Ana Botín's column: The world is turning inward. Companies look abroad

If we were to judge solely by the political debate, we might think that the era of global trade is coming to an end: tariffs keep dominating headlines, and governments are prioritizing economic security and encouraging companies to bring production closer to their home markets. Geopolitical tensions are transforming relationships we took for granted until recently. Resilience and self-sufficiency are increasingly present concepts today. However, something different is happening inside companies. At Santander, we have surveyed more than 6,000 companies across Europe and the Americas for our latest Trade Barometer, asking them whether international business has gained or lost importance in their growth plans. 55% responded that it has gained importance. Only 4% said it has lost weight. That is a significant figure: while some external forces push toward greater retrenchment, companies continue to look beyond their borders. That does not mean they ignore the risks. Tariffs, trade restrictions, geopolitical tensions, and weak global growth are the main threats they face. And they are already changing the way they operate, especially in supply chains: diversifying suppliers, bringing part of their production closer to home, and reducing their dependence on certain countries. It would be easy to interpret all this simply as deglobalization. But the data shows a more complex reality. The World Trade Organization speaks of a "reconfiguration" of global value chains. Despite the disruptions of recent years, these still account for more than 46% of world trade, near their recent peaks. Companies are not abandoning international trade. They are changing how they approach it. For decades, the dominant logic of international business was efficiency. Companies built their supply chains wherever they could produce at the lowest cost. Today they seek to combine that efficiency with another imperative: resilience. They scrutinize more carefully where they source from, how much they depend on certain markets, and how quickly they can adapt when a disruption occurs. But it is not simply a matter of sacrificing efficiency in favor of security. Among survey participants who are transforming or diversifying their supply chains, 59% want to gain efficiency or lower costs. Reducing exposure to geopolitical risk and the vulnerabilities associated with long-distance transport is also important to them. Therefore, it is not a simple choice between efficiency and resilience. Companies operating in the international market want to achieve both: diversifying suppliers, shortening some supply chains, and having more alternatives in how they operate internationally. And the reason is growth. Nearly four out of five surveyed companies expect to grow over the next three years. Those already operating internationally show greater confidence than those focused exclusively on their local markets. And 59% of companies that currently do not operate internationally are considering expanding into other markets over the next three years. Technology can accelerate this shift. Artificial intelligence is the top investment priority for respondents. Among companies already operating internationally or aspiring to do so, 64% believe AI will allow them to reach more markets, and 60% believe it will help them expand faster. This is especially relevant for smaller groups. International expansion entails understanding regulations, finding customers, managing customs processes, and identifying trusted partners. AI cannot eliminate those barriers, but it can reduce some of the information disadvantages faced by smaller companies. There is also a reflection for public policymakers. Governments have legitimate reasons to strengthen economic security, but resilience and openness are not necessarily opposing concepts. Diversifying customers and suppliers across different markets can, in itself, be a source of resilience. What companies need is predictability. Our study identifies bureaucracy, difficulty finding trusted partners, and transportation costs as the main obstacles they encounter when operating internationally. Free trade agreements also influence the markets many companies are willing to enter. The debate on trade has largely focused on what the world is leaving behind: dependence, distant supply chains, and an era in which efficiency often prevailed over resilience. Companies, however, ask a more practical question: where will the next source of growth come from? Their answer points to a future of trade that will be more complex, more diversified, and at times more regional. But it will remain international. In an increasingly fragmented world, companies continue to believe that growth opportunities still lie beyond their borders. *The author of the column is Chair of Banco SantanderNEWSLETTEROpinionSaturday, AMTense ideas, opposing views, and clear analysis: elements for unraveling the issues that divide opinions and will shape the agenda. By signing up you are accepting the Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policies of La Tercera.