Salvadoran sugar production would fall 15% and return to levels from a decade ago, according to the sugarcane industry association.

The country's main sugarcane growers' association estimates that the next harvest will be around 14.41 million quintales, compared to 16.95 million in the previous cycle, although it warns that the final result will be known at the end of the harvest (Brazil). EFE/Marcelo Sayão El Salvador's sugar production would fall to levels not seen in a decade, according to the first calculations for the 2026-2027 harvest. The projection comes from the Sugar Cane Producers Association of El Salvador (Procaña) and was published by Diario El Mundo. The association anticipates a 15% drop in the volume of cane to be cut, with the harvest starting on November 16. Sugar production in El Salvador would fall 15% in the 2026-2027 harvest due to the water stress left by El Niño, an unprecedented attack by the mealybug pest, and an increase of up to 25% in agricultural inputs, according to Procaña. The definitive figure will only be known when the harvest closes. The 2025-2026 harvest ended with 7.16 million tons, equivalent to 16.95 million quintales, according to the Salvadoran Sugar Agroindustry Council (Consaa). With the projected decline, the new cycle would be around 6.09 million tons and 14.41 million quintales. El Salvador's sugar production would fall to levels not seen in a decade, according to the first calculations for the 2026-2027 harvest. EFE/Saul Martínez/Archivo If confirmed, production would return to a floor similar to that of the 2015-2016 cycle, when the harvest reached 14.1 million quintales. "It has been a very difficult year because of El Niño," Óscar Orellana, president of Procaña, told Diario El Mundo. The industry leader warned that the real magnitude of the impact will only be known when the harvest ends. Orellana told the newspaper: "Only when we have finished the harvest will we have the real figures, because it really is very difficult to go into a cane field; these are all projections, because what you do is sampling." The producer explained that sugarcane is a "noble" plant capable of withstanding up to 40 days without rainfall. This year, however, the drought accumulated 89 dry days, concentrated mainly in the eastern part of the country. That lack of water coincided with the stages of the crop that require the most moisture to grow. "The cane was affected by water stress; it will be affected in production and it will be affected in sugar yield," Orellana told the newspaper. Only 10% of the country's sugarcane crop has irrigation systems; the rest depends entirely on the weather. The rains of recent weeks, which left excessive moisture in the fields, forced a staggered start to the harvest. Some mills will begin on November 16, others will wait until November 23, and one will postpone it until December 1. Six mills operate in the country: Izalco, El Ángel, Chaparrastique, La Cabaña, Injboa and La Magdalena. The rains of recent weeks, which left excessive moisture in the fields, forced a staggered start to the harvest. Some mills will begin on November 16, others will wait until November 23, and one will postpone it until December 1. (Illustrative image Infobae) To the water stress was added a second blow. According to Procaña, the cost of agricultural inputs rose by up to 25%, driven by the war in the Middle East, which kept oil above USD 70 and with peaks of up to USD 100 since the conflict broke out in February. "In addition, we had a severe attack from a pest that had never attacked us before," Orellana told Diario El Mundo. That pest is the mealybug, an insect that migrated from Mexico and that, according to reports from the association, affected at least 35,000 manzanas of crops. Producers had to apply more treatments just when agrochemical prices were rising. Only 10% of the country's sugarcane crop has irrigation systems; the rest depends entirely on the weather. The first symptom of the infestation is yellowing of the plant, a sign that was initially confused with the lack of rain. "At first many people thought it was due to the lack of rain, that it was water stress, so no attention was paid to it, and then suddenly it started to rain and it didn't change, the pest began to be seen," the industry leader told the newspaper. The 2026-2027 harvest will begin with a base price of USD 0.1401 per pound, above the USD 0.1285 with which the previous cycle began. The adjustment does not compensate for the projected drop in volume. The 2026-2027 harvest will begin with a base price of USD 0.1401 per pound, above the USD 0.1285 with which the previous cycle began. The adjustment does not compensate for the projected drop in volume. (Illustrative image Infobae) Sugar is, in any case, the crop that has grown the most within Salvadoran agriculture over the past two decades. While basic grains declined, sugarcane production increased by 8.4% and the planted area expanded by 12.7%, according to the Agricultural Census cited by Diario El Mundo. The Central Reserve Bank recorded exports of 9.14 million quintales between January and September, with revenues of USD 159.45 million: a 29.3% increase in volume and 1.4% in value. Sugar is the country's fourth-largest export product, behind T-shirts, sweaters, and plastic articles for transport. The impact of El Niño on sugarcane is not limited to Central America. The Brazilian company Raízen projected that its crushing for the 2026-2027 season will fall to a range of between 55 and 57 million tons, well below what was forecast, as reported by El Fondo. CONSAA's purpose is to organize the relations among the various actors involved in the production and industrialization of sugarcane. (Courtesy) The company's executive director, Nelson Gomes, explained to analysts that the rains associated with the phenomenon will leave leftover cane for the 2027-2028 cycle, when they expect to process between 60 and 63 million tons. In the first half of the current season, the company's 23 plants crushed 44.3 million tons, an 11.5% year-on-year decline, and its sugar production fell 22.7% through September. The spread of the mealybug is also not a problem exclusive to El Salvador's sugarcane sector. According to a report by Expreso, the pest is among the factors already pressuring food prices in the region, at a time when Central American producers are simultaneously facing rising input costs and the climate impact on their crops.