Lula's victory unsettles the Government and raises questions about the 2027 electoral landscape

President Javier Milei alongside his Brazilian counterpart, Lula da Silva, at the G20After an intense election day in Brazil, marked by a historic comeback by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, President Javier Milei resumes his domestic agenda this Monday with a Cabinet meeting, after two weeks without meeting with his ministers, and prepares to strengthen his presence in the country's interior with a series of visits to Catamarca and Neuquén. The victory of his regional adversary, with 51.79% of the vote against 48.21% for the right-winger Flávio Bolsonaro, sparked an internal debate within the government. Within the Executive Branch coexist those who warn of possible fraud, in line with the criticisms of the Brazilian opposition, and those who believe the result does not alter Milei's regional leadership or his dialogue with the United States. The ruling party, and particularly the libertarian wing, refrained from publicly commenting and congratulating da Silva, even though both candidates spoke after the results were known. The right-wing candidate's refusal to acknowledge the election delayed the planned statement. In contrast, Chilean Antonio Kast and Paraguayan Santiago Peña were among the first to congratulate Lula da Silva, and several right-wing figures in the region joined in the congratulations. Once the trend favoring Lula, who will seek a fourth term, was consolidated, several libertarian figures began privately analyzing the impact of the outcome on the regional stage. "TMAP," they celebrated in one of the offices of the Casa Rosada, alluding to the acronym popularized by the presidential advisor Santiago Caputo to argue that "everything is going according to plan." In that reading, the current result does not change the position Milei seeks as the United States' regional ally and preserves his direct relationship with Donald Trump. Something similar was raised by the advisor himself, one of the few to speak out, through his X account: "The reality is that none of the opinion peddlers knows what they're talking about and all they do is venture predictions based on their own biases. Here, the only one who can see the future is me, a talent inherited from my late grandfather. Stay calm, because everything is going according to plan." Presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro after the publication of the results (REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian)In ruling party ranks they claim that for several weeks they had been noticing a shift in the trend favoring the PT leader. In fact, a member of Las Fuerzas del Cielo had anticipated that outcome, despite the lead Bolsonaro had obtained in the first round, held on October 4. At Balcarce 50 they identify several factors that, in their view, explain the defeat of the right-wing senator. On the one hand, they argue that the latest economic measures and the changes to the workday had an impact on the poorest areas, such as the Brazilian northeast and Amazonas. They also attribute a key role to the votes of women and young people, among whom, according to their analysis, the senator's proposals found the greatest resistance. As a third factor, they consider that Lula managed to capitalize on an important share of the votes that Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado had obtained in the first round. "The rejection of Bolsonaro was very strong," detected an official. "There were important issues like the 6x1, campaign money, and the fear his proposal generates among women and young people. Some are going to have to watch out here. This impacts the international landscape. Now comes the United States election. When you stake everything strongly on a trend, that has considerable influence," warned an official source. Along the same lines, some officials detect that Brazil's resistance to the right's advance gives "air to Peronism," and although they acknowledge that there is more than a year to go before the 2027 Argentine elections, they warn that an adverse trend for the ruling party is beginning to take shape. "There is one year until the election in Argentina. A year is a long time, but even today a complicated trend can be seen," said a libertarian source with extensive political experience. Supporters of the Workers' Party in Brazil (REUTERS/Mateus Bonomi)In turn, a figure who walks the halls of the Casa Rosada daily noted that Bolsonaro's defeat weakens the narrative Milei built by backing the right-wing candidate and projecting an international alliance of right-wing leaders. "As you tried to climb aboard, your narrative gets taken away and, above all, it gives air to Peronism, which starts to mobilize things. The movements have already begun because the government is not doing well. All of this adds up in the same direction, especially since it was an unexpected comeback," they told this outlet. Despite Lula's victory, in libertarian ranks they emphasize that the Liberal Party retains significant weight in the Brazilian Congress, with 121 deputies and 28 senators, compared to the Workers' Party's (PT) 70 deputies and nine senators. In their view, that composition could complicate the president's governance over the next four years and limit his room for maneuver. Nevertheless, some warn that diplomatic relations with Brazil will remain difficult and believe the victory gives Lula greater political predictability, while Milei will have to focus on electoral groundwork ahead of the upcoming elections. Intent on resuming his domestic activity, the president receives this Monday at 9:45 the Prince and Grand Master of the Sovereign Order of Malta, Frey John Dunlap, and will then meet with his full team at the Casa Rosada. It remains to be seen the message the president will convey to his ministers, after, following the first round in Brazil, he criticized the platita plan for responding to "recipes from the past" and argued that those policies do not explain the election results. President Javier Milei chairs a Cabinet meeting at the Casa RosadaBeyond the regional stage, the libertarian administration will have to organize its internal agenda and push forward the reforms it still has pending. In parallel, it faces other political and judicial fronts that condition the ruling party's dynamics. To the setback on the regional stage were added the moves of Senator Patricia Bullrich, who, after posting a suggestive video with electoral overtones, once again marked her differences with Javier Milei. This time, she criticized the president for his statements at the Faro Foundation and said he had crossed "a line" when speaking of "burning journalists at the stake." With the electoral reform, the 2027 Budget, and the Malvinas Law still pending, Milei will travel on Tuesday at 5 p.m. to Catamarca to attend the inauguration of new lithium carbonate production plants by Río Tinto. He will be accompanied by the Presidential Secretary General, Karina Milei, and the Chief of Staff, Diego Santilli. On Saturday, meanwhile, he will visit Neuquén to attend the inauguration of an auditorium for the evangelical church Jesús es Rey.