A litmus test for the future of the Government

The echoes of the Pope's words were still resonating when, on Thursday morning, the order was activated that the Government pushed through to accelerate the treatment of the bill that could define the final stretch of its term: the suspension of the PASO primaries. In its debate, not only is the candidate selection system for next year at stake, but also the capacity to reach agreements with the governors, to send messages of predictability that calm the markets, and even to avoid an internal fracture. It is even a signal of governability. It is the law that can mark the beginning of a recovery, or the beginning of decline. Just as the arduous approval of the Bases law gave the original impetus to Javier Milei's administration (and its failure would have led to an early power crisis), this initiative is the one that will define the character of the final stretch of his term. It was the Government itself that overloaded it with these interpretations. Martín Menem and Karina Milei, at the mass celebrated by Pope Leo XIV in the city of CórdobaPresidencyThe first to press the accelerator was Martín Menem, who declared that "in the next two weeks, God willing, we should be advancing with the half-sanction" of the PASO bill in the Senate. Shortly after, the chairman of the Constitutional Affairs committee, the libertarian Agustín Coto, called a meeting for Tuesday in order to issue a committee report. A sudden double move that stemmed from two prior assessments, debated in the intimacy of power. The first, more conceptual: that the Government could not keep going in circles in the swamp where it ran aground in recent months, with a sluggish economy, dozens of bills stuck in Congress, and an inability to articulate its governance. For months they have been talking about the same issues without being able to show any progress. The close of Leo XIV's historic visit was the opportunity to try to break that inertia. The governor of Mendoza, Alfredo Cornejo, received by cabinet chief Diego Santilli. Also participating were Eduardo "Lule" Menem and Martín Menem. The second decision, more strategic, took place about ten days ago, when it was resolved to decouple the negotiation over the PASO and the budget from the definitive closing of electoral agreements with the governors. "It was decided not to condition the dialogue over the primaries on the closing of the lists. This is paid in cash because nobody has any certainty about what will happen next year," summarizes a Karinista source familiar with the conversations. The first scene of this series will be staged on Tuesday in the Senate's Constitutional Affairs committee. Technically, the ruling party will have to perform a legislative pirouette that usually proves indigestible to the sensitive spirits of senators: it will request the replacement of the original bill, which spoke of eliminating the PASO, with another one proposing their temporary suspension. This new version also incorporates the system of adhesions, colloquially known as "colectoras." This addition was part of the negotiation with the Radicals, particularly governors Alfredo Cornejo and Maximiliano Pullaro. Nadia Marquez and Agustin Coto, during a meeting of the Constitutional Affairs committeeHernan Zenteno - La NacionBut there are two problems. The first is that just as the adhesions add Radical votes, they can also scare away votes of their own, because it is a system that has been questioned in many provinces, for example by Patricia Bullrich and Luis Juez. The second drawback is that almost nobody knows the new bill. Only an incomplete draft has circulated, which even most of the ruling party's own bench is unaware of. Despite this, in the Government they repeat that "if the committee was convened, it is because a report is going to be signed." Others in LLA are not so sure that everything can be processed so quickly. And they doubt even more that the votes are there for approval on the floor. There they have 21 votes of their own, to which would be added 7 Radicals and an imprecise number of senators who answer to the governors. Pro still says it is opposed. At this point in the story, a tremendously relevant subplot appears: the Bullrich front. The senator has long repeated that the person responsible for gathering the votes is Diego Santilli, because it is part of the agreement with the governors. The Government responds that "the one in charge of collecting the signatures for the committee report is the head of the ruling party's bloc, that is, her." The senator conveyed that she is unaware of what the understanding with the governors is and does not know how the votes stand. She is awaiting a call from the cabinet chief to fill her in. Pope Leo XIV greets Senator Patricia Bullrich, as Javier Milei looks on@patobullrichIt is a scene that had never happened before and expresses the distrust that has germinated toward Bullrich since she flirted with the idea of her own presidential candidacy, for which keeping the PASO would serve her. Although she insists that breaking with Milei or competing against him in a primary is not on her mind, the issue escalated to the point that yesterday the Financial Times ran a piece on the tensions between them. The pressure is such that in the Casa Rosada they say that if the PASO committee report is not signed this Tuesday, her continuation at the head of the violet bloc will be evaluated, because "it would mean she is not in a position to fulfill the task she has. And if she does not do her job, there is no point in her continuing as bloc leader. This issue is a test of loyalty to the project." It sounds more like a threat than a plan of action, but it is nonetheless a warning signal for the libertarian ecosystem, because it would expose it to a fissure of unforeseen costs. The LLA bloc in the Senate, after approving the labor reformSantiago OrozIn recent weeks there have been signs of a strained climate. The libertarian senators' bloc lost the homogeneity it showed throughout the year because several began to see the moves of Nadia Márquez, the protégée of Karina Milei and the Menems, as a challenge to Bullrich's leadership. There have been disorderly meetings, and several also began to gauge to what extent the agreement with the governors does not conspire against their own territorial interests. Few have political autonomy, but it is perceived that the internal dynamic has cracked. An eventual failure on this part of the political reform would also demonstrate that there is no chance of even a point-specific agreement with the provincial leaders, which would lead Milei to a complete rethink of his electoral strategy. "In that case we would have to evaluate a more autonomous, more self-reliant scheme, because we could not count on the support of the governors," they explain at the political table. It would be a sign of weakness. Luis Caputo at the mass celebrated by Pope Leo XIV in the city of CórdobaPresidencyUnder this hypothesis, the political gesture that Luis Caputo has been demanding for so many months to calm the markets would also fade away entirely. It is remarkable how the horizon has darkened in this area. The minister's effort to anticipate his financial program in order to demonstrate that he has sufficient funds to face any currency turbulence was diluted by the latest reports from the main rating agencies. The country risk reflects this. Their calculation is that the Government will have a little more than US$22 billion actually available next year between net reserves, additional purchases, and future interventions (not counting the swaps with the U.S. and China). If the electoral dollarization scenario is the expected one, tension will increase, but there will be enough left to face it. But if the process spirals, Caputo would need, according to the consultancies, at least another US$12 billion more. This means there will be less availability to face debt maturities. And this is the scenario the markets fear. What do they demand to avoid this self-fulfilling prophecy? Certainty of an electoral victory for Milei. SoakedThe Pope's visit left a series of extraordinary snapshots. Multitudes gathered by a message of faith and hope; a political, business, and union leadership sharing, at least for a while, the same space; moving life stories held up as examples of humanity. Rarely does Argentina coalesce around such uplifting images. A feeling of calm amid a chaotic country and an accelerated modernity. Leo XIV had an advantage over what would have been Francisco's impossible visit: he managed to deliver his profound and pointed messages openly without anyone being able to appropriate them. He is the Pope of everyone equally. He left remarks and words of encouragement for every sector of the leadership. But above all, he was able to speak of the evangelical message without being distorted in the interpretations. And his voice reached, powerful and warm, a society hungry for understanding, listening, and healing. "The transversality of compassion," defines Pablo Semán. Pope Leo XIV before the mass at the Basilica of LujánSoledad AznarezIt is true that throughout his 18 public interventions he collided with the backdrop of libertarian dogma, beyond the natural defense the Government mounted. He spoke of prioritizing the poor and the suffering, of humanizing the economy and Artificial Intelligence, and of the "care of the word." He was clear, but moderate. He softened the drastic report that the local bishops had given him so as not to seem confrontational. But it is clear that he traversed an argumentative line uncomfortable for Milei. But at the same time he also challenged Peronism, perhaps less with words (though he did that too) than with deeds. Leo XIV drew multitudes as politics has long been unable to do, especially in the popular sectors that historically were the base of the PJ. The Pope expressed an absent representation, in the words of a priest, "he gathered millions of sheep that have no shepherd." He laid bare a profound orphanhood of leadership. A stab at Peronism's mobilizing tradition. The massive masses demonstrated that people still have the capacity to mobilize, but only if they feel called. It has been happening throughout the year with DJ priest Guilherme Peixoto, with the national team, with Indio Solari; never through a call from the political leadership. It is an institutional disconnection that functions as an alert for the system, even if people keep voting every two years. The bishops sang "Volver," by Carlos GardelLeo XIV's passage also demonstrated the appeal the papal figure generates in majority-Catholic countries and the immense gap that exists with the rest of the ecclesiastical hierarchy. While the pontiff draws multitudes, priests and bishops contort themselves to fill their parishes. Evidence of a selective faith that connects emotionally, not by mandate or tradition. A lesson for the Church, which was also challenged by the Pope on its capacity for listening and closeness to the most marginalized. There is a shared conviction that neither will the Government mutate into a model of consensus, peace, and love, nor will Peronism magically reconnect with the popular base that eludes it. As Alejandro Katz points out, "there is no political discourse in Argentina capable of capturing that papal message and turning it into a program of government, because in some sense the simplest translations of that message in our context point to failed political experiences." A crowd awaits Pope Leo XIV in Palermo for his first mass in ArgentinaFabián MarelliBut probably the most relevant thing about Leo XIV's passage through Argentina, from the political point of view, was the repercussion in society, more than in the leadership. Because perhaps hidden behind the fervor and enthusiasm of this week's massive gatherings a subtle change in demands may emerge, a resignification of values that had been lost. Values more related to the communal, to charity, to the social. Concepts greatly devalued in recent years, especially by the wear inflicted on them by the last Peronist government. As an example of that erosion, Ignacio Ramírez and Luis Alberto Quevedo report in their latest book, "The Great Transformation of Argentine Political Culture," that between 2014 and 2024 the percentage of those who said they trusted others "not at all" rose from 10% to 28%. And the percentage of those who considered solidarity with the most vulnerable people a fundamental aspect of good citizenship fell from 38% to 33%. Very subjective but very deep indicators of growing disaffection. Pope Leo XIV with Marta, the woman who moved him during his visit to the Cottolengo Don OrioneVatican Pool - Getty Images South AmericaIf the demand for those eclipsed values transcends the sensibility of these days and turns into direct demands on the leadership, a reset of the emotional frame of reference for the coming electoral year would be taking place, a context that was shaped starting with the pandemic and came to a boil with the 2023 election. A climate in which the chainsaw had a justice-seeking meaning in the face of the abuses of the State and the slogan "there's no money" was a catchy refrain in the face of runaway inflation. A shrewd official at the Casa Rosada said these days, without irony: "We have to have a more religious profile." And a Peronist mayor from the conurbation who attended the Luján mass added: "We are not up to the task they set before us." Both refer, at bottom, to the same reasoning: society is drifting far away from them, and although every two years people are obliged to vote, the representation of a shared project, of a promise that generates expectations, of a rallying message, seems like an impossible challenge. The passage of a shepherd who heals wounded souls is never irrelevant. The hard part is following him.