Roberto Jaguaribe, former Brazilian ambassador to the UK, China, and Germany: "The best thing is to ignore Milei, Argentina is much more"

Roberto Jaguaribe. Former ambassador. He is a member of the International Advisory Board of the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI) (Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)) Roberto Jaguaribe was born on December 27, 1952, in Rio de Janeiro and graduated in Systems Engineering from the Pontifical Catholic University of that city. He joined the Brazilian diplomatic service in 1978 and since then built a career of nearly five decades that took him across four continents. He served at Brazil's Mission to the United Nations in New York and at the diplomatic representations in Montevideo, Geneva, and Washington. Between 2010 and 2015, he served as ambassador to the United Kingdom. In 2015 he was appointed to China and Mongolia, a post he held until 2016. Until last year he headed the mission in Germany, and he is currently a member of the International Advisory Board of the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI). With that background, Jaguaribe analyzed with Infobae the bilateral crisis between Argentina and Brazil and the outlook that Lula da Silva's reelection opened up for regional politics, on October 25, 2026. To date, President Javier Milei has not congratulated his Brazilian counterpart and is, along with Nayib Bukele, the only Latin American leader not to have done so. From Brasília, earlier, and in response to the Argentine's criticisms, it was decided to downgrade the diplomatic representation in Buenos Aires to chargés d'affaires. Javier Milei and Lula da Silva (AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko, File) "Argentina is inevitable for Brazil and Brazil is inevitable for Argentina," said the former ambassador in a context where there are moves that keep the institutional channel open, though without a sign of de-escalation. Milei and Lula pursue their geopolitical logic with the elections in Spain as a common denominator: the libertarian took part in the Ibero-American Summit in Madrid and was photographed with VOX leader Santiago Abascal, while Lula attended COP31 in Turkey, met there with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and tomorrow, Monday, has engagements in Spain with President Pedro Sánchez. Meanwhile, Foreign Ministers Pablo Quirno and Mauro Vieira already crossed paths at the G20 ministerial meeting in Atlanta, without a confirmed bilateral, and Brazil had earlier summoned the Argentine chargé d'affaires in Brasília to request information about Flávio Bolsonaro's departure for the United States through Argentine territory following the defeat in the runoff. - How do you assess the impact of Lula's victory on the region? - The impact is gigantic. Around the world, especially in Europe, there was general relief at interrupting a process that was replicating itself in many parts of the world. I think it is a larger projection, possibly, than Lula's first victory in 2002. The consequence is global, not because of Brazil's relevance, although that also counts, but because of going against the trend that was replicating itself in many parts of the world, especially in Latin America. - How does what is called "the blue wave" that President Milei seeks to promote fit into that map? - It is a wave, without a doubt. But it is an old wave. Because the world has many possible divisions. One can say many things, but I believe the fundamental thing is politics that places the dignity of man as the central question, or politics that places economic progress as the central question. They are not incompatible at all. But the fundamental thing is what the central starting point is. Lula and many others place the dignity of man as the central point of what government should do. I believe that is where a division lies. Javier Milei and Flávio Bolsonaro (Reuters) - The fact that Milei has not recognized Lula's victory and that Flávio Bolsonaro left from Buenos Aires to travel to the United States — how does that play out in diplomatic, political, and economic terms? - The first thing to understand is that Argentina is inevitable for Brazil and Brazil is inevitable for Argentina. Doing silly things and taking coarse, primitive, almost clownish postures to go against that seems totally wrong to me. It is an unavoidable, fundamental, and necessary relationship for both countries. The things the Argentine president said and did are somewhat vile and clumsy, but they should not affect anything, because Argentina is much more than that. There are people in Argentina with a great deal of sense who understand the relevance of this relationship and will not let it get out of hand. What Brazil must do is ignore it. Of course, one must have the usual diplomatic reprimands, but completely ignore it. As for Flávio Bolsonaro's flight, it is not even bad for Brazil: it characterizes exactly what that character is. It facilitates the interpretation that he was not good for us. So I don't think it does any harm. The fundamental thing is to keep alive the need for the best possible relationship, in the interest of both countries. - What gestures are necessary to repair the relationship? Today there are no ambassadors in either capital. It is said that Lula could invite Milei to his inauguration. Could that be a good gesture? - I think so, and I think he should do it. Relations are not personal: they are components of relations between states. Lula is a professional and will not allow the clumsiness of the Argentine president to interfere with the fundamental relationship Brazil must have with Argentina. He will surely invite him, as he will all heads of state. Brazil and Argentina are countries of immigration, they are developing countries, countries that have the ability to have relations with all the countries of the world. It is in our interest to have relations with everyone. But one thing is inescapable: the first priority of foreign policy is geography. And geography, whether we like it or not, obliges us to have relations. And I would very much like Milei to accept the invitation. It is necessary for both sides to maintain a professional attitude. The normal thing would be mutual recognition, the congratulations. That would be the balance, the normal thing. Cristina Kirchner with André Janones, from Lula's campaign digital team - After the elections, André Janones, who coordinated Lula's digital strategy, met in Buenos Aires with former President Cristina Kirchner and with Peronist leaders. Can Lula's success be transferred to Argentine politics? - I have always held the idea that countries should not intervene in the internal politics of others. But this goes beyond that question. It is a question of system and methodology for overcoming the big American social media platforms, which have their own programs oriented toward different interests. Manipulating the platforms in favor of one's own interests should be a rule that everyone should follow. Here in Brazil, the man who created this perspective with enormous insight and competence had, in my judgment, a very clear influence on the electoral result, because he mobilized people. But if there had not been an interest among the people and a convergence on that, nothing would have happened. The possibility of circumventing the surveillance of the digital platforms to introduce additional elements is important in any circumstance, because otherwise we will be increasingly subjected to the designs of those platforms. And that does not suit any country that aspires to be sovereign. - How does Mercosur function with two such strong countries with such different outlooks? - It is in Brazil's interest to negotiate with as many as possible. There is a platform of interest in maintaining domestic industrial productive capacity, but I don't think Argentina is very far from that national intention, even though Milei has a more liberal position. Current conditions oblige us to maximize access to any market. And that means negotiating quickly and effectively, ideally jointly, because there is more attractiveness for third countries if we do it that way. One recalls that when Milei came in, he wanted nothing to do with Mercosur or the agreement with Europe. But there are internal elements in Argentina with better judgment. The benefits of the Mercosur-European Union agreement are very immediate and visible. And it is not only economic: it is also a question of a worldview. Today more than 50% of trade is concentrated in Asia, and that suits no one. - Could Venezuela rejoin the bloc? - It is necessary that it be a sovereign government. A sovereign government, not one imposed by an external power, however benevolent or malevolent that power may be. What matters is a sovereign country. Lula da Silva, this Saturday, in the Philippines, at the ASEAN summit in Manila (REUTERS) - How much of the geopolitical struggle between the United States and China for control of natural resources and critical infrastructure in the region is there in Washington's positioning toward leaders like Milei or with Bolsonaro? - These questions are very complex. But in the most evident terms: China has everything it needs in rare earths, and the most worked and developed deposits are in Chinese territory. The United States has a very clear advantage over China: it is essentially a self-sufficient country, but it lacks rare earths. China, on the other hand, has shortfalls in energy, in minerals in general, and in food, despite having been for more than ten years the largest economy in the world in terms of production. And what China does not have, South America —Brazil, Argentina, and others— has in abundance: energy, minerals, and agricultural production. Our relationship with China, contrary to what many think, has nothing ideological about it. It is natural, pragmatic, complementary, and necessary. With the United States the relationship is inevitable: it is the great regional power, omnipresent, with the greatest capacity to do good and evil. The best thing is to maintain the best possible relationship, but without loss of sovereignty. That Brazil will not allow. - What role did the United States play in Flávio Bolsonaro's departure and in the triangulation with Argentina? - It is difficult to know precisely. I have no non-public information on that matter. But I believe the United States has very clear interests and also a behavior of rationality. Lula's personal relationship with Trump is not bad: there has never been any problem, they got along well. And the American president does not like to bet on those who do not turn out well. Although he did not formally support Flávio Bolsonaro, there was a very natural perception that he was his favorite. But the truth is that this is already a family that no longer has the aura it once had. The cost of maintaining that support and losing relevance in the relationship with the most important country in Latin America after the United States —which is Brazil— is of interest to no one in Washington, including President Trump himself. So I do not see this as a big problem.