In 2025, Brazil emitted 1.41 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in greenhouse gases on a net basis. The number represents a nine percent shrinkage compared to the 1.489 emitted in 2024, bringing the country’s net emissions to their lowest level since 2012.
Excluding carbon removed by secondary vegetation – which has expanded – and by protected areas, Brazil emitted 2.06 GtCO2e on a gross basis in 2025. The figure represents a six percent decrease compared to the gross 2.19 emitted in 2024. This was the lowest gross volume emitted since 2018.
The data come from the 14th report of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimation System (SEEG), released Wednesday (Oct. 21) by the Climate Observatory.
According to David Tsai, SEEG coordinator and researcher at the Institute of Energy and Environment (IEMA), the figures show that over the past four years, Brazil has cut its gross emissions by a quarter.
“It’s a noteworthy achievement, given that in the previous 13 years – since [Brazil] published its National Climate Policy in 2009 – the country saw its emissions increase by two-thirds,” he noted.
A record
In 2025, the total value of gross emissions was once again influenced by lower deforestation, which, in the SEEG sectoral classification, falls under land-use change. This sector accounted for 814 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) – a 15 percent decrease in gross emissions compared to the 957 recorded in 2024.
When considering the net figures for this sector, the decline from 2024 to 2025 was 48 percent, falling from 311 to 162 MtCO2e – the lowest figure in the entire time series.
Gross emissions from the other sectors showed little variation, either up or down, in 2025. Agriculture and livestock saw a 0.1 percent decrease, accounting for 626 MtCO2e of total gross emissions.
Emissions from the energy sector rose by 1.2 percent – from 422 MtCO2e in 2024 to 427 in 2025. Emissions from industrial processes and product use increased by only 0.2 percent, remaining at 94 MtCO2e.
The waste sector recorded the largest increase from 2024 to 2025, with emissions rising by 3.6 percent, from 92 MtCO2e to 96 MtCO2e.
Land-use change accounted for 39 percent of Brazil’s gross emissions in 2025, while direct emissions from agriculture and livestock accounted for an additional 30 percent. Together, when direct and indirect emissions from the sector are considered, they make agriculture and livestock the largest national emitter.
The energy sector follows with 21 percent.
Industrial processes and waste management each accounted for five percent of total emissions in 2025.
Target
With these reductions, Brazil is now just 85 million metric tons away from meeting the climate target set for 2025 in its first nationally determined contribution (NDC), submitted in 2015.
The target stipulated that the country should limit net greenhouse gas emissions to 1.32 GtCO2e by 2025 – a figure that is expected to be reached this year following a record decline in deforestation in the Amazon and the cerrado biomes.
“Unfortunately, we ended up slightly above the target, but very close to it. In 2030, there’s a lower target, but by 2026 we’ll be somewhere between the 2025 and 2030 targets,” David Tsai said.
Preliminary data released by the Climate Observatory indicate negative net emissions from deforestation for this year with an estimated figure of minus 24 MtCO2e.