The Government's complicated outlook for suspending the primaries encourages Kicillof to hold a unified election in Buenos Aires Province

Meeting of Axel Kicillof with mayors of the MDF Peronism is closely watching the national government's moves to secure the votes needed to suspend the 2027 Open, Simultaneous and Mandatory Primaries (PASO). The intention of the Casa Rosada was defined months ago, although it requires congressional approval and, for now, La Libertad Avanza has not managed to gather the necessary backing. Time is a key factor. The Electoral Justice system, at its various levels, has warned that changes to the rules of competition must be resolved well in advance and outside the election year. The most recent precedent is 2025, when the suspension of the PASO was approved with the calendar already underway, forcing a reordering of deadlines, resources and procedures. Against that backdrop, Axel Kicillof is weighing a scenario that fits his political project: keeping the primaries and holding the Buenos Aires general election on the same day as the national one. A concurrent election, they analyze in La Plata, would allow the provincial governor to sustain his presidential projection without detaching himself from the territory that concentrates nearly 40% of the national electoral roll. "Axel has no other destiny than to be a presidential candidate," a conurbano mayor who took part this week in the meeting the governor led in La Plata told Infobae. The gathering brought together some 40 communal chiefs of the Movimiento Derecho al Futuro (MDF) and put on the table the discussion over the 2027 calendar, the PASO, mayoral re-elections and the political build-out of the force that answers to the governor. Kicillof with mayors of the Movimiento Derecho al Futuro (MDF) The possibility that there will be no splitting of the Buenos Aires election also affects the internal discussion within Peronism. In La Cámpora they recall that on April 14, 2025, Cristina Kirchner stated that Kicillof should not separate the provincial legislative election from the national one. In the end, the governor made the opposite decision and Buenos Aires residents voted on September 7, in an election that was detached from the national contest. That decision was read in different ways. In some sectors of the MDF it was interpreted as a gesture of autonomy by Kicillof vis-à-vis Kirchnerism. Now, with the possibility of a concurrent election, leaders close to Cristina Kirchner offer another reading. "A year and a half later, it seems Axel is heeding Cristina, who was right that there should be no splitting," they quip. The response from the governor's circle is that the scenarios are not comparable. In 2025, the national PASO had been suspended and the province had room to arrange its own schedule. For 2027, if the Primaries remain in force, Buenos Aires would have to go through a campaign of national internal elections and another for provincial offices. Under that scheme, in La Plata they consider that concurrency is the most orderly option, both politically and administratively. The problem for the government is that the suspension of the PASO is no longer an exclusively electoral discussion. The initiative has become tied to a broader negotiation with governors and allied blocs, who demand definitions about their districts, places on the lists and political agreements to back the ruling party. To modify an electoral law, the ruling coalition needs 37 votes in the Senate. La Libertad Avanza has its own base of 20 seats and aspires to add the ten senators of the Unión Cívica Radical, the three from the PRO and representatives of provincial forces. Even with that count, the number is not closed. Cabinet Chief Diego Santilli has been put in charge of the conversations with provincial governors. The official goal is to close a general understanding with the dialogue-minded sectors, secure parliamentary backing and then move forward with the treatment of the suspension of the primaries. Diego Santilli with governors Gustavo Sánz (Salta), Osvaldo Jaldo (Tucumán), Raúl Jalil (Catamarca) and Juan Pablo Valdés (Corrientes) On the table are the 2027 electoral agreements, each province's representation on the legislative lists, the relationship with local governments and resources for the provincial administrations. Several governors want those definitions resolved now, while sectors of the Casa Rosada prefer to postpone them until the campaign draws near. The negotiation also exposes differences within the ruling coalition. One sector of the libertarian political table holds that the suspension must be approved before the end of the year, to keep the debate from spilling into 2027 and becoming conditioned by the electoral calendar. Another view admits the definition could be postponed until the extraordinary sessions or even until February. The Cámara Nacional Electoral has already stated that changes to the electoral regime must be resolved with sufficient lead time. The federal judge with electoral jurisdiction in the province of Buenos Aires, Alejo Ramos Padilla, expressed a similar position and warned that decisions on the voting system should be made in non-electoral years. If the government fails to secure the votes in the coming weeks, the debate will reach 2027 with the alliances still forming, the governors positioned to demand more concessions and Peronism with a greater incentive to defend the continuity of the primaries. For the Casa Rosada, suspending the PASO would strip Peronism of an instrument for processing its differences. The libertarian calculation is that a fragmented opposition could broaden Javier Milei's chances of winning in the first round. In Fuerza Patria they hold the opposite diagnosis. Most of its leaders believe the primaries can organize a broad field, settle a presidential contest and prevent the differences among the MDF, La Cámpora, the Frente Renovador, governors, unions and other sectors from spilling into separate lists. The discussion has a particular chapter in the province of Buenos Aires. There, Kicillof's potential presidential candidacy overlaps with the need to resolve who will seek to succeed him in the Governorship. So far there is no consensus name for that race, and each sector preserves its leaders, mayors and territorial structures to negotiate from its own position. The MDF, La Cámpora and the Frente Renovador are in that negotiation, to which the mayors of La Liga Peronista also want to join. The mayors of the Liga seek to be part of the discussion over the Buenos Aires governorship With the PASO in force, that contest could be resolved under a shared rule. For Kicillof's circle, that stage would prevent the gubernatorial candidacy from being limited to a deal among top bosses. For other sectors, the primaries offer a tool to measure territorial strength, order the lists and legitimize a definition that, otherwise, could be crossed by tensions difficult to contain. Even if Congress suspended the national ones, the province keeps its own legislation and any change would require a decision by the Legislature. The only thing that is clear is that if there is a national PASO, the primaries in Buenos Aires Province will be held the same day. The debate, therefore, would not end with a national law: Peronism would have to decide whether to keep the local mechanism to define the governor and vice-governor formula, the sectional candidacies and the municipal disputes. The Single Paper Ballot would govern the national offices. For the provincial and municipal categories, Buenos Aires would have to define which instrument it will use. If it kept the traditional model, voters would have to vote with two systems in a single day and the polling places would have to adapt to that modality. In La Plata they understand that, with the PASO in force, repeating the 2025 split would be complex. The province would have to organize a local primary, a national primary and then two separate general elections. That calendar would imply four election days in a few months, with political and administrative costs that the Buenos Aires ruling party seeks to avoid. In principle, the concurrent election would also serve Kicillof's presidential strategy. The governor could lead a national campaign with the Buenos Aires structure activated on the same date and with the mayors as protagonists of the territorial contest, although it remains to be resolved what will happen with indefinite re-elections. The Buenos Aires agenda incorporates that discussion. There are 81 mayors who could not run for a new term in 2027 unless the current law is modified. Of that total, 52 belong to Peronism and 28 are aligned with the MDF. Kicillof needs agreements with Kirchnerism, Massism and sectors of the opposition to advance in the Legislature. That negotiation adds another layer to the dispute over the electoral calendar. The possible reform of re-elections, the provincial PASO, the Buenos Aires succession and the national candidacies are all part of the same conversation. For now, the scenario that best fits the governor's strategy is one of primaries in force, open competition to define the Governorship and concurrent elections. The definition will depend, first of all, on whether or not the government manages to secure the votes to change the rules.