Ukraine, Zelensky: 'The US is offering us NATO in exchange for the Donbas'

It's the plot twist that could change the whole picture. The United States — Volodymyr Zelensky revealed upon returning to Kyiv after the diplomatic tour de force of recent days — have for the first time raised the possibility that Ukraine could join NATO in exchange for ceding the entire Donbas to Russia. It would be a bitter pill to swallow. Since 2014, Moscow has been trying to conquer the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts without succeeding — a conflict that has cost tens of thousands of lives on both sides. Would the Ukrainians at this point agree to cede further territory through diplomacy? Zelensky is cautious: a "referendum" would be needed. The picture is extremely complicated; we are light years away from a family game of Christmas Risk. Meanwhile, the technical aspects. From when would Kyiv's NATO accession trigger, with the protection offered by Article 5? And are the US really speaking on behalf of everyone? Because to join the Alliance, unanimity is required. Sweden knows something about that: despite having a crystal-clear pedigree both in terms of democratic values and military capabilities, it had to wait in the antechamber for two years from its application due to Turkey's veto, over bilateral issues. At the NATO summit in Vilnius, when the phrase "irreversible path to membership" was coined, it was not only the US that reined in Zelensky's hot-headedness but also Germany (and behind Berlin other capitals were hiding too). That's why words are not enough, and the Ukrainian president knows it. "I have repeatedly stated that Ukraine will not surrender and will not cede its territories," Zelensky said. "We are discussing with our partners a comprehensive security package they can offer us during negotiations: specific security guarantees from NATO and the EU, a strong Ukrainian army, with an adequate number of soldiers, armaments, financial support for a certain period of time, and the Prosperity Plan, namely a recovery roadmap backed by funds with clear sources. If the American side confirms this to us together with the other NATO colleagues, then I will ask our society's opinion: do we accept it or not? I do not have the right to do so at my discretion," he specified, highlighting that "details not currently available" are still needed. Moreover, the Russia wildcard is still missing from the equation. The Kremlin has always had, more or less openly, the goal of excluding Ukraine from NATO, as well as an ideal weakening of the Alliance: it is hard to imagine it accepting. A strong clue comes from the negotiation document the Russians shared with the Americans in Abu Dhabi, in which they recalled part of the demands made in the 2021 draft treaties. Namely, first and foremost, the withdrawal of NATO troops from positions occupied in 1997, before the alliance expanded. Russian officials — according to the New York Times, which reviewed the material — made clear they consider the Cold War and the Warsaw Pact a "model" of security architecture for Europe, since the separate US and Soviet spheres of influence, as well as the agreements deriving from them, actually "reduced" the risk of conflict. Of course, evoking the Warsaw Pact in 2026 seems a lunatic position, one that will certainly make the hair stand on end across the entire eastern European flank, Poland and the Baltics first and foremost. Now that Europe has finally reached agreement on its negotiating team, with the newly created Dublin format (E5+EU), it will certainly be possible to go into more detail (in Berlin next week there will be a summit of the Coalition of the Willing, ahead of the big Putin-Trump-Xi trilateral in China). In Brussels this morning, the most debated topic in diplomatic salons is the snub dealt to EU High Representative Kaja Kallas in the Irish capital, effectively sidelined from the negotiating team. The former Estonian prime minister nevertheless remains the terminal of a chain of European countries determined not to give in to the Kremlin's "crazy" demands, convinced that any form of appeasement will generate new Russian attacks in the future. The Team Europe, in its synthesis, will have to take this into account, Kallas or not. BGN Reproduction reserved © Copyright ANSA