The next political phenomenon that the Government sees and Milei's ultimatum to his officials

Javier Milei at the Palacio Libertad during the visit of Pope Leo XIV The economy at the service of the person. Humanism and sensitivity. Pope Leo XIV left numerous messages in the speeches he delivered during his visit to Argentina. It is impossible not to transfer them to the political sphere, even though his word has an evangelizing meaning. At the Casa Rosada they still do not have a definitive conclusion on whether this historic event will generate a change in the electorate's aspirations. It seems too soon to say. Each official has his or her own reading. One of them, in permanent dialogue with Javier Milei, believed that the main political effect of this trip is the empowerment of the Church as a highly legitimized institution. In the same vein, another of them said: "In addition to mobilizing 8 million people across the country, they were able to deliver a speech that, had any other party or political leader said it, would have earned them a telling-off from the Casa Rosada." This is no minor observation. The narrative that Kirchnerist Peronism was unable to use during these years can now be embodied more easily by the Church, this time with the platform already installed by the Supreme Pontiff. In the Government they see that they will not stop having tension with this institution, which Milei did not receive on any occasion until the Pope's visit and the protocol ceremonies for national holidays. Pope Leo XIV applauds while the President of Argentina, Javier Milei, prepares to address the authorities, members of civil society and the diplomatic corps at the Palacio Libertad Although they did not make it public, in the President's circle they chewed over their anger at the attitude of a very important ecclesiastical figure who called Security Minister Alejandra Monteoliva to ask her to bring more prisoners to Devoto Prison for Leo XIV's activity. The discussion was heated, but the official told him she could do nothing because it was an administrative and judicial matter. These short circuits had already spilled over into the public sphere. Before Leo XIV's visit, one of the most charismatic figures in the ecclesiastical sphere, the Archbishop of Córdoba, Ángel Rossi, cast doubt on the figures published by the Government. "They say they lifted millions out of poverty, but they put them into misery," he said. And the libertarian economy oscillates between positive and negative figures. In the Government they acknowledge that it is proving difficult to bring the Consumer Price Index (CPI) toward 1% monthly. October inflation was 2.2%, but they emphasize that the core was 1.5%. The LCG consultancy states that the basket currently used to measure prices (drawn up in 2004 and 2005) weighs services less than the methodological update that INDEC had prepared for this year. If the Government had not postponed its implementation, that figure would have been 2.4%. Quite a few already imagine the Church's demand next year. The Archbishop of Buenos Aires, Monsignor Jorge García Cuerva, will be able to do the same before Milei next year during the Te Deum for May 25. Last July, he called for strengthening the commitment to those Argentines who currently suffer "the burden of the lack of work and the affliction of poverty." The Superintendence of Occupational Risks (SRT) reported days ago that there are 32,429 fewer companies since November 2023 and 10,234 so far this year. Leo XIV at the Palacio Libertad Although with less social legitimacy to pick up that demand, Peronism will surely seek to campaign with similar slogans next year, when the dynamics of the budget will be key. Some tensions are already visible on the horizon. In December they believe there will be a primary and financial deficit. It would be the second time this year that this anchor of the macroeconomic program is breached. In the libertarian administration they say it will be temporary, since that record will be conditioned by the payment of Christmas bonuses in the national public administration, but they acknowledge that it is not a minor event, given that this did not happen either in 2024 or 2025. For some time now, Luis Caputo has been warning the Government's political officials that they must start deploying more and more aces up their sleeve to avoid skirting fiscal red. That situation implies fewer tools from the political side. The Argentine Association of Budget and Public Financial Administration (ASAP) published an executive report on Budget Financial Execution in which it warns that 84.1% of the credit in force through October has already been used. This is the highest execution of the last ten years, compared to an average of 71.8% at this point in the year. They analyze that they will have to increase the total amount of the Budget. Execution of the 2016-2026 Budget. (ASAP) In the midst of this context, the Government seeks to accelerate the approval of the 2027 Budget and, to do so, had to accept requests from the allies of the PRO, UCR, Provincias Unidas and Argentina Federal. The report in the Budget Committee is scheduled for Tuesday the 17th, the vote in the Chamber of Deputies on Wednesday the 25th, and passage to the Senate in the extraordinary December sessions. The negotiators in the Chamber of Deputies committed to guaranteeing funds for Disability benefits, although they have not yet specified allocations, distribution or update mechanisms. With the universities, they are seeking an agreement that combines more resources with benefits in employer contributions. Provincial works have already been added for the governors and allies, without detailing which ones or for what amounts. And the PRO was authorized to extend the automotive and auto parts promotion regimes it had requested until 2032. The Budget is an indispensable condition for accountability with the IMF. "It will be more expensive not to have it," say those close to the President, who two weeks earlier asked his officials during the Cabinet meeting that its approval was mandatory, as well as the Political Reform. All before the end of the year. The Menems did not dislike the idea of waiting until the first months of next year, but they complied with the directive. The President does not usually intervene in political strategy, but when he does, there are no double readings. "They know they have an obligation to move forward. It is an ultimatum," says a member of the Political Table regarding the ruling party's negotiators. Karina Milei and her political team Milei and the economic team consider that the approval of the Political Reform with the greatest possible speed is vital. The objective is to send multiple signals to the market: to buy time so that the economy recovers before the pre-electoral moments of volatility begin, to limit Peronism's organization for the first round, and to generate a political agreement with governors and allied parties. The moment is key. Those close to Caputo are watching closely what could happen at the next meeting of the United States Federal Reserve (FED). The GMA Capital consultancy reported that the market gives an 87% probability that the reference rate will rise 250 basis points. That tightening of monetary policy could pose challenges for the performance of Argentine instruments. "If the market consensus is above 50%, the FED will raise," they resign themselves in the Economy Ministry. In this regard, an unimpeachable Government source confirmed to Infobae that the details of the draft of the bill are already being closed with the allied governors. "The idea now is to have 37 votes. We are going to close with the PRO, the Radicals and some provincial deputies. The goal is to issue the report this week," he indicated. These are conversations that are still being held underground. Another of the main negotiators of LLA said that the only thing left pending is "to see how the joint lists are integrated in the October elections." There are governors with whom a verbal agreement has already been reached directly on what position they will occupy in the Senate and Chamber of Deputies seats, and whether they will compete under colectoras or under another scheme. There were many meetings that did not come to light in which it was also discussed how La Libertad Avanza will compete at the provincial level. In several of them it was already decided not to compete for the governorship, but that decision was not communicated to the grassroots militants so as not to demoralize them. "An agreement is being worked on, but the national legislators who dream of competing cannot be disparaged. Nor those who want to be local candidates. They have to be kept on board," they point out. The Neuquén native Nadia Márquez is one of those who would not be a candidate for governor. In the party structure they deny that it has been decided, but they do not deny that this is part of the conversations with Governor Rolando Figueroa. Something similar happens with Luis Petri, who would not be put forward to compete against Alfredo Cornejo's Radicalism. Quite a few think he could break away and compete on his own. He does not lack desire or vote intention. Curiously, a member of Karina Milei's circle referred to the Electoral Reform to be discussed this week in the Constitutional Affairs Committee and said that, in reality, that call represents "a challenge for Patricia Bullrich" to see if she manages to align herself with the Casa Rosada. The bloc leader took it upon herself to clarify, away from the microphones, that she will vote in favor. These would not be moments to play with the mood of the former Security Minister. This Tuesday is the deadline to present the members for the Senate for the Council of the Magistracy, the influential body that nominates and removes federal and national judges. She is the one who has to sign the letter for the nominations. No one else. The first slot for the ruling party will be Nadia Márquez, with whom Bullrich clashed weeks ago. Will she agree to send it? She is not expected to do the opposite. Since the first minority is entitled to two seats instead of one, the libertarians will send the Salta native Gonzalo Guzmán Coraita as the second slot. Thus, the Córdoba native Luis Juez will not be able to renew his seat. But Justicialismo made a move weeks ago: it added a seat to surpass the 21 members that La Libertad Avanza has in order to keep that additional seat. Even so, they indicate that at the time of the legislative turnover, the ruling party had 20 seats because Juez joined later. It will surely end up in court. In the Chamber of Deputies the equation is simpler and the libertarians will send the names of the Córdoba native Gonzalo Roca and the Buenos Aires native Giselle Castelnuovo. Bullrich will meet again with Karina this Tuesday morning at the Casa Rosada, in a new meeting of the Political Table. It is still an enigma what they will say to each other and whether they will disguise the short circuits of recent weeks. Three members of that structure downplay the matter and believe there will be no confrontations. Martín Menem posted a selfie of the political table gathered at the Casa Rosada The President is not expected to summon her to Olivos. Nor will he hold a Cabinet meeting this week. Milei still believes that Bullrich is the leader who best complements him in political terms and continues to see her as a running mate. That is fading strongly as the days go by. On both sides. The President knows Bullrich's desire to aspire to the Presidency. His offer to pave that path for her toward 2031 is a single one: to give the green light within the entire ruling party for primaries to be held in the 2029 legislative elections. If he achieves re-election, Milei believes that his succession should take place within that framework, and that that market of candidates will be settled in free competition within the sphere of the center-right. Whoever wins will be the best: a kind of translation of economic theory to the political plane. Those who make up the closest circle of the Milei brothers consider that the deployment of that internal race will affect the dynamics of the ruling party. "It is going to be something like Somalia. An anomy of power, because they will all be fighting over it," is a verdict repeated in an office of the Casa Rosada. In other wings they agree. Although many like to look at the medium term, the truth is that the Government must channel its chances of re-election as soon as possible. "To speak, you have to win," the pro-government streamers have sung on more than one occasion.