GDP is +0.9% in 2026, falling to +0.6% next year.

In 2026 and 2027, Italian GDP is expected to grow by 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively, following a +0.6% increase in 2025. Istat reports that economic growth would be supported by domestic demand net of inventories (+1.2 percentage points contribution in 2026 and +0.6 in 2027). Net foreign demand, however, is expected to provide a null contribution in 2026 and a slightly positive one in 2027. The rising prices of raw materials should fuel an acceleration of inflation: the change in the deflator of household spending is expected to reach +3.3% in 2026 before falling to +2.8% in 2027. The statistics institute observes that in the 2026-2027 biennium, consumption by households and private social institutions is forecast to expand, but at a decelerating pace: figures of +1.0% and +0.6% respectively, compared to the +1.2% recorded last year. According to Istat, price increases will curb consumption, despite a positive but substantially stable dynamic in nominal gross per capita wages. Regarding the business world, the most recent data on the supply side continue to show signs of weakness in the sector, and gross fixed investments are also showing a slowing dynamic (+2.9% in 2026 and +1.0% in 2027, down from 3.9% in 2025), caused mainly by the scaling back of public stimuli under current regulations. Istat therefore explains more generally that during the forecast biennium, the Italian economy would continue to benefit from the resilience of domestic demand, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025. Household consumption, despite pressures from rising prices on real wage dynamics, would be supported by the use of savings and the favorable trend in the labor market. Investments would continue to benefit, albeit to a progressively lesser extent, from the interventions still being completed under the PNRR, though they are affected by the high uncertainty of the geopolitical scenario and the increase in energy costs. Exports and imports, meanwhile, would continue to be supported by the positive dynamic of international trade. Labor Employment (in terms of jobs) is expected to see a slowdown in growth in 2026—at +0.9%, down from +1.2% in 2025—accompanied by a further drop in the unemployment rate to 6% from 6.1% last year. In 2027, a more contained expansion of employment (+0.5%) and a further drop in the unemployment rate to 5.9% are forecast. This is what Istat reports in its note on the trend and prospects of the Italian economy. Industrial Production In September 2026, a cyclical recovery in seasonally adjusted industrial production is recorded after the decline registered in August. Istat estimates that the index will increase by 1.2% compared to August. On average, in the third quarter, the level of production decreases by 0.4% compared to the previous three months. The monthly seasonally adjusted index shows cyclical increases for capital goods (+1.3%) and intermediate goods (+1.2%); negative variations are recorded for consumer goods (-0.2%) and energy (-1.4%). Excluding calendar effects, in September the general index decreases by 0.1% on a trend basis (calendar working days were 22, the same as in September 2025). The reduction is wider for consumer goods and intermediate goods, while growth is observed for capital goods and, above all, for energy. Towards a Slight Drop in Oil The growth of the Eurozone area should register substantial stability this year and next, thanks in part to the easing of geopolitical tensions and the consequent slight drop in oil prices, but "risks to the base scenario remain downward." Istat recalls that in 2026, the energy sector was characterized by high volatility and a widespread upward trend, with Brent prices rising above the $100 per barrel threshold. Concurrently, the natural gas market showed strong fluctuations linked to supply uncertainty and logistical price increases. For 2027, based on the hypothesis of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a gradual restoration of normal trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a moderate drop in Brent prices is expected during the year (to $96.1 per barrel, from $97.8 in 2026), while natural gas prices in Europe would remain at high levels (€60.9 per MWh, from €58.8 in 2026) due to a combination of structural supply constraints, storage dynamics, and logistical bottlenecks. Overall, the growth forecasts for the area highlight substantial stability for this year and next (+1.1% and +1.2% respectively, following +1.2% in 2025). In 2027, economic activity growth is expected to slow in Germany (from 1.3% to 1.1%) and Spain (from 2.5% to 1.5%), while a moderate acceleration is forecast in France (from 0.4% to 0.7%). Risks to the base scenario, however, remain downward. The persistence of geopolitical tensions could reactivate inflationary pressures. Concurrently, a reduction in expectations regarding productivity and profitability growth linked to the use of artificial intelligence risks triggering sharp corrections in the stock market, with consequences for the real economy. Reserved for Reproduction © Copyright ANSA