How the number of Catholics has varied in the country over the last two decades

Pope Leo XIV greets the faithful from the popemobile during his official tour of the province of Córdoba in Argentina. Although Catholicism remains the religion with the largest number of followers, it has lost adherents over the last 18 years in the face of the growth of those who do not identify with any religion, or who identify as atheists or agnostics, and the rise of evangelicals. A survey conducted by the Barometer of Religions and Beliefs in Argentina, of the Observatory of Beliefs in Argentina (OCREAR) at the University of Buenos Aires (UBA), published in June of this year, shows that a majority in the country adheres to Catholicism, but this faith no longer holds the religious predominance it historically had. Will Pope Leo XIV's visit be able to change the current numbers? It is still too early to know, but the fact is that the massive masses in the City of Buenos Aires, the FADEA factory in Córdoba, the Cathedral of Luján, and the Meeting with Young People at the Monument of the Spaniards gathered at least 7.1 million people. A figure that surprised the organizers and the Vatican itself. Currently, 57.7% of the population aged 16 or older identifies as Catholic, according to a report by the Barometer of Religions directed by sociologist and CONICET researcher Juan Cruz Esquivel. That percentage marks a considerable drop compared to the 90% adherence to that faith recorded in 1960, according to the National Population Census of that year. "While Catholicism as a religious practice may have declined, at the same time, in certain circumstances, it is very active. Catholics were greatly mobilized by the presence of Pope Leo XIV in the country," says Pablo Semán, a professor at the University of San Martín who specializes in the study of popular cultures and issues of religiosity. "The Pope, as pontiff, is an embodiment of divinity and for Catholics his figure carries great hierarchy, which generates great religious emotion. There are people who went to see the Pope pass by and did not stay for the mass," adds this CONICET researcher. The population with no religious affiliation — including atheists and agnostics — consolidates as the second-largest group at 22.4%, confirming the advance of processes of religious de-institutionalization. It has held that place since 2019 according to the historical comparison. However, the Barometer report warns that "this category does not necessarily imply an absence of religiosity. On the contrary, a significant proportion maintains spiritual beliefs and practices. This phenomenon approximates what sociology calls 'believing without belonging,' where religiosity persists detached from formal institutions." In the same vein, in conversation with Infobae, Semán points out that there is a large sector that defines itself as 'without religion,' but that does not mean it has no religious belief, or that they are atheists, but rather that it does not belong to any particular institution. They may believe in God, in the Holy Spirit, in the Virgin, in the Gauchito Gil, or in the horoscope. "These are people who perhaps do not identify with the Catholic Church or its dogma, or who practice alternative therapies and have a way of thinking that is totally compatible with 'believing' in something." In third place, at 17.4%, are those who identify as evangelical, almost one-fifth of those surveyed in the Barometer poll. This figure shows gradual but sustained growth over the last two decades and consolidates this faith as the second organized religious identity. "These data show that the Argentine religious field is no longer structured around a single dominant entity," notes the UBA report, but rather, on the contrary, "it has become more plural, fragmented, and diverse." The rest of the population is distributed among Jewish, Muslim, indigenous spiritualities, or other minority beliefs. Can Leo XIV's visit reactivate Catholicism in the country? "There is a vital dimension of Catholicism, which is the papal one. And that, in turn, makes other dimensions of Catholicism pulse and reverberate. In a somewhat crude metaphor, the Pope sows at the pace of the wind and the airplane, and the Catholic structure moves at the pace of a mechanized infantry in the sand. There is a gap between the two. It is always a problem to know whether the Church will take advantage of it or not. And also how to measure it," Semán analyzes for Infobae. In that sense, the author of "Living the Faith. Between Catholicism and Pentecostalism, the religiosity of popular sectors in Argentina," maintains that there may be some indicators, although we will have to wait to see them. "Will there be more baptisms, more conversions, or attendance at masses? We don't know yet; it may take a couple of months. The Pope promotes a mobilization of the ecclesial structure and, in addition, there is a re-enchantment of practices that are not necessarily the most institutional or the most visible. Many people gain depth in their Catholic faith in contexts like this or draw closer to Catholicism. Perhaps afterwards they won't go to mass. That is a problem for the priests and of how mass is defined." According to Barometer data, forms of belief vary by age. "Religious change is strongly driven by a process of generational replacement," warns the report coordinated by Esquivel, a UBA professor specializing in the topics of secularism, secularization, and the State-Church relationship in Argentina. Indeed, among young people (16 to 29 years old), the percentage of those who consider themselves Catholic drops to 44.6%, while it rises to 69% among those aged 50 and over. As for young people who declare having an evangelical affiliation, the percentage rises to 23.6%. At the other age extreme, among those over 50, it drops to 13.6%, below the average. These numbers show that young people are not losing their religious vocation, but are progressively turning more toward the evangelical world at the expense of Catholicism. "Young people in general tend to keep more distance from institutions. And so, whether believing or not believing, they prefer to be in places where the institution is more flexible. Catholicism is not flexible for young people, just as it is not for anyone," observes Semán about the data produced by the Barometer. "Being more flexible, evangelicals can attempt greater cultural proximity with that group," he adds. As for the segment that does not identify with any religion, being atheists or agnostics — the second largest in the country according to the survey — it reaches 31% among young people, compared to 22.4% of the average of respondents of all ages. In contrast, those over 50 who do not adhere to any creed drop to 12.6%. "Among young people without religion, it is very likely that atheism or criticism of religion has grown. In fact, among students in the Social Sciences programs — whom I know through my teaching role — is where there are the most atheists. New forms of religious belief, non-institutionalized, are also growing," Semán points out. Among Catholics, there are slightly more women: 58.5% versus 57.1% of men who define themselves as such. The difference in favor of women is also greater among evangelicals: 19.3% versus 15.2% of men. For Semán, this is linked to the different place women occupy in the institutional life of both faiths. "I worked socially in a neighborhood for five years and the women who participate in religious groups are the majority. And yet, their role in the Catholic Church is secondary. In the popular neighborhoods of Greater Buenos Aires there are dozens of evangelical churches that do not belong to any federation, which have women as pastors. And yet, if that woman stays in Catholicism, her role is very restricted and conflictive, because she always has to negotiate with the bishop or the priest." Meanwhile, among those who do not identify as belonging to any religion, men outnumber women: 25.7% versus 18.8% of female respondents. According to Barometer data, forms of belief also vary according to place of residence, with differences between those who live in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area (AMBA) and those in the interior of the country. Those who identify as Catholic are more numerous in the provinces (59.4%), and those who say they have no religious affiliation rise in percentage (26.1%) in the urban fabric of the Capital and its surroundings. The distribution of evangelicals is similar in AMBA to that in the rest of the country. However, in the analysis by educational level, evangelical affiliation rises among those with incomplete secondary education, up to 22.5%. "Evangelicals expand more in the popular sectors, where Catholics cannot grow," warns Semán. "Despite the pastoral work of the Church and the assistance of Cáritas?" Infobae asks. "That is the only way Catholicism can grow among the popular sectors, as a kind of 'hospital.' In contrast, evangelicals are mutual aid societies in the popular world. Without interference from anyone." Those who do not identify with any religion are slightly more numerous among those with complete secondary education and tertiary or university training (28.5% and 27.9%, respectively). In the case of Catholics, the percentage of respondents is similar among those with incomplete secondary education and higher education (60.1%). It only drops a bit among those with incomplete secondary education (50.9%). The same UBA Observatory, in another report last August, surveyed the reasons why the Argentine population attended temples or churches. The survey showed that 35.5% did so during the last year in search of some kind of help. Spiritual support was the main reason for consultation (21.7%), followed by health problems (10.5%). Another 8.9% of respondents — in a multiple-response questionnaire — said they had done so to request economic or food assistance. Consultations related to training or job searching (7.1%), educational activities or school support (5.6%), and situations of domestic violence (3%) were also recorded. The Barometer details that evangelicals use the support networks of their churches more frequently. 64.6% of those who identify with that faith turned to one in search of some kind of support during the last year, compared to 38.8% of Catholics. Among this group, 48.3% turned for spiritual support, more than double that of Catholics (22.2%) and well above people with no religious affiliation (5.1%). This trend is also observed in consultations for health problems, which reached 17.6% of evangelicals, compared to 12.4% of Catholics and 3% of those who do not identify with any religion. In the case of economic or food assistance, the percentages were 15.8%, 9%, and 3.8%, respectively. The survey also shows differences in terms of the age of those who turn to a religious institution. People over 50 were those who most attended a temple in search of help in the last year: 45% turned to these spaces during the last year, compared to 34% of young people aged 16 to 29 and 27.6% of those aged 30 to 49. In contrast, 72.4% of people between 30 and 49 said they had not resorted to these support networks during the same period. Among the main reasons, for people over 50 it was the search for spiritual support and health problems, while among young people, requests for economic or food assistance and situations of domestic violence carried greater weight. Educational level marks another difference in the relationship with religious institutions. People with less education were those who sought the most help in temples (42.8%), according to the survey conducted by the UBA Barometer. They did so in search of spiritual support (26.9%), health problems (14.9%), and/or economic or food assistance (12.5%). In contrast, 73.4% of those who completed higher education did not turn to temples or churches in search of help. Data visualization: Daniela Czibener Loading and verification: Desiré Santander