El Niño could increase risks to agricultural production and food security in El Salvador

The El Niño phenomenon compromises agricultural production and food security in rural households in El Salvador. (Archive photo, courtesy of FAO) For rural households that depend on dryland crops, the evolution of rainfall during the current El Niño episode in El Salvador could impact agricultural production and food security conditions, according to the Institute of Economic Research (INVE). The bulletin notes that the effects do not depend solely on the intensity of the climatic phenomenon. Productive conditions, access to irrigation systems, household income, prices, and institutional response capacity also play a role. INVE's analysis indicates that El Niño can affect food security in three ways: lower food production, pressure on prices, and reduced income for producing households. The consequences can affect availability, economic access, diet quality, and supply stability. During 2026, drought and irregular rainfall primarily affected corn and bean crops in the eastern region. The institute considers these conditions represent a greater risk for small producers and for families who combine self-consumption with the sale of their harvests. The document compares El Niño periods identified through the Oceanic Niño Index, known as RONI, with the evolution of Salvadoran economic activity. According to the study, the aggregate gross domestic product has maintained more moderate variations than agricultural activity. The agricultural sector shows wider fluctuations due to its dependence on rain and temperature. INVE clarifies that this relationship must be interpreted as a descriptive trend. The number of analyzed episodes is limited, and the sector's variations may also respond to economic, productive, and external factors. The drought caused the loss of 2,394,000 quintals of corn in the eastern region of El Salvador. (EFE/ Rodrigo Sura) The 2014-2016 event was the most intense in the series examined between 2000 and 2026. RONI reached +2.3 °C at the end of 2015, while agricultural activity contracted by 5.5% that year and grew by 8.4% in 2016. The bulletin also mentions the 2018-2019 episode. Agricultural activity fell by 2.7% in 2018 and registered a recovery of 1.0% the following year. The 2020 situation requires a different reading, according to the report. That year's agricultural contraction coincided with La Niña and the COVID-19 pandemic, so it cannot be attributed to El Niño. During the first half of 2026, the Economic Activity Volume Index grew by 4.7% year-on-year on average. The agricultural component, however, decreased by 0.7% and remained in negative figures in July and August. The analysis records losses of 2,394,000 quintals of corn and 78,000 quintals of beans, concentrated in the eastern region. It also warns about the situation of the Postrera planting, which represents 75% of national bean production. Corn, bean, and sorghum crops depend heavily on rainfall. Limited irrigation coverage leaves a large part of agricultural production exposed to periods of drought or uneven rainfall. The bulletin notes that only 3% of the country's crops have irrigation systems. The rest of the productive areas depend mainly on the rainy season. Only 3% of cultivated areas in El Salvador have irrigation systems in the face of lack of precipitation. (Photo courtesy of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock) Before the intensification of the drought, the Salvadoran Chamber of Small and Medium Agricultural Producers estimated that national production of corn and beans would not be enough to fully cover the consumption forecast for 2026. Subsequent losses could widen that gap. INVE explains that when local supply decreases, imports help sustain the physical availability of food. This mechanism can contain part of the impact on supply. At the same time, it increases the country's exposure to regional and international prices, transportation costs, and external market conditions. The loss of a harvest can affect producing households in two dimensions. It reduces food intended for family consumption and limits the monetary income obtained from selling agricultural products. INVE maintains that this situation can reduce purchasing power even when food remains available in the markets. The effect is particularly relevant among households with irregular incomes and few reserves. The urban Basic Food Basket was $264.73 in August, 5.6% above its value one year prior. The rural basket reached $189.63 and remained virtually unchanged. The year-on-year inflation of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose from 0.9% in January to 4.4% in September. The report indicates that price evolution was not the same for all products. The agricultural component of the Salvadoran economy registered a contraction of 0.7% in the first half of 2026. (Photo courtesy of Óscar Domínguez) Higher import volumes contributed to moderating the wholesale price of white corn. In September, that value remained close to 18% below the level recorded a year earlier. The INVE bulletin suggests that imports can cushion lower local production, although they do not eliminate pressure on family budgets. The costs of other foods and the decrease in income remain variables that affect access. The document references analyses from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) regarding the situation of rural households in the Eastern Dry Corridor. For the departments of Usulután, Morazán, and La Unión, the entity had projected conditions of Severe food insecurity, corresponding to Phase 2 of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. The assessment also included households in Crisis, classified in Phase 3. Identified factors include the early depletion of reserves, accumulated debt, premature dependence on markets, and limited income opportunities. INVE considers that El Niño develops over already existing difficulties. Between 2023 and 2025, 41.7% of the Salvadoran population suffered from moderate or severe food insecurity, according to the data included in the bulletin. In this context, food stability does not depend solely on the outcome of a harvest. It also requires continuity in income, market access, water availability, and mechanisms that allow households to respond to new losses. Imports of basic grains sustain local supply in the face of falling national production. (Photo: Manos que Alimentan El Salvador) The Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated an 83% probability that El Niño would reach a historic magnitude between October and December 2026, with a RONI equal to or greater than +2.5 °C. The indicator's value for the August-October quarter was +2.0 °C. The analysis recalls that greater oceanic intensity does not necessarily imply equivalent effects in all Salvadoran regions. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization predicted that the production of corn in the first cycle would fall below average. The report linked this outlook to rainfall deficits, high temperatures, and a prolonged dry spell. The Legislative Assembly declared a State of Emergency for six months due to the meteorological and agricultural drought associated with El Niño. The measure mentioned risks to water, agricultural production, and food security. The Institute of Economic Research pointed out that the final extent of the effects will depend on the recovery of rainfall, the performance of the next agricultural cycles, imports, prices, and support actions directed at small producers and rural households.