Red Circle: Milei plays for all or nothing while the establishment speculates on how far Bullrich will push things

Presidential advisor Santiago Caputo "Rest assured that Javier's plan will come out… As for me, there's no chance I end up well," Santiago Caputo told journalists Manuel Jove and Maia Jastreblansky, as recorded in the biography of the presidential consultant written by both of them. It is difficult to predict the ending, beyond a few hints, but the advisor likes to flirt with the abyss, and when he does, he seems to enjoy it. It just happened with the departure of Flavio Bolsonaro from Brazil to the United States through Misiones, a cinematic operation that Caputo supervised inside Argentina in contact with the family of the former candidate under investigation by the Brazilian judiciary and with interlocutors of the American administration, who guaranteed the operation. Javier Milei knew about the plan since Monday: that guarantee was one of the reasons he decided he would not recognize the victory of Lula da Silva while all the region's presidents, regardless of ideology, were congratulating the veteran PT leader who will begin his fourth term in the summer. Beyond the nuances and the depth of the bond they have forged over these years with the red circle — despite his public rebelliousness, the consultant, unlike the president, has built and maintains very smooth relations with the political and business establishment — there is a common thread between the two: a certain fascination with spectacle, with playing to the limit, and with an unconventional exercise of power. Almost always, all or nothing. Official sources say that the week before the Brazilian runoff, envoys from the Republican administration, led by Christopher Landau, who visited Argentina signaled that the election in the neighboring country was not going, as Caputo likes to say, according to plan. It happened in the context of the meeting held at the Economy Ministry with Luis and Santiago Caputo, which the minister made sure to publicize through the ministry's official channels with a carefully edited video to highlight the presence of the libertarian strategist. A week of pure show that continued with the Faro Foundation dinner and ended with the Puerto Iguazú operation. "Toto" and Milei's star consultant have made it their business in recent times to put about the idea that the relationship with the American government depends to a large extent on them. Both economically and politically. Santiago Caputo, Luis Caputo and ambassador Peter Lamelas That explains, in part, why the operation in Puerto Iguazú, which was scheduled for the early hours of Tuesday and was delayed by 24 hours — that first alteration of the original plan triggered unusual paranoia in Las Fuerzas del Cielo — was supervised in person by the consultant. For that purpose, a phenomenal distraction maneuver was mounted by collaborators that included a high level of secrecy — first-line officials learned of it with the deed nearly done — and the full-time service of officials from the Yacyretá entity, such as Orlando Palacios and Jorge Waisman, who were exposed when they were delayed by a provincial checkpoint alongside Milei's chief advisor. Because of that police operation, there were frictions with Governor Hugo Passalacqua. However, perhaps one of the biggest impacts of the Bolsonaro operation and the president's decision not to recognize Lula's victory, which showcased the government's unconditional alignment with the Trump administration, may be associated with the further deterioration in the relationship between the Casa Rosada and Patricia Bullrich. Disagreeing with the official position, the senator endorsed the PT leader's victory on Wednesday on her social media: she had plenty of time to process the Bolsonaro operation and to learn the level of the Government's collaboration with the former presidential candidate. That post may have been a turning point in the relationship with the Milei brothers, who are increasingly fed up with the former minister. Official sources are confident that it is no longer only Karina Milei who is furious with the senator, but also the president. Now Caputo has joined in — until now he had functioned internally as an ally of Bullrich in the "holy war" — as it is described in her circle — unleashed between the head of the libertarian bloc in the Senate and the Menems. On Friday, Martín Menem said publicly that in La Libertad Avanza there is no room for two leaderships: Milei reposted messages with those statements on his social networks. Brazilian senator Flávio Bolsonaro disembarks from a plane upon his arrival at the Opa-locka executive airport, near Miami, Florida, United States To what extent Bullrich is able to clash with Milei is the most recurring question in the red circle, which keeps fantasizing about a rupture that would pave the way for the senator's candidacy. "All the way to the Presidency," replied a member of her circle when asked about that concern running through the establishment. "Things are getting rushed," they said from that circle in the middle of the week. That question also reaches representatives of the American administration, who spread an unequivocal message through the red circle: "We must work for Milei's reelection." Close to the senator they still recall some sparks during the 2023 campaign with the then American ambassador, Mark Stanley. Just over fifteen days ago, Bullrich received at her offices a group of like-minded economists — at least three — to analyze the direction of the economic program. A pessimistic diagnosis was shared. The senator does not believe everything is going according to plan — quite the opposite. And she often says so publicly. She wants to protect her political capital: for that she produces campaign ads that involve hours of editing and usually carry an increasingly explicit message to the Casa Rosada. Her latest TikTok piece got 4.8 million views. In the Government they are also convinced that Bullrich is not actively working to achieve the suspension of the PASO primaries, a priority objective of the Casa Rosada within the political reform. They even believe she negotiated with Peronism the summoning of the Chief of Staff for the end of November. Diego Santilli no longer knows how to hold back the impatience of allied governors who are willing to close a deal with the Government in exchange for clear rules of the game in their districts: basically, that competitors are not installed on them. It is no longer even a matter of money. Time is running out as the end of the year approaches. Internally, the delay is blamed on the Menems, who insist on installing leaders in several provinces. Karina Milei has doubts. Santilli waits: he has still not been able to assure any governor that his superiors will validate his promises. Karina Milei, Diego Santilli and Governor Maximiliano Pullaro That position of Eduardo and Martín Menem exposes one of the differences with Caputo, who once again began actively relating with some governors after the confinement he subjected himself to when he lost the internal power struggle with the president's sister and was stripped of control of the political strategy and of the relationship with the Judiciary. In recent times, he has met with several provincial leaders in Buenos Aires, in the strictest secrecy. "There are at least half a dozen of them who want to close the deal through him," said a source with interests in that sector. The consultant outed himself publicly in Iguazú, during the Bolsonaro operation, in a display of power and of his apparent closeness to a sector of the Republican Party, and to show that he still provides valuable services in the name of the President's cultural battle, an aspect of governance to which Milei devotes most of his time. "He is more a chancellor of ideas than a president," defined him a libertarian operator. Caputo, in any case, provides far more than services to Milei. The President does not seem to know the scope or magnitude of the areas controlled by his star consultant. In that universe, Macarena Alifraco has taken on a greater role recently — a premium collaborator of the advisor who came to monitor Customs and PAMI. There have been recent movements in Ezeiza. Francisco, the strategist's brother, has a key role. Relations outside that group have begun to change in recent times. Names are starting to gain increasing prominence. For example, that of Juan Pablo Mazzola. None of them holds an official position. Patricia Bullrich, national senator for LLA It's the economy… Milei is on a different wavelength. He devoted the last week almost exclusively to following the ins and outs of the Bolsonaro operation and its regional implications. On the domestic front, he is focused only on managing the economic program, which he decided to maintain rigorously through a firm fiscal discipline that the Economy Minister executed to the letter. So much so that, several months ago, the food supply for Olivos was cut — by mistake — to sustain the adjustment policy. The longest memories recalled when, before the 2001 crisis, the catering service on the presidential plane was cut — not by mistake. "Toto" Caputo is worried. He has expressed it in various private meetings with economists or like-minded leaders, whom he asked, one by one, what to do about the meager results of the program. That concern has reached the officials of the IMF's mission for Argentina, who have also raised concerns about the future sustainability of the program in reserved meetings with economists and consultants. For example, regarding monetary policy. One of those economists coined the concept of "Argen-RIGI" in reference to the "20%" of activity experiencing an expansion driven by the boom in mining, agriculture, and oil & gas concentrated in those sectors, which will provide the Central Bank with a rain of dollars next year. They are the undisputed winners of the model. The problem is electoral uncertainty, which led, for example, to a rise in the country risk to 790 basis points, and the hedging that savers seek against that volatility: in 2025, an election year, the dollarization of portfolios by Argentines reached USD 32 billion. Economy Minister Luis Caputo meets with the head of the UIA, Martín Rappallini, Rodrigo Pérez Graziano and Eduardo Nougués to discuss economic matters. (@LuisCaputoAr) Karina Milei's statements on Thursday in Rosario were quite a novelty in that regard, when she raised the need for those investments to converge into greater employment for local SMEs. It is the discussion that industrialists brought to the Senate during the debate on the Súper RIGI. Industry is battered, and the Government seems to have become aware of the seriousness of that punishment. That is why this week "Toto" Caputo and Santilli will attend a UIA meeting, unlike what happened months ago, when the ruling party emptied out the entity's annual meeting in Greater Buenos Aires. The conurbation is the hardest hit by the Government's economic policy. On Wednesday, at noon on Infobae, the bishop of San Justo, Eduardo García, said it was the first time they had had to space out the service of soup kitchens due to lack of funds through the UNDP program administered by Human Capital. He said that attendance at those soup kitchens had recently returned to pandemic levels. Mayors of Greater Buenos Aires have begun to notice, in that context, a greater level of discontent among the most disadvantaged sectors. It is bad news for Santilli, who still appears determined to run in the province of Buenos Aires. He does not believe, as some in the libertarian leadership do — the President included? — that it is better to leave the fate of Buenos Aires province to Peronism and not spend a peso in that district.