares, Squella, and Cruz-Coke hurried from the Senate to the Chamber of Deputies, where Ramírez was in the middle of the discussion of the 2027 Budget. The quartet met for about 40 minutes in the antechamber of their meeting with President Kast at Cerro Castillo, Viña del Mar. Together they took stock of the political situation they face. They agreed that an important political problem was still being faced and that their respective party bases were creating discipline problems that —at times— they found difficult to contain. They also agreed on the message they would deliver to the president at the meeting, which ended up lasting nearly three hours: the government's political design must be improved. An alignment with costs Although resigned to the president's decision not to touch his ministerial staff, the party leaders maintain their position that the political model applied by Kast is exhausted, and that this could end up being the great conclusion of the Rabat crisis. The most critical view of the handling of the controversy is within National Renewal. From those ranks it is acknowledged that Senator Andrea Balladares has led a more radical position to get out of the crisis. President José Antonio Kast, alongside RN leader Andrea Balladares and Deputy Diego Schalper. DRAGOMIR YANKOVIC/ATON CHILE Her analysis —as she made explicit last week in La Tercera— is that "when mistakes of this magnitude are made, that responsibility also demands facing the consequences, even when it means making difficult decisions and putting the country's interest above any personal consideration." And that the greater risk lies not in the drop in the polls, but in the deterioration of citizen trust ultimately conditioning the government's performance. Although she has publicly socialized the harshness of her position, Balladares has also had to deal with her party and parliamentary ranks, where —it is already a fact— the greatest ruling-coalition discontent with the government exists. In that vein, she played a key role in defusing internal pressure, which was exposed in the harsh National Renewal political committee on Monday the 2nd, in which, while the government's leadership was questioned, the removal of the Justice Minister was not expressly demanded as some required, including Senator María José Gatica. As a counterweight, the focus was placed on the Second Floor, the group of presidential advisors led by Alejandro Irarrázaval. "Errors of this nature demand a serious review of the procedures and responsibilities involved, including those of those who serve in direct advisory functions to the President of the Republic," the text reads. The diagnosis is that this conflict has eclipsed —as happened with the security bill— the government's agenda; that the focus is not being placed on solving citizens' demands, especially in economic and employment matters. And, worse still, that it is generating discontent, as public opinion polls show. In recent days, the senator has continued intense efforts to ensure that no vote from a member of her party joins, whether by action or omission, in favor of the constitutional accusation against Rabat. Tension in the UDI and Evópoli The president of the UDI, Guillermo Ramírez, has moved with more public caution; in May he declared that party to be one of the most loyal to the Kast government. Guillermo Ramírez, president of the UDI. MARIO TELLEZ The statement is still the object of questioning among his internal detractors. Even more so these days, given the displeasure over the sentence reductions and Rabat's retention. La Moneda took the pulse of the gremialists on Monday the 2nd, the same day as RN's difficult political committee. That night, Minister Alvarado and Undersecretary Arenas —two men with UDI credentials, the first as a member and the second for having been registered in those ranks for three decades— joined a camaraderie barbecue of the gremialist caucus at the home of legislative coordinator Rodrigo Pinochet in Concón. The atmosphere was tense. The first sign was the surprise withdrawal of Deputy Cristóbal Martínez, on the grounds that the presence of the two government officials altered the original idea and turned a social gathering into a political meeting. And then, because the deputies' displeasure over the sentence reductions and over Kast's decision to keep Rabat erupted. Deputy Marlene Pérez was the most categorical. She warned Alvarado that she was not in a position to reject a constitutional accusation against the Justice Minister, due to her commitment to defending children. That would be an incoherence, she told him. Meanwhile, with nuances, Deputies Hotuiti Teao and Ricardo Neumann also raised a similar decision, as the conversation turned to various sources of discomfort over the treatment they say they have received from La Moneda. "There is no doubt that taking measures without consulting the parties is a problem," says Deputy Mario Olavarría. The problem Ramírez must manage is that the internal feeling is that unconditional loyalty has not paid off. In fact, a source from the leadership confides that the appointment of Gonzalo Arenas as Segegob Undersecretary was not communicated in advance to the UDI board, even though the position was to be filled by someone who had been a member of that party for years. Detractors of this strategy maintain that the gremialists must make their voice count and not keep giving blank checks in advance. A criticism they direct at the party president for having stated —before the opposition had even presented the text— that the UDI will reject the constitutional accusation. "It is a manipulation, it is a use, it is an instrumentalization of children. And it is for that reason that we are going to reject the constitutional accusation," he said on Radio Pauta, although it is valued that he is pressing La Moneda —along with RN and Evópoli— on the need for deeper surgery. With the constitutional accusation already filed, Ramírez continues to face the threat that UDI votes will join the onslaught against Rabat. Although he leads the smallest party of the ruling coalition, Senator Luciano Cruz-Coke has also taken his place in the public debate, pushing for adjustments to the government's design. Containing his parliamentarians has not been easy for the senator either, when one of the defining hallmarks of his party has been "children first." For now, he has secured the votes of his congress members in favor of the government. The Republican pressure The leader of the Republicans opted from the outset to align himself without nuance with Kast's position in defense of the Justice Minister. The enthusiasm, however, cost him the only difference the ruling-coalition leaders have had in this crisis. Arturo Squella lashed out at former minister Hernán Larraín (UDI) for having questioned Rabat's version, stating that "there is no acquired right" and that the Supreme Court's jurisprudence has evolved. "How valuable it would have been to have this law in force in the days of Paul Schäfer, don't you think, Hernán?" the senator asked on his social media. Arturo Squella, president of the Republican Party. DRAGOMIR YANKOVIC/ATON CHILE After the post, he received calls from Ramírez and Cruz-Coke to withdraw his recriminations, which provoked indignation in the UDI, a party that was on the verge of suspending its attendance at the political committees over the attack on one of the historic leaders of gremialism. While Squella agrees that La Moneda should take the political opinions of its parties more into account, he has strongly pushed Kast's support for Rabat, based on the fact that respect for institutions is a golden rule in the government. Since then, the Republican senator has opted for a tactical public retreat —coordinated with the rest of the party leaders, since he leads the president's party— and has focused on pushing the legislative route to resolve the crisis: repealing the law that allows sentence reductions. The Rabat case —say those in his circle— has served to contain the Republican ranks, who —in private— had been accumulating displeasure over the lack of pardons and other government decisions with which they are not comfortable. Today, the bet within the ruling coalition is that the constitutional accusation will not pass the barrier of the Chamber of Deputies. The possibility of inflicting a harsh defeat on the opposition is in the playbook of the ruling party leaders. That is what they discussed with the president at the Cerro Castillo meeting when he directly asked them whom he can count on for the accusation against Rabat. Once that point was set aside, they could resume with greater intensity the idea of convincing the president to give the green light to a new government design. President José Antonio Kast with the leaders of the ruling coalition.