Experts in electoral mathematics already predict that if the U.S. voted in two years, as it did in last week's elections, Democrats would have a practically clear path to the White House.
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Image source, Getty Images Caption, Florida Senator Ron DeSantis warned that the Republican defeat in Texas will have long-term repercussions. Author, BBC News Mundo Correspondent in Los Angeles Publication Date 25 minutes Reading Time: 12 min It was not just a defeat, but rather an "extinction." This is how Florida Governor, Republican Ron DeSantis, defined what happened in the November 3 midterm elections in Texas, the place that best exemplifies the political shift in the United States in favor of Democrats. The second-largest state in the United States, one of the quintessential Republican strongholds, was swallowed by the "blue wave" that led Democrats to gain control of both chambers of Congress and secure other key victories. "Throughout my life, Texas has been the crown jewel of Republican politics," said DeSantis, and he was not referring only to the symbolic. "If the Republican Party does not have Texas as an anchor, it will not be viable nationally in the future," he warned, keeping his eye on the 2028 presidential elections. Like him, experts in electoral math predict that if the U.S. voted in two years like it did in last week's elections, Democrats would have a practically clear path to the White House. Texas is the second state with the most electoral votes (40 of the 270 needed to be president), only behind California, an impregnable Democratic bastion just as Texas is a Republican stronghold: the last Democratic candidate to win in the border state during a presidential election was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Although many things can happen between now and 2028 that modify voting intentions, and political scientists remind us that predictions based on the midterms do not necessarily come true in the presidential elections, Democrats have more hope than ever that Texas will stop being red and start turning blue on the political map. Read More and continue reading More Read Final of More Read Image source, Mikala Compton/The Austin American-Statesman via Getty Images The dimension of the "blue earthquake" The epicenter of the so-called "blue earthquake" was indeed registered in the Lone Star State, where no Democrat had secured a state office in over 30 years. Gina Hinojosa, 52, of Mexican descent, was elected governor of the state, the first Latina to achieve it. She surprised everyone by unseating Republican Greg Abbott, a three-term elected official and a loyal ally of President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, 37-year-old state legislator James Talarico, a former teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, defeated Ken Paxton, a state attorney general protected by the current governor and plagued by scandals, winning a seat in the U.S. Senate for Texas. Both won comfortably in the urban centers considered most progressive in this generally conservative state, such as Austin, Houston, and Dallas. Image source, Reuters Caption, James Talarico won in both more progressive metropolitan areas and in the border counties with a majority of Latinos. Its increasingly extensive metropolitan areas have been becoming politically more diverse in recent years, attracting workers in the technology, research, or finance sectors, new residents with university degrees, many of whom come from "blue" states such as California, Illinois, New York, or Washington. Meanwhile, the rural, larger, and traditionally Republican regions—which remained red, the color of the Republican Party, in the last elections—have been emptying out and thus contributing fewer votes. But where Hinojosa and Talarico achieved the largest margins was in the border counties with Mexico, where the percentage of the population identifying as Latino exceeds 80% and had favored Trump in the 2024 elections. Voters in this southern territory were already dissatisfied with the rising cost of living and the federal government's aggressive immigration policies, which, according to analysts, ultimately punished the Republican Party at the polls. Thus, two electoral districts in the Rio Grande Valley, bordering Tamaulipas, elected Democrats to the House of Representatives, including the well-known Tejano singer Bobby Pulido, now a rising political star. The Texas Attorney General's office also fell into Democratic hands. Image source, EPA Caption, Bobby Pulido, rising Democratic star. Aside from specific factors, such as the suitability of the candidates, "the victories are a testament to the new demographic reality of this state," Álvaro J. Corral, a political scientist and professor at the University of Texas in the Rio Grande Valley, assured BBC Mundo. "The transformation of Texas into a politically competitive state, a theory long contemplated by Democratic analysts and strategists, seems to have materialized in the elections," says John Fortier, a researcher at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) specializing in U.S. elections, Congress, and the Electoral College. He adds more cautiously, "Although it remains to be seen if it will remain so, if it is a lasting trend." The new great swing state? Before explaining Texas's relevance for the 2028 elections, one must first understand how the U.S. chooses a president. The person in the White House is not elected directly by voters, but by a body called the Electoral College. Each of the 50 states has a number of electors in the Electoral College equivalent to the sum of its representation in Congress (two senators per state and a number of members of the House of Representatives based on population, between 1 and 52). With the exceptions of Maine and Nebraska, the candidate who wins a state takes all its electoral votes—all the votes it contributes to the Electoral College—regardless of whether they win by a single vote or by a million. The Electoral College has a total of 538 votes. And to proclaim oneself the winner of the election and thus president, a candidate needs to achieve 270 or more. Most states always vote for the same party in all elections. This is the case with California, which contributes the most electors to the Electoral College (54), but which has voted for Democratic candidates in all presidential elections since 1992. That is why White House aspirants concentrate their campaign efforts on specific "swing states," also called hinge states, that could lean toward one side or the other, instead of trying to win votes across the country. Image source, Jordan Vonderhaar/Bloomberg via Getty Images Until last week's midterm elections, the Lone Star State did not seem to be one of them. In presidential elections, it has voted for the Republican candidate uninterrupted since 1980. "But if Texas consolidates as a competitive or favorable state for Democrats, Republicans would have much more difficulty reaching a majority in the Electoral College" in 2028, points out Fortier. "With its 40 electoral votes, it would also become one of the main battlegrounds of the presidential elections," he explains. "And considering how much campaigns usually invest in swing states, it is hard to imagine how much money would be poured there this time," he exclaims. Analysts and strategists also point out that not only would Texas cease to be a safe value for Republicans, but the electoral map of red and blue states we knew would actually be cracking. This is because other states were also the scene of more competitive elections than many had anticipated, such as the victory of Democrat Annie Andrews over Republican Senator Darline Graham in South Carolina. Meanwhile, Democrat and mega-church pastor Adam Hamilton defeated Republican Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas. And, like in South Carolina, Democrats broke the Republican supermajority, which has dominated the state legislature for 16 years. Likewise, Democrat Scott Colm won the U.S. Senate race in Mississippi, achieving a surprising victory for the party in a deeply conservative state that has elected Republicans for decades. Image source, USA Today Network via REUTERSPie caption, Democrat Scott Colm won the U.S. Senate race in Mississippi, a deeply conservative state. What seemed written in stone is no longer the case. There are simply more swing states," summarized Pennsylvania Democratic Congressman Brendan Boyle, who is the next president of the House Budget Committee. "For a quarter of a century, we had practically the same map, but that is history." Called to caution Despite how large the blue wave was and how tempting it is to start making calculations, analysts call for caution. They emphasize what differs between a presidential election and a legislative one, beyond what is being chosen. They cite higher participation in those that define the new occupant of the White House, even though the turnout in last week's polls broke records in that regard. According to data handled by initiatives such as The Midterm Project, it would have been the second midterm election with the highest voter turnout since 1914. They also mention demographic gaps and differences, as well as voting patterns. "It is important to stress that midterm elections do not always predict what will happen in the next presidential elections, and there are examples in both directions," Fortier warns along those lines. Image source, Rasit Aydogan/Anadolu via Getty Images Caption, Gavin Newsom, Governor of California, is one of the possible Democratic presidential candidates. Whatever happens in 2028, what Democrats do once they assume their positions in January and take control of Congress will have a lot to do with it. If they manage to pass measures to alleviate the cost of living crisis, expand access to healthcare, and address other issues that worry voters, such as corruption, they may manage to maintain momentum, analysts point out. In turn, if the federal government manages to change the public perception of the state of the economy or improves the image of President Trump—currently at an all-time low, according to polls—it is foreseeable that it will play a fundamental role. And a relevant factor will be who competes to sit in the Oval Office and the pull of their figure. "The way Democrats and Republicans use the next two years to limit Trump's unpopular foreign policy and define a clear alternative will determine both their success in conquering the White House and their ability to shape the global landscape that their next occupant will inherit," writes Laurel Rapp, director of the Program for the United States and North America at the Chatham House think tank. Moving pieces As it may be, midterm elections usually mark the starting gun for the next presidential race. White House aspirants usually create exploratory committees shortly after the elections, usually announce their candidacies at the beginning of the new year, and start raising funds in the middle of the year. "What we are going to see this year is that that process is going to accelerate," Fortier tells BBC Mundo. First of all, several Republican heavyweights rushed to reaffirm their internal leadership with analyses and recipes to respond to the hard setback suffered. Vice President JD Vance, long considered a possible political heir to Trump, quickly attributed the broad defeats to the president's war in Iran. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas criticized his party for ignoring the economic difficulties faced by many voters. And Governor Ron DeSantis, who has now made Florida the great Republican bastion, warned that the consequences of the midterms will extend beyond 2028 with the striking description that what happened resembles an "extinction." Image source, Reuters Caption, "An event of the level of an extinction," described the Republican defeat in Texas by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (in the image, on the left, next to President Donald Trump). On the Democratic side, potential presidential candidates also began to move pieces. According to the American media outlet Politico, despite no public announcement, two days after the elections, allies of Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna launched a fundraising committee for a possible candidacy. And Illinois Governor JB Pritzker published a roadmap with proposals for the new Congress. In parallel, party leaders in Washington began to outline their plans for the majorities gained in the House of Representatives and the Senate. "While we think about 2028 and beyond, we must start consolidating our position in the states we have won and reinforcing the party's infrastructure in those territories," said the leader of the current Democratic minority in the Senate, Chuck Schumer. "And continue expanding the map to new states." Image source, Reuters Caption, Democratic leaders in Washington have already begun to outline their plans for the majorities gained in the House of Representatives and the Senate. In that, Democratic officials and strategists will focus in the two-day conference that began this Thursday in Denver (Colorado), titled What's Next. The program includes some of the winners of last week's elections, such as the senators elected from Texas and Iowa, James Talarico and Josh Turek, respectively. Potential presidential aspirants also participate, such as former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. There is no doubt that all of them will already be immersed in electoral math, discussing formulas to achieve victory: and in them, decades later, Texas is included. Download the new BBC World Service app. Choose BBC News Mundo and receive news, documentaries, and analysis alerts, all in one place. Important: the new application is not available in the UK or the United States. You can also follow us on YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, X, and on our WhatsApp channel. And don't forget to subscribe here to our newsletter to receive a special selection of our best content every Friday.