In the midst of Buen Fin, when credit cards take center stage due to the deals and promotions, Mexico faces a public debt that will continue to grow. For 2027, the federal government projects a primary surplus of 216.9 billion pesos, when it would need 603.1 billion to keep debt from rising as a proportion of the economy, warned México Evalúa.
In its study "10 points on the public finances of the 2027 Economic Package," the organization compares public finances to a credit card on which less than the minimum needed to keep the debt from continuing to grow is being paid.
According to its calculations, the government would fall short by 386.2 billion pesos to stabilize the debt balance relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). If it wanted to begin reducing it, it would need a primary surplus of 788.4 billion pesos, more than triple what is planned.
The analysis warns that public debt would rise from 54% of GDP in 2026 to 55% in 2027 and reach 56.4% in 2030, according to the official projections themselves.
However, the outlook could be more complicated. The organization ran 10,000 simulations on the behavior of the economy, inflation, the exchange rate, and interest rates, and found a 48.4% probability that debt would exceed 60% of GDP in 2030.
The study notes that between 2008 and 2025 the public deficit exceeded official targets in 12 of 18 fisci…
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In the midst of Buen Fin, when credit cards take center stage due to the offers and promotions, Mexico faces a public debt that will continue to grow. For 2027, the federal government plans a primary surplus of 216.9 billion pesos, when it would need 603.1 billion to keep debt from increasing as a proportion of the economy, warned México Evalúa. In its study "10 points on the public finances of the 2027 Economic Package," the organization compares public finances to a credit card on which less than the minimum necessary is being paid to keep the debt from continuing to grow. According to its calculations, the government would fall short by 386.2 billion pesos to stabilize the debt balance relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). If it wanted to begin reducing it, it would need a primary surplus of 788.4 billion pesos, more than triple what is planned. The analysis warns that public debt would rise from 54% of GDP in 2026 to 55% in 2027 and reach 56.4% in 2030, according to the official projections themselves. However, the outlook could be more complicated. The organization ran 10,000 simulations on the behavior of the economy, inflation, the exchange rate, and interest rates, and found a 48.4% probability that debt would exceed 60% of GDP in 2030. The study notes that between 2008 and 2025 the public deficit exceeded official targets in 12 of 18 fiscal years, including the six most recent, so it warns of the risk that the new projections may also not be met. The financial pressure is also reflected in interest payments. For 2027, the financial cost of the debt is estimated at 1.66 trillion pesos, resources that limit the government's ability to finance other needs. México Evalúa calculates that 96 out of every 100 pesos of the public revenues planned for next year would already be committed to pensions, debt, payroll, transfers, and other mandatory spending. Of the 9.16 trillion pesos in projected revenues, only 325.4 billion would remain available, equivalent to four pesos out of every 100 and 2,403 pesos per inhabitant. It warns that the available margin shrank 78% in real terms since 2018, when it stood at 1.48 trillion pesos, because the government's commitments grew faster than its revenues. Moreover, spending on pensions and debt interest would represent 10.3% of GDP in 2027, above the 9.4% allocated jointly to education, health, the rule of law, and physical infrastructure. México Evalúa warns that if revenue targets are not met or support for Pemex increases, the government would have to resort to more debt or apply cuts to other budget items, including health, education, and security services. You may be interested in: Two narcolaboratories linked to "Tío Lako," regional head of the CJNG, dismantled in Jalisco; estimated impact of 17 million pesos monthly. Sheinbaum calls the multimillion-dollar payouts to former INE councilors "immoral"; notes payments of up to 13 million pesos. 5,000 homicides go missing; underreporting reaches 17%. Join our channel! EL UNIVERSAL is now on WhatsApp! From your mobile device, find out the day's most relevant news, opinion pieces, entertainment, trends, and more.