India Ups Its Ukraine War Diplomacy

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief. The highlights this week: India quietly steps up mediation efforts in the Ukraine war, ousted Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina requests a new passport as she signals a return home, and the United States nominates an ambassador to Pakistan after a nearly two-year vacancy. India’s Quiet Mediation on Ukraine As Russian, Ukrainian, and U. S. officials met in Abu Dhabi for three-way talks this week, India has quietly stepped up its own mediation efforts in the Ukraine war. On Tuesday, Randhir Jaiswal, a spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, said New Delhi was talking with Kyiv and Moscow “at the highest level.” His comments came a day after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. The Indian interventions reportedly focus on easing the economic consequences of the war, pushing for safer commercial shipping in the Black Sea and addressing concerns about energy and grain exports. New Delhi is also involved in conversations about how to end the conflict. Last month, an Indian truce proposal was well received by both Kyiv and Moscow, the Hindustan Times reports. India is a logical Russia-Ukraine mediator. It has a deep, long-standing partnership with Moscow and friendly relations with Kyiv. It also has solid ties with other key third-party actors, such as the European Union and the Arab states; its relations with Washington—despite tensions during in President Donald Trump’s second term—remain workable. Further, India has a strong interest in the war coming to an end. A longer conflict could wear down Russia’s capacity to export oil and weapons to India. It could also increase Moscow’s dependence on Beijing, a strategic competitor of New Delhi. The conflict also creates headaches for Indian foreign policy, complicating efforts to balance ties with Russia and the West. But India’s special relationship with Russia is a potential asset for peace, giving New Delhi the diplomatic space to make tough demands of Moscow. Modi has repeatedly called for an end to the war—a message he delivered while sitting next to Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022. Few non-Western leaders have pushed for peace more than Modi and certainly not as publicly. There were reasons to believe that India would hold back from mediating in the Ukraine war. The country rejects the role of intermediaries in its own conflicts, including its dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir. But Modi has said he is prepared to help facilitate an end to the conflict, with pledges to Zelensky in Kyiv and during a visit to Warsaw, Poland, in 2024. There were also reasons to believe that India wouldn’t want to insert itself into complicated diplomatic efforts involving the United States and the EU and that it would only mediate if asked by the two belligerents. However, recent days suggest that Russia and Ukraine are both on board with such a role for India. Zelensky has sought Indian assistance in ending the war, according to Ukrainian media. And Russian state media have reported that Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reacted to New Delhi’s proposed truce by saying, “We are grateful to our Indian friends for such readiness and the ideas that are being offered.” Putin has said Modi has “very good ideas” for ending the war. To be sure, India will struggle to succeed, with fighting in Ukraine intensifying in recent days. And it likely won’t want to upstage the United States, which clearly wants to be the prime mediator—even though its tense relations with Russia make that difficult. But this may present an opportunity for India. With Trump perhaps wanting to be remembered as a peacemaker, the United States will likely ramp up its efforts. New Delhi—arguably the best-positioned third party—could coordinate its work with Washington, pursuing specific objectives tied to shipping and export concerns as the Trump administration focuses on broader goals. Such collaborations could help advance peace efforts—and deliver a boost to U. S.-India ties in the process. What We’re Following Ousted Hasina requests new passport. Former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has been living in India since she was ousted amid mass protests in 2024, has requested a new passport from the Bangladesh High Commission in London, via her lawyers. The move is the latest indication that Hasina wants to return to Bangladesh this year. During Hasina’s final days in power, security forces cracked down hard on protesters. As many as 1,400 people were killed. Hasina fled to India and last year was sentenced to death in absentia for crimes against humanity. In July, Hasina announced plans to return home and present herself in court. The government promptly rejected her request. Bangladeshi State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humaiun Kobir said the country would not give a “passport to a terrorist,” citing Bangladesh’s extradition treaty with India and demanding that Hasina be handed over. Hasina’s passport request comes amid skepticism that she will follow through. Her arrest is almost guaranteed; this week, the prosecutor who secured Hasina’s death sentence warned that if she returned, she would face execution. Hasina’s vow to return might be an attempt to energize her struggling party. But without a passport, she might not be able to enter the country. U. S. nominates ambassador to Pakistan. The Trump administration has nominated Natalie Baker, the U. S. chargé d’affaires in Islamabad, to be the next U. S. ambassador to Pakistan. She would succeed Donald Blome, who left the job in January 2025. Baker has been at the embassy since August 2024, when she arrived as deputy chief of mission. The nomination will go down well in Islamabad, where Baker is popular. She has robustly pursued what the Trump administration describes as “commercial diplomacy.” For example, Baker has driven efforts to encourage U. S. businesses to invest in Pakistan’s critical minerals. (Islamabad hosts a major forum on critical minerals this week.) Baker has also attracted positive attention for her public diplomacy, with many appearances at cultural events around the country. Sonia Gandhi’s memoir makes waves. Sonia Gandhi, the Italian-born former leader of the opposition Indian National Congress party, released a much-anticipated memoir this week. She is one of India’s biggest names; the Gandhi family dominated politics for decades until Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) took office in 2014. Belonging: A Journey of Love provides a rare window into Gandhi’s life. Her personal history is rich and tragic. Born in 1946, she had a modest upbringing in Italy, meeting her husband, Rajiv Gandhi, in Cambridge, England. She ended up atop the Gandhi family dynasty after the assassinations of her mother-in-law, Indira Gandhi, and Rajiv Gandhi in 1984 and 1991, respectively. Though Gandhi insists that the memoir is personal, not political, the BJP has criticized it. Party spokesperson C. R. Kesavan said it amounts to a “whitewashing” of the Congress party’s actions, including controversial moments under the premiership of Indira Gandhi: the 1975-77 state of Emergency and the deadly siege of a revered Sikh temple that prompted her assassination. The book also comes at a difficult moment for the BJP, which is grappling with large protests mounted by government critics, including the Congress party. FP’s Most Read This Week Why Kushner and Witkoff Keep Failing by Stephen M. Walt The Beginning of the End of Trumpism by Ravi Agrawal Where Democrats Can Thwart Trump’s Foreign Policy by John Haltiwanger Under the Radar Pakistanis, along with many people in the Muslim world, celebrated the victory of Michigan Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed in last week’s U. S. midterm elections. El-Sayed will be the first Muslim U. S. senator. But in Pakistan, those celebrations might be dampened by comments that he made on ABC News soon after the election. El-Sayed slammed Pakistan, arguing that the United States shouldn’t provide assistance to countries that use it to violate international law. He identified Pakistan as one of those countries, along with Egypt, Israel, and Jordan. Progressive Democrats are often tough on other countries (along with their own) when it comes to human rights and democracy, so El-Sayed’s critique of Pakistan—which has seen high levels of repression in recent months—is unsurprising. More significantly, his comments might preview the challenges that a Democratic Congress could pose to Pakistani authorities. Though the U. S.-Pakistan relationship is unlikely to be affected while Trump is still in power, Islamabad may need to deal with some reputational risks. The new Congress may convene hearings on Pakistan’s internal situation and might be more receptive to Pakistani American advocacy critical of the government in Islamabad. Pakistani Americans have pressed U. S. legislators to condemn Pakistan’s human rights situation and to call for the release of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan.