Panama Canal warns that between February and May 2027 it will face the greatest pressure on its water reserves

Lake Gatún reached 87.10 feet on November 6, just 0.40 feet below its maximum operating reference level, following the rains recorded during October. (Illustrative image Infobae)The administrator of the Panama Canal, Ilya Espino de Marotta, warned that one of the periods of greatest pressure on the water reserves of the interoceanic waterway would be concentrated between March and May 2027, given the prospects of a dry season conditioned by the El Niño phenomenon. The Canal authority has already incorporated water risks into its financial and operational planning, with the aim of maintaining ship transits and the supply of drinking water. During the Houston International Maritime Conference, held in Texas, Espino de Marotta explained that the critical period could begin as early as February and extend through May, when rainfall decreases and dependence on water stored in the lakes increases. The Canal's budget for fiscal year 2027 contemplates a projection of 10,750 transits of deep-draft vessels, considering the expected conditions. The administrator of the Panama Canal, Ilya Espino de Marotta, warned during a maritime conference in Houston about the pressure that the water reserves will face between February and May 2027. Courtesy of ACPClimate projections also maintain the possibility that the dry season could arrive early, in December 2026, instead of beginning in January, as it usually does in much of the country. The development of El Niño could favor a reduction in rainfall and a longer dry season, although the intensity of the phenomenon and its effects on the watershed are still subject to uncertainty. The risk is especially significant because the Gatún and Alhajuela reservoirs supply the Canal's operations and contribute to the drinking water supply of more than half of Panama's population. A sustained decrease in water inflows during the first months of 2027 could reduce the reserves available for transits, even after the recovery recorded during October. The Panama Canal maintains water-saving measures to protect its operations in light of forecasts of an early dry season and the possible effects of the El Niño phenomenon. REUTERS/Enea LebrunLast month's rains allowed Lake Gatún to reach 87.10 feet on November 6, just 0.40 feet below its maximum operating reference level of 87.50 feet. On that same date, Alhajuela stood at 248.35 feet, close to its reference level of 250 feet, while both reservoirs showed considerable recovery compared to September. The improvement was related to the 351.6 millimeters of rain recorded in October, an amount 17.2% above the historical average for the watershed. However, between May and September, rainfall was 25% below average, according to the Canal administration, so the recent recovery does not eliminate the risks of scarcity during 2027. Espino de Marotta highlighted that the Canal is currently operating under near-normal conditions, with 33 daily transit slots and a maximum draft of 49 feet for neopanamax vessels, according to the figures presented in Houston. The Panama Canal Authority projects to begin the physical construction of the Río Indio reservoir in 2028, considered a long-term solution to guarantee water for the population and maritime transport. Taken from the ACPThe conservation measures applied at the locks save approximately 1.2 billion liters of water every day, reducing pressure on the lakes."Compared to 2024, we have significantly improved our operational measures to save water. This has allowed us to considerably reduce the impact on maritime transport," said the administrator, recalling the restrictions the waterway faced during the water crisis. The strategy seeks to prevent a new decline in rainfall from causing effects similar to those previously recorded. As a structural solution, the ACP maintains the Río Indio reservoir project, whose physical construction would begin in 2028, with entry into operation planned for 2032. The infrastructure would allow sustaining 36 daily transits with a draft of 50 feet, in addition to strengthening the drinking water supply for the population. The Panama Canal projects 10,750 deep-draft vessel transits during fiscal year 2027, in a scenario marked by water risks associated with the El Niño phenomenon and the need to conserve water reserves. EFE/ Carlos Lemos The administrator also presented an energy corridor to transport propane and butane between the two oceans, using pipelines that will not require water from the locks. This initiative is joined by the Corozal and Telfers container terminals, whose combined projected capacity would reach between five and six million TEUs annually, as part of commercial diversification. On the international front, Espino de Marotta highlighted the importance of the Neutrality Treaty to guarantee maritime transit, even during conflicts and disruptions to other trade routes. The administrator noted that more than 40 countries have adhered to the instrument, while the Canal seeks to strengthen its competitiveness and reliability in the face of climate and geopolitical challenges.