He wept openly. The emotion, always just beneath the surface in him, overwhelmed Javier Milei as he shook hands with Leo XIV for the last time on the tarmac at Ezeiza. He thanked him for the visit, watched him board the plane, and then melted into a mystical embrace with his sister Karina and Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno. When the Pope took off, the problems were still there. Barely 24 hours passed before it became known that the inflation rate had risen again in October, above 2%. Official statistics revealed that the destruction of businesses continues and that, for the fifteenth consecutive month, registered jobs were lost in August. Within days the recession will be formally confirmed, when the September activity figures are released — figures that no miracle will keep from adding up to two consecutive quarters of decline. It is a picture that dangerously strains Milei's greatest asset as a leader: public confidence in his skill as an economist. Various opinion studies reflect how citizen pessimism is crystallizing. AtlasIntel, which produces its reports for Bloomberg, records that 50% believe the country's situation will be worse six months from now. The President's disapproval, according to that same poll, rose from 57% to 60.6% in one month, while approval fell from 39% to 36.2%. Evolution of the President's image, according to AtlasIntel. The deterioration of these indicators agitates the markets. The country-risk gauge, even with some relief this week, is beginning to reflect a shift in the central question investors are asking themselves. Until recently, the unknown guiding their behavior was whether Milei could lose reelection in 2027. Now another, more pressing question emerges: can he still win? Emotion at Milei's farewell to Pope Leo XIV at Ezeiza International Airport. Hernán Zenteno. The implied probability of Milei's reelection derived from the country-risk rate fell from 84% in July to 45%, according to calculations by Fernando Marull y Asociados, even though the firm considered it a market overreaction. An investment bank with the clout of Morgan Stanley raised its forecasts of a possible Argentine debt default. To that domestic front is added the global shock stemming from the war in Iran, which also does not help in glimpsing a nearby oasis. The metaphor of the ship. Patricia Bullrich at the papal mass in Palermo. The unease intensifies in the face of the internal duel posed by Patricia Bullrich. The former minister and current head of the libertarian senators has for weeks been performing the choreography of a candidate running for President. What began as a frolic on social media, with messages of differentiation and Lali Espósito songs, has become a possible focal point of fracture in a ruling party that has nothing to spare. Milei bared his teeth at Bullrich for the first time since he accused her of throwing bombs into kindergartens. He played by the rule of plausible deniability she has been using and posted a message on Instagram without naming names, with the following phrase: "There are people willing to sink the ship when they realize they will not be the captain." Leo XIV was still in Argentina, and a line of libertarian exegetes rushed to interpret that the target of the accusation was undoubtedly Bullrich. Two days later, the same translators read as a gesture of détente the statement by deputy Lilia Lemoine, of undisputed loyalty to Milei, about how successful a presidential ticket with Bullrich as running mate would be. Milei's suggestive Instagram post: was it aimed at Bullrich? The senator was given an ultimatum to show her loyalty. Martín Menem, Karina Milei's chief operator, pressed her to move forward with the suspension of the mandatory primary elections (PASO), a bill that has been stalled since the end of last year. In sectors of the government there are suspicions that Bullrich is dragging her feet because she does not want to remove a legal instrument that could serve her dream of reaching the Casa Rosada. The possibility that Milei would allow her to run against him within La Libertad Avanza (LLA) sounds utopian. But a system of internal competition and vote accumulation like the one the PASO constitute could serve Bullrich in building an alternative center-right front. Suspending the primaries would give the President's sister a monopoly on the pen to fill the party lists, would create obstacles for internal dissent, and would complicate the ordering of Peronism, which currently lacks a natural leadership. But electoral rules do not work magic. If Milei does not win in the first round, with more than 45%, or 40% and a lead of more than 10 points over the runner-up, the opposition's division will be little more than an anecdote. Rejection rates well above 50% augur a challenging runoff for the libertarian leader. Passing the electoral reform became a strategic obligation with an eye on the markets as well. The government cannot afford the signal of political fragility that losing the vote on the bill including the cancellation (at least for this time) of the PASO would imply. LLA has 21 senators and a minimum of 37 is needed to pass the law. Cabinet Chief Diego Santilli stitched together an agreement with the Radical governors, who guarantee him at least 7 of that party's 10 votes in the Senate. The agreement involves financial concessions in the budget law and commitments of non-competition in the provincial elections. Pro, which has three senators, has still not yielded in its resistance to eliminating the primaries. In the government they count on the support of the Neuquén legislator who answers to Rolando Figueroa and some seats without a clear home outside Congress, such as those of Santa Cruz natives Natalia Gadano and José María Carambia. To unlock victory, three Peronist governors who cooperate with the Casa Rosada are key: Raúl Jalil (Catamarca), Osvaldo Jaldo (Tucumán), and Gustavo Sáenz (Salta), who control 5 senators. They are being tugged at by Massism and Kirchnerism with threats of open hostility in their territories if they help Milei on this point. Martín Menem and Karina Milei sat with Llaryora and Schiaretti at the same papal mass in Córdoba. Presidencia. The operation against the PASO brings to the surface differences in approach within a fractured ruling party. Santilli is eager to close agreements with the provinces and allied parties, while Menem seeks to wait for a moment of greater government strength before sealing a commitment on the local lists. Luis Caputo wants to show a solid alliance as soon as possible to the bondholders, but resists letting the demands of partners throw the Treasury's accounts out of balance. The Economy Minister also has reservations about the advancement of the disability financing bill, approved in the Chamber of Deputies almost unanimously and now in the Senate. Bullrich, who holds a master's degree in political opportunism, announced her intention to speed it up while the impact of the images of Leo XIV at the Cottolengo Don Orione in Claypole was still fresh. The senator is also pushing the bill against gambling addiction, strangely frozen, on which the Catholic Church is pressing hard. Pope Leo XIV at the Cottolengo Don Orione. DANIEL DAL ZENNARO - EFE. Thus spoke Leo. Without raising his voice or abandoning courtesy for a single second, Leo XIV exposed the government to a third crisis that overlaps with the economic complications and the internal political turbulence. He expressed universal principles that contrast with the individualist morality Milei has imposed as the dominant criterion of public debate over the past three years. He placed the human being above economic models, advocated for people with disabilities and for the vulnerable in general as deserving of priority attention. He described the State as a necessary actor for balancing inequalities. He warned about the working poor and emphasized that political power needs limits. He marked a possible course for Argentine democracy when he defended "the care of words" and respect for those who think differently — references he did not make during his visit to Uruguay. Leo XIV and Milei at the Palacio Libertad. TIZIANA FABI - AFP. He wielded social justice in the kingdom of the chainsaw, but steered clear of partisan mud and baffled those who kneaded the papal word with the intention of reducing it to an opposition manifesto. Can the leaders of Peronism disregard the reality that Pope Leo described? Do the condemnation of corruption, the denunciation of the narco advance in the villas, and the plea in favor of dissent not challenge them too? Beyond the tears, Milei gave few signs of how he processed the pastoral visit and the expression of the crowds in Palermo, Córdoba, and Luján. After Leo XIV's departure, his initial reaction was one of caution, a reflection of rationality: he tweeted little and said less, refrained from insulting anyone, and avoided any dissonance with the spirit of serenity the Pope left behind. A crowd waits for Pope Leo XIV in Palermo for his first mass in Argentina. Fabián Marelli. The first speech he gave after the release of the bad inflation figure was to warn that he would open the economy further with the intention of pushing prices down. It is in line with his insistence that not "an iota" of the economic program will move. In Luján, the Pope bid farewell with an invocation: "Argentina, rise and walk." Milei, for now, entrenches himself in a kind of stillness. His challenge, in the year he has left before the ballot box, is to discover whether the firmness that brought him to power is enough to keep him there, or whether the fear of losing it will finally force him to get moving.