Red Circle: Milei after the Pope, a no-holds-barred internal feud, and a contested future

Pope Leo walks alongside the President of Argentina, Javier Milei, during a farewell ceremony at Ministro Pistarini International Airport Less than 24 hours had passed since Javier Milei bid farewell to Pope Leo XIV at the foot of the plane, and embraced, still moved, in a three-way hug with his sister Karina and Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno, when inside the Government House the palace infighting that had been on standby during the pontiff's visit was already flaring up once again, keeping the inner circle on edge. The Government's decision-making system is so fragile that, behind closed doors, there are differing positions regarding the votes Milei has in the Senate to move forward with the suspension of the PASO primaries, a top priority for the Casa Rosada on the edge of the parliamentary calendar. "The votes are there, today we have 38," sources very close to Diego Santilli, the official in charge of negotiating with the governors, told this outlet on Thursday. "And what do those votes depend on?" this outlet asked. "On those who tell us yes keeping their word," they replied. Part of those negotiations dates back to the trip to Paris in early October, when it seemed the deal was about to be closed. At that very moment, the Chief of Staff was landing in Corrientes alongside Karina Milei to meet with Governor Juan Pablo Valdés, to whom they brought a draft of the political reform with the response to the modifications requested by the provincial leaders, in particular the lists of adhesions —colectoras— proposed as a bargaining chip to support the suspension of the primaries. Alfredo Cornejo and Maximiliano Pullaro are key in that regard. That same day, Patricia Bullrich, increasingly determined to challenge the Milei siblings —"She is not going to break away, but she already has her own agenda," her circle reinforced— was doing the math in her Senate office. "The PRO?" her aides asked her, referring to the three-member bloc. "Nope," she replied with a half-smile. When it came to the Radicals' turn, the ten-member bloc chaired by the Corrientes native Eduardo Vischi, "Peteco," Bullrich called one of them by phone and put him on speaker: she received an answer different from the information that, in theory, was held at the Casa Rosada. Karina Milei, Diego Santilli and Juan Pablo Valdés The leader of the LLA bloc in the upper chamber is convinced that the Government still does not have enough votes to hold a session and believes that is why they seek to expose her. That is why that same Thursday Bullrich called from her X account for the disability law, which has half-sanction from the Chamber of Deputies, to be taken up: "The country we are building is with all Argentines, with no one left out," she stressed, imbued with the papal spirit. She did so because she knows that Luis Caputo, "Toto," is working to delay that bill, which was agreed in the lower house with Kirchnerist opposition deputies, as much as possible or, at best, to ensure that its passage does not respect the agreements reached in the Chamber of Deputies which, according to the Treasury, violate the fiscal accounts. Around those same hours, Martín Menem publicly said he expected the half-sanction with the suspension of the PASO to come out of the Senate "within the next 15 days." The relationship between the Menems and Bullrich hangs by a thread, if that thread has not already snapped entirely. On Friday, on a tour of the province of Buenos Aires, between trips, Santilli spoke by phone with half a dozen governors to learn the state of play. The Chief of Staff reports directly to the President's sister and tries to coordinate with the former Security Minister, but that decision-making system is broken, and it was exposed once again once the Pope's plane was flying toward Lima. The Government's usual agenda, which was suspended for four days due to Leo XIV's tour, looks increasingly unattractive to a large part of society, and that wear and tear impacts not only relations behind closed doors but also the delays in the agreements with the governors. It is a challenge for Santilli, perhaps one of the most significant of his extensive multi-party career —he describes himself as a "natural optimist"— and it opens an ever-larger question mark over his run for the Buenos Aires governorship, about which he speaks with Milei almost weekly, despite internal doubts. For example, from the Menems, ambitious in their need to gain more territorial power, who believe it is an unattainable goal and that for that reason the coordinating minister should put his energy into the city of Buenos Aires. That is one of the unknowns. The other is to what level the relationship between the Mileis and Bullrich can be strained. In the Government they are certain that a sector of the inner circle and the press is pushing for a rupture, and that the senator herself is collaborating toward that goal. That is why a repost by the President on X drew attention, one that fed that theory of the political and media inner circle, although the message from a libertarian forum user included "the Menems" in that operation. "Patricia is wrong if she thinks that if Milei does badly she will have an opportunity: if Milei goes to shit, we all blow up," slipped a member of the political table. Bullrich believes the same thing, with one caveat: she is working on her own project in case the President does not blow up, but she does not arrive competitive enough in 2027. That is where she believes she has an opportunity. It is not what they believe at the Casa Rosada. But beyond individual beliefs, the Government's economic and political program is starting to look increasingly exhausted. Part of that exhaustion was reflected in the Pope's messages, whose depth and reach surprised even the Church leadership. "He knocked it out of the park; beyond the spirit, his messages are study books, and he delivered them in a way that no one can say 'this is aimed at so-and-so,'" they added from the Episcopal Conference. It is true, however, that when Leo XIV stressed in his first speech at the Palacio Libertad, before political, diplomatic, judicial authorities and civil society, that "the economy must be at the service of the person, and not the person at the service of the economy," everyone looked at the President, who was attentively following the words from the stage. The same happened during the pontiff's visit to the Pequeño Cottolengo Don Orione or at the meeting at the UCA with union leaders and social activists, which gave those sectors some breathing room. "He pointed out the problems aimed at the current government, and now expects everyone to take responsibility," analyzed a leader who participated in that event. Martín Menem and Patricia Bullrich The Government is now trying to find in political agreements with the governors the results it failed to obtain in the economy. October inflation registered an increase of 2.2% according to INDEC, slightly above what was projected by private consultancies. The accumulated inflation for 2026, at 33.1%, has already surpassed that of 2025, which as of November of that year stood at 31.4%. That stagnation around 2%, combined with job destruction and future expectations, is starting to become a complex cocktail for the ruling party, which has so far navigated it without major social difficulties thanks to the fragmentation of the opposition offer. According to the latest measurement by the consultancy Atlas Intel, unemployment ranked in October as the main problem for Argentines, at 50%, above the "economic situation" and "inflation," which also make the podium, below, in any case, "corruption," which appears as the second most important issue, at 40%. It is an issue that also worried the Casa Rosada this year, due to the investigations surrounding the $LIBRA case, the ANDIS case, and the exponential growth of Manuel Adorni's assets which, for the most part, have just given good news to the Milei siblings, and the former Chief of Staff, regarding the close of the year. For those news to be favorable, the intercession of Juan Bautista Mahiques was key, who flooded the Senate with candidates for judges, appellate judges and prosecutors and turned Milei into the record-setting president for appointments since the creation of the Judicial Council, without Milei showing interest in that prize. President Javier Milei in Paris at a meeting with allied governors "Juan delivered for everyone and everything," sources close to the Justice Minister stressed. That "everything" and "everyone" involves nominations and cases, and includes the Milei siblings, governors and operatives, leaders and former officials, and the system in general. It is the explanation for why sectors of the Government and of politics have recently been enthusiastic about the idea of crowning him as Attorney General before the end of the year, a project that, however, from the minister's own circle they began to discredit given the Casa Rosada's limited political room for maneuver. In the Senate they say he would have the votes, despite not having Bullrich's sympathy. It is the goal of the minister and of some sectors of the Judiciary and politics who closely follow the work of the acting attorney general Eduardo Casal, interim since the departure of Alejandra Gils Carbó. In recent days, the Government even watched with annoyance the activity of Sergio Rodríguez, of the Administrative Investigations Prosecutor's Office (PIA), who requested to take over the $LIBRA file after the dismissal of the Milei siblings in that investigation. Different is the case of the Supreme Court, where there are much more fluid channels of communication with the Executive, despite the fact that Judge Ariel Lijo, tireless, remains optimistic after the failure of his previous nomination. That optimism lies, to a large extent, in the reception from the governors, whom he embraced at length last Sunday, as did Mahiques, at the meeting at the Palacio Libertad that had the Pope as its central protagonist. Horacio Rosatti and Juan Bautista Mahiques The judicial front can have a direct impact on the current negotiations in Congress. For example, with the legislators from Tucumán or Salta, whose governors interpreted provincial laws in pursuit of reelection. That interpretation may receive a ruling from the Court when the electoral calendar begins. Who guarantees, for instance, that Osvaldo Jaldo and Gustavo Sáenz will not suffer a setback from the highest tribunal? Or the case of Gildo Insfrán, who is going for his ninth term but does not participate in the negotiations with the ruling party. Sáenz, in that regard, has already sent emissaries to sound out the fourth floor of the Palace of Courts: he would not have received a good answer.