"The erosion of the welfare state's capacity in Europe is the key to understanding the protests led by young people"

Image source, AFP via Getty Images Author, Author's title, BBC News Mundo Publication date 47 minutes ago Reading time: 10 min A wave of protests is flooding several countries in Europe. In France, the demonstrations began with demands to improve education. In Spain, the eviction of the elderly Maricarmen from the house where she had lived as a tenant for decades sparked another movement, with people camping for weeks in Madrid's central Puerta del Sol. And in Italy, young people and unions are also protesting against the country's "war economy." Portugal, Belgium, Albania. The list goes on and on. The protests that began two years ago in Serbia have also taken a turn in recent months. In September, the country's president, Aleksandar Vucic, resigned, and in elections held early this week, the veteran leader acknowledged his defeat to a student movement. In some cases, as seen in Paris, part of the protests turned violent. What motivates these mobilizations? What makes them different? BBC Mundo interviewed Yanina Welp, a political scientist and expert in the study of democracy, political participation, parties, and social movements. Skip Most read and continue reading Most read End of Most read The academic is also a senior researcher at the Albert Hirschman Center on Democracy in Geneva, at the Geneva Graduate Institute (Switzerland), and is also a Research Professor at the University of Girona (Spain). Image source, Yanina Welp Photo caption, "We are in a time of extreme pessimism that we must get out of," says Yanina Welp. We are seeing a wave of protests, of different kinds, in several European countries: France, Italy, Serbia, Spain. Do they have anything in common? Yes, they do. But let's also look at it with historical perspective. There are waves of protests more or less every 10 years, and we can see it in Europe and beyond. Between 1999, 2000, and 2001 we had the anti-globalization movement protests, which started in Seattle and spread. In 2010, 2011, and 2012 there was the indignados movement, Occupy Wall Street. Around the same time, the Arab Spring occurred, which responded to a different context. In 2017 the yellow vests began (in France), and shortly after, in 2019, Ecuador, Chile, Colombia, and around the world student movements took to the streets. And now, we can speak of this new wave that has Europe as its epicenter. So, the questions are always: what do they have in common? How much imitation is involved? In sociology, studies on social movements show that there are usually common elements when protests like these occur in a more or less delimited space. There are similar contexts and actors. Although, then, things get more complicated. And what do these protests in particular have in common? The most general label, the common umbrella, would be the loss of capacity of the welfare state in the European context. In France and Belgium, the trigger for the protests was the conditions of education; in Spain and Portugal, housing is at the center, although in Spain there are also demands regarding education. Looking at them closely and delving deeper, there are common elements related to that crisis or weakness of the welfare state and with young people, I would say, as the main affected, both in the present and in their future prospects. Image source, Andreas SOLARO / AFP via Getty Images Photo caption, Students are also protesting in Italy. Are those protesting mostly young people? Following the earlier overview, we can go even further back, to May '68 (in 1968), which had its epicenter in France but also manifested in other places, such as China or Mexico. That was a year of youth protests around the world. The same happened with the fall of the Berlin Wall. Young people tend to be the protagonists, along with unions, where they exist and are strong. Because of their enthusiasm, their ability to dedicate time, they tend to mobilize more. Although it is not always the case by default. For example, the 2019 protests in Ecuador originated in the indigenous movement. While youth is a central actor, it is not the only one, and in any protest that is sustained over time we will see more actors join in. Because, besides, one thing is the protest, taking to the streets and demonstrating, which is very reactive, and another thing is obtaining the demands and being able to transform them into claims that the political system can respond to. And then we can also ask whether the political system wants to respond. And how it will respond. How do these kinds of movements emerge? One must distinguish between the trigger, that which lights the fuse, and the conditions. Sometimes there are structural conditions and the question is: why does nobody protest if things are this bad? Until suddenly, Maricarmen is evicted. Then the neighboring country or neighboring cities say: 'we can't take it anymore either.' Then you have a wave. It's not imitation by magic, no, the conditions were there and what was missing was something to act as a trigger. Image source, Gustavo Valiente/Europa Press via Getty Images Photo caption, The protests in Spain were activated after the eviction of the elderly Maricarmen. How feasible is it that today's movements in Europe will achieve their demands regarding the crisis of the welfare state? We are in a time of extreme pessimism that we must get out of, because politics is always the possibility of change. It is also true that, in general, the demands are very radical and the achievements are always smaller, when there are any. But there is always a way out. Although there is a certain trap in European politics where it is said that young people have less weight in aging societies, we know that, when there are (electoral) emergencies, they mobilize. In the case of young men, they do so for the radical right and, against the radical right, women do. But in general, the political system tends to respond to those with more electoral weight. What is happening now is that there is a great intergenerational inequality with different dimensions, including political influence. And that is putting a lot of tension on the current system. Regarding generational inequality, has it always been this way or is the gap even greater? I believe it has grown a lot due to the confluence of processes of different kinds. For example, for a working family 40 years ago it was possible to take on a mortgage and buy an apartment in 10 years. Now that is completely impossible. The relationship between capital and labor has changed and inequality has expanded enormously. On the other hand, there have been successive educational reforms that have made it increasingly costly to study degrees that are shorter, but then you have to go on to a master's, you have to pay for the master's. There are also sociodemographic changes that cause young people, in political terms, to lose weight and capacity for influence. And everything makes intergenerational inequality increasingly pronounced. Image source, Kiran RIDLEY / AFP via Getty Images Photo caption, "Ten years of nothing: despair and anger," reads this protest sign in Paris. Do you see anything different in these protests compared to previous waves? A novelty that we have seen not only in Paris, but also in other places, is that a form of implementing repressive policies has been legitimized that was not so strong 10 or 15 years ago, and that was not well regarded. And it is seen even aesthetically. You can see how local police have been armed. In the City of Buenos Aires, for example, the equipment that the local police has is suddenly straight out of a movie; there is an overacting of what order implies. This, of course, penalizes protest, which is a right, and saying that protest is a right has nothing to do with legitimizing violence. In fact, saying that protests legitimize violence removes from the negotiating table, or from the possibility of dialogue, a series of demands that are much bigger and that transcend that violence, which also exists, and which must be acted upon. Only showing the violence discredits them. It is extremely problematic. And besides, now, everything that happens anywhere in the world is understood in domestic terms and the protests are read in places in Latin America as "this is what the left will bring us if it wins," for example, 'they will burn everything down.' But the dynamics of protest, the actors, the institutions, have a lot of specificities that do not respond to that. What do you think this escalation in the visibility of the use of force is due to? To put it briefly: the extreme toxic polarization we are experiencing. Image source, Veronique de Viguerie/Getty Images Photo caption, Welp emphasizes that one of the novelties of these protests is the extreme visibility of the use of force to repress demonstrators. These protests, which are demands to improve the welfare state, appear in a context in which Europe's political pendulum is swinging to the right. It is complex because, for example, part of the reason Marine Le Pen has real chances of leading the Executive in France is related to her having started talking about the welfare state. But with the concept of a chauvinist welfare state, that is, only for "the French." Yes, like Vox in Spain with its "national priority." Exactly. There are actors who directly reject the welfare state, but the situation is not so linear. There is a kind of total rupture between right and left around issues related to the welfare state, but I would say that what most divides these groups today is the anti-immigration politics in sectors of the far right and what they call the "culture war," more than the welfare state itself. Nobody dares to speak out against the welfare state, as Milei does in Argentina, because they know it would cost them a lot of votes. These protests, these social movements that are emerging in Europe, who can they benefit and who not? When we have a process of this kind, the outcome depends on how each one plays their cards. If you look at France, I think it is the most prominent example. Right now, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is with the people who are protesting, and Marine Le Pen, with the police. The former thinks "this will bring me electoral gains," the latter, "fear of disorder will bring me electoral gains." Who will come out winning? It depends on how it evolves. But it is clear that, in the case of France, the one with everything to lose is Emmanuel Macron. Although, returning to the issue of violence, the constant bombardment about it benefits the right, fearful of disorder. But if the message sinks in that things cannot continue like this, the political systems will have to respond to young and old alike, and there will be more opportunities for the left. Politics is a constant movement; we live in a process where there is more acceleration, less reflection, and more impact, and that really greatly weakens the capacity for democratic deliberation. Who will come out winning? We don't know. We could certainly make scenarios and see what the probabilities are of one thing or another happening. But, fortunately, politics leaves a certain margin of uncertainty and capacity for agency. Image source, Andrej ISAKOVIC / AFP via Getty Images Photo caption, In Serbia, after two years of protests, the student movement managed to get the president to resign, elections were called, and they emerged victorious this week. Is there any formula to get out of this pessimism that seems to reign right now, not only in Europe, but is something more general? First of all, I think we must aim to be more autonomous and critical regarding the information we receive. I tell this a lot to my students. They are very young, they come with that narrative of 'this is a disaster.' Well, let's have some perspective. I was born and, shortly after, there was a dictatorship [in Argentina]. It is not the same to compare a dictatorship with a government I really dislike. On the other hand, I think some sectors benefit from pushing this narrative of catastrophe, against which it seems we can do nothing. But things can always be done, always. I think we must come out of that relative passivity and act. We must also come out of hyperlocal narratives, because they make us think that, since things are so bad, we can do nothing. But in our immediate environment we can do a lot. And many "environments" doing things change the world. So, I think there is nothing new under the sun. It is about recovering full awareness of what politics implies, what change implies. And also, again, a certain criticism and more common sense when evaluating where we live and how we live. With this narrative that things cannot get worse, be careful, because things can indeed get worse. Much worse. Download the new BBC World Service app. Choose BBC News Mundo and receive news alerts, documentaries, and analysis, all in one place. Important: the new app is not available in the United Kingdom or the United States. You can also follow us on YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, X, and on our WhatsApp channel. 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