Machado focused on consultation for the transition and political prisoners: What is the strategy?

Away from large mass events, Machado focuses on citizen consultation and demanding the release of political prisoners. Photo: Vente Venezuela Since her return to the country was announced on October 25, opposition leader María Corina Machado has centered her discourse and agenda on two issues: the transition and how to make citizens feel part of it, and the release of the political prisoners that the NGO Foro Penal still puts at 321. The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate arrived in Caracas in a caravan that passed through several states, gave her first press conference at the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello (UCAB), visited La Guaira and the San Bernardino parish — also hard hit by the double earthquake — has met with political prisoners and their families, and read from Rodeo I prison a list of detainees to demand their release. She also gave her first interview to an over-the-air media outlet (Radio Rumbos). For some who demand on social media that Machado call for large mobilizations to demand presidential elections as soon as possible, the former deputy has kept a low-to-moderate profile. Others recall that the country is under tutelage and that some condition must have been imposed on the political leader in order to return to Venezuela, among them, not contributing too much to agitation in the streets or obstructing the dialogue process for the political transition. For political analysts consulted by Efecto Cocuyo, Machado's movements and discourse so far show a strategy of keeping at the center issues sensitive to public opinion, such as the restoration of rights and democratic guarantees — fundamental for a democratic transition, which necessarily requires that there be no political prisoners in Venezuela. Likewise, the fact that the population has so far been a mere spectator of the process initiated by the government of the United States since January 3, with the detention of former ruler Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores and the recognition of Delcy Rodríguez as acting president. In this sense, the analysts agree, Machado's objective is to rearticulate the citizen base and make it the protagonist of the rescue of democracy. The question is whether she will manage to have influence over what happens in Venezuela. Repositioning "María Corina Machado is developing a strategy of gradual political repositioning. By placing the democratic transition and the freedom of political prisoners at the center of her discourse, she seeks to connect the institutional negotiation with the most sensitive demands of Venezuelan society," said political consultant Luis Medina Gil. For the CEO of the firm Poliestrategia, citizen consultation allows Machado to argue that the transition cannot be decided exclusively between chavismo and the opposition interlocutors selected by the U.S. to negotiate. In his view, the former deputy would be shielding herself from responsibility over the achievements, scope, and timelines of the negotiating table between the 2015 and 2025 assemblies. During an interview on Radio Rumbos (670 AM) this November 11 — her first with an over-the-air media outlet in the country — Machado stressed that it will be a "different" transition because it will not be "of a few," but a process built and owned by millions of Venezuelans. "This is going to be a transition that is agreed upon and debated. And you say: but how are you going to have millions of people discuss what the structure of the State will be or the State-citizen relationship? And I tell them: we are already doing it. And this great process is called Punto de Acuerdo," Machado explained. "Punto de Acuerdo" is one of three projects outlined by Machado upon her arrival in the country, around which her efforts will revolve. The other two are called "Venezuela tierra de gracia," which brings together technical proposals for economic and institutional development prepared by multidisciplinary teams for the reconstruction of the country, and "Constructores," aimed at ensuring that all Venezuelans can vote in the presidential elections. "Machado makes it clear that this is not a return just to resume an agenda of mass events. Her strategy is perceived as responding to two fundamental contexts: the democratic transition and the freedom of political prisoners. Regarding the transition, she assumes it as a national task, of consulting Venezuelans and working to rebuild the State, and not as a simple change of government — until now Venezuelans have only been spectators of the process. Right now they are not part of the country that is coming," agreed political scientist Paola Molina Noguera. The top leader of Vente Venezuela reiterated that what she expects from the dialogue table — which she has said she will not obstruct despite having been excluded from it — is the appointment of a new Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) and National Electoral Council (CNE) with qualified individuals, and the setting of a date for presidential elections in which the diaspora vote can be included. Machado has estimated that the elections should be in 2027, and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said it is "ideal." Prudence and dosing Molina Noguera does not yet see much clarity in Machado's agenda for the coming weeks, which for now suggests she is going through a stage of reorganization and social articulation. "The challenge will be to turn the meetings, consultations, and proposals into a structure of citizen participation with the capacity to influence the democratic transition. For the Venezuelan opposition leader, the transition must go through a process in which Venezuelans recover their voice, their capacity to decide, and above all their condition as citizens with rights," the political scientist noted. Medina Gil also observes several challenges to Machado's current strategy. One of them is converting social legitimacy into real influence over the agreements, democratic guarantees, and electoral calendar decided at the dialogue table. He warned that one thing is to participate in the debate on the transition and another is to effectively influence the decisions. Another challenge, according to the political consultant, is Machado's management of two factors: maintaining her political presence and avoiding a precipitated confrontation that affects the conditions of the process toward the transition. "I would not necessarily interpret all of that as political passivity. It may respond to a strategy of prudence and dosing of pressure, at a time when institutional negotiations are going through a decisive stage and she does not want to go against the great decision-maker: the State Department — read more clearly, Marco Rubio," Medina Gil maintained. The fourth round of talks between the interim leadership and the Delegated Commission of the 2015 Parliament, recognized by the U.S., at the dialogue table is scheduled to begin this Friday, November 13. For this new cycle of meetings, the evaluation of the issues of political disqualifications and intervened political parties is planned, through the review of at least four laws, and the completion of the renewal of the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ). "I would not rule out that there are understandings about the conditions of Machado's return, although there is not enough public evidence to affirm it. But it is no secret to anyone that in Venezuela, both the government and the opposition are under tutelage. The real unknown is how long she will be able to maintain this strategy before her followers begin to demand more active participation and concrete results," Medina Gil added. This Sunday, María Corina (@MariaCorinaYA) attends the Church of San Bernardino de Siena, in Caracas. A moment of reunion, faith, and prayer. This struggle is also spiritual! Thanks to Father Numa Rivero for the welcome. pic.twitter.com/DhoMeG0Tz1— Vente Venezuela (@VenteVenezuela) November 8, 2026 Articulation before mass events Previously, upon receiving the 2026 Sebastián Piñera Freedom Prize at the XI Presidential Dialogue of the IDEA Group on November 10, Machado, remotely, asserted that Venezuela is already in transition. "We are now in the midst of a transition to democracy, a transition that does not always advance in a straight line, but in the right direction, because in the end what will prevail is the sovereign will of Venezuelans, and that will is unyielding," the opposition leader declared before Miami-Dade College (MDC). This November 12, the Nobel laureate met with Spanish MEPs Hermann Tertsch and Jorge Martín Frías, both of the VOX party, who are visiting Venezuela to express their support and advocate for an electoral calendar. In the political scientist's judgment, the conditions are not yet in place for Machado to call large mobilizations in the country, including guarantees for her own security, since the repressive apparatus remains in force and it is difficult for Miraflores to control the regional structures of the ruling party (PSUV) and armed groups, whether police or not. "We must avoid confusing the absence of large gatherings with the absence of political activity. Machado has laid the foundations for a stage of reorganization and articulation: meeting with leaders, listening to different sectors, incorporating the demands of victims, and building consensus around the transition. Citizen mobilization is fundamental, but it does not necessarily begin with a massive rally — it begins with organization," she opined. Since January 3, and independently of calls from political actors, union and guild groups, and families of political prisoners have held protests and remain in the streets to demand guarantees of their rights. Other analysts have estimated that if Machado observes greater delays in the results of the dialogue table, she will move to a phase of greater pressure in the streets. It is worth noting that the National Assembly with a chavismo majority began this week a process of reviewing cases of procedural delay that could lead to new releases, without admitting that these are political prisoners and that it is a consequence of the negotiations. It was announced a few days earlier by the head of the opposition delegation at the dialogue table, Dinorah Figuera. The measure also comes after Machado visited the camp of families of political prisoners at Rodeo I, in Miranda state, and addressed the detainees with a megaphone in hand. Four days later, the camp was dismantled amid expectations of releases.