The war with Iran will cost the Gulf countries almost one trillion dollars in damages and losses until 2030

An Emirates Boeing 777 prepares to land in Dubai while a column of smoke rises from a fire near the airport, on March 16. (Photo: AFP) The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which began on February 28, will cost Gulf countries over $200 billion in physical damage and approximately $790 billion in economic losses until 2030, according to a report published this Wednesday by Allianz Trade, the credit insurance division of the German insurance group Allianz. The losses equate to an accumulated gap of 5.9% of the GDP of the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman) compared to the trajectory they had before the conflict. The figure measures the economic production that will cease between 2026 and 2030. It is almost four times the value of the material damage. Column of smoke over the Aramco refinery south of Riyadh, October 3. The Saudi oil company reported record profits despite attacks on its facilities. (Photo: REUTERS/archive) According to the insurer, physical damage is concentrated in the economies whose access to the sea depends on the Strait of Hormuz, especially in energy infrastructure. More than 80 oil and gas facilities were hit, most in Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain, and about a third were severely damaged. Iran restricted navigation through Hormuz, the passage through which much of the Gulf's crude oil and gas exits. It also attacked airports, ports, energy facilities, emblematic buildings, and American assets in Washington's allied countries. Allianz Trade predicts that the bloc's external surplus will be halved. Governments will reorient capital from their sovereign wealth funds toward domestic projects, which will contribute about $120 billion in additional local investment until 2030, at the expense of foreign investment. Public spending on infrastructure and defense will rise to between $380 billion and $400 billion until 2030. This opens up an opportunity of about $160 billion for private and foreign investors. The insurer maintains that official priorities are shifting from "megaprojects to resilience," including security works. Tourism and the real estate sector will grow more slowly for years. The estimate is added to those of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). On October 22, the organization projected that the Gulf economy would contract by 4.8% in 2026, after growing by 4.5% in 2025. This is 6.8 percentage points less than its April forecast, which was a growth of 2%. By country, the IMF forecasts declines of 16.7% in Kuwait, 15.6% in Qatar, and 11.3% in Bahrain, the most affected by the drop in hydrocarbon production and exports. For the Emirates, it projects -3.9%, and for Saudi Arabia, -3.3%. Oman, with +4.1%, is the only economy that would grow. The organization anticipates a rebound of 9.1% in 2027, provided hostilities end and traffic through Hormuz gradually resumes at the beginning of that year. Jihad Azour, IMF Director for the Middle East and Central Asia, said the conflict "has disturbed energy production, maritime transport, tourism, trade, and confidence." Satellite image of smoke over the Aramco refinery south of Riyadh, October 3, following attacks attributed to the Houthis. (Photo: European Union/Copernicus Sentinel-3 via REUTERS) High crude prices, driven by restrictions in Hormuz, partially compensate for the drop in volumes. Saudi Aramco, the Saudi state oil company, reported a net profit of $36.25 billion in the third quarter on November 3, 34% more than a year earlier. This occurred despite missile attacks on its headquarters in Dhahran and refineries in Jazan and Riyadh, and a temporary closure of the East-West pipeline, which Riyadh uses to bypass Hormuz. "Attacks on key energy facilities continued to amplify the global supply crisis," stated the company's president and CEO, Amin Nasser.