The electoral comeback, digital mobilization, and the challenges of a fourth term: the keys to Lula's historic victory in Brazil

Lula da Silva won a historic runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro and will take office for a fourth term in Brazil (REUTERS) Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth term after overturning Flávio Bolsonaro's lead from the first round and winning the runoff with 64,256,232 votes, equivalent to 51.79% of valid ballots, compared to his rival's 59,826,041 votes, which reached 48.21%. The campaign of the leader of the Workers' Party (PT) combined territorial gains with higher voter turnout and mobilization in the streets and on social media. At 80 years old, Lula became the Brazilian president with the most complete democratic terms. Moreover, since the country's return to democracy in 1985, no head of state had managed to overturn a first-round defeat in the second round. The result also widened the margin he obtained in 2022 against Jair Bolsonaro, his rival's father and then president, when he won by 2.1 million votes and 1.8 percentage points. In the runoff, Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro by 4.4 million votes, a difference of 3.58 percentage points. In the first round, held on October 4, the senator had obtained 47.03% of the votes, compared to the president's 45.16%. However, in the three weeks before the runoff, the president added 10.4 million more votes than in the first round, while the senator added around 3.7 million. The two candidates sought to capture part of the 9.3 million votes obtained by the eliminated candidates and to mobilize voters who had not participated in the first vote. The geographic distribution of the vote explains part of the electoral shift. Lula went from winning in 2,663 municipalities in the first round to winning in 2,870 in the runoff, while Flávio Bolsonaro dropped from 2,906 to 2,695 localities, according to data released by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) with 99% of ballots counted. The president managed to prevail in 213 municipalities where his rival had won in the first round, with changes in 18 states. Among them are the capitals of Rio de Janeiro and Macapá. Minas Gerais was the state with the most municipalities that changed candidates, with 76, followed by São Paulo, with 33; Paraná, with 20; Rio Grande do Sul, with 19; Goiás, with 14; and Tocantins, with 12. In Minas Gerais, the country's second-largest electorate, Lula went from losing by nearly 590,000 votes to winning by about 99,000. The shift represented a change of nearly 690,000 votes in the difference between the candidates. The state, which backed the winner of every direct presidential election since 1989, once again aligned with the national result. The president managed to prevail in 213 municipalities where his rival had won in the first round, with changes in 18 states (REUTERS) Flávio Bolsonaro kept his lead in the states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, but Lula prevailed in the capitals of both districts, the two largest cities in Brazil. In the city of Rio de Janeiro, the senator had obtained 47.88% in the first round, compared to the president's 43.91%. In the runoff, Lula reversed the result with 51.54% of the votes, against his rival's 48.46%. Another factor was the president's support in the nine northeastern states, a key region for the PT. The combination of those results with gains in other territories made it possible to offset Bolsonaro's advantage among part of the electorate in the south and southeast. The reduction in abstention was another central element of the comeback. The percentage of voters who did not go to the polls fell from 21.08% in the first round to approximately 19.2% in the second. In absolute terms, the number of people who did not vote dropped from about 33 million to 30 million, adding nearly three million voters to turnout. The additional mobilization did not translate entirely into votes for Lula, but it proved relevant in an election whose first round had ended with a difference of just over 2.2 million ballots. Null and blank votes also decreased, reaching their lowest level, according to the data released about the election. The PT campaign reinforced its digital strategy after finishing second in the first round. The goal was not only to convince undecided voters, but also to get citizens who already backed the president to go vote. One of the initiatives was the WhatsApp channel "Lula's Army," driven by Congressman André Janones, of the Sustainability Party (Rede Sustentabilidade) from Minas Gerais. The group brought together more than 10 million people and spread audios, videos, and instructions for sharing campaign content on social media. The PT campaign reinforced its digital strategy after finishing second in the first round (REUTERS) The electoral strategy also included measures and initiatives aimed at voters' concrete concerns. Lula enacted a law to raise the revenue cap for the individual micro-entrepreneur regime, proposed new plans to renegotiate consumer debts, and advocated ending online betting, whose expansion contributed to household indebtedness. The economy was one of the main sources of wear for the president during the campaign. Although inflation decreased and employment showed improvements, those indicators did not eliminate the discontent over the cost of living, debts, and household expenses. On security, Lula also moved closer to one of the right's main banners by expressing his willingness to lower the age of criminal responsibility to 16 for serious crimes. The proposal responded to a demand for greater firmness against crime, one of the central issues of the campaign. The president must now decide whether to turn that position into a concrete initiative. The victory allows him to remain in power, but it also obliges him to respond to the expectations he raised during the campaign. The cost of living, household indebtedness, and security are among the issues he will have to address during his fourth term. The composition of Congress will be one of the main obstacles for the incoming government. Right-wing parties will hold 303 of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, compared to 124 for the left and 86 for the center. In the Senate, the right will hold about two-thirds of the seats. The legislative distribution will force Lula to seek agreements beyond his political base to push forward his proposals and sustain his administration's priorities. The map of state governments also reflects the presence of the conservative camp: Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) won five governorships; Republicans and the Progressive Party (PP), four each; and the PT, another four. The Social Democratic Party (PSD) won five. The composition of Congress will be one of the main obstacles for the incoming government (REUTERS) After confirming his victory, Lula referred to the need to govern for the whole country and to negotiate with a Legislature in which he lacks a majority. "Once we win the election, we no longer have adversaries. I have to govern for 215 million people," he said. He also acknowledged the parliamentary scenario he will have to face: "I did not choose Congress. The people chose it. And it is with that Congress that I will vote, work, and get things done." Fiscal constraints will add pressure to those negotiations. Debt, the deficit, and high interest rates limit the room to expand public spending and pose difficulties for financing campaign promises without compromising social programs. Decisions on spending and available resources will be conditioned by the need to reach parliamentary agreements. The victory also has consequences for Brazil's international positioning. Lula will retain the presidency of Latin America's largest economy and will maintain the trade relationship with China, its main trading partner, while he must define the course of the relationship with the United States under Donald Trump's administration. The triumph prevented a victory by Flávio Bolsonaro, backed by Trump, from consolidating a political shift in Brazil favorable to Washington. Throughout the year, Lula maintained a position of defending Brazilian sovereignty against American trade and political pressures, though he avoided turning every difference into a direct confrontation. "Brazil does not fit in anyone's backyard," Lula said before the United Nations General Assembly in September.