Today, Sunday, October 25, Brazilians vote for their next president in the 2026 runoff. It is a tightly contested race in which, as the weeks went by, the gap between the two candidates kept narrowing, according to poll measurements.
The polling firms measuring Brazilian voting intentions show a one-point difference, depending on the pollster; and in all cases the conservative figure Flavio Bolsonaro ranks first and the current president Lula da Silva, second.
Latest poll for the Brazil election: they anticipate Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro come out 47 to 48
According to the latest survey by Datafolha, commissioned by the newspapers O Globo and Folha de Sao Paulo and released this Saturday, October 24, in the simulated runoff scenario Flavio Bolsonaro obtains 48% of total votes and Lula da Silva 47%.
The difference between the candidates is just one point, with 3% corresponding to blank votes, spoiled ballots, or respondents who said they will not vote; meanwhile, 2% are undecided.
Bolsonaro's lead over Lula falls within the poll's margin of error, so no clear winner can be identified in the survey, a trend that had already been repeating itself in opinion studies in recent days.
Regarding methodology, Datafolha stressed that the poll was conducted through 4,050 interviews with voters over 16 years of age, between October 23 and 24. The margin…
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Today, Sunday, October 25, Brazilians vote for their next president in the 2026 runoff. It is a tight race in which, as the weeks went by, the gap between the two candidates kept narrowing, according to poll measurements. The firms measuring Brazilian voting intentions show a one-point difference, depending on the pollster; and in all cases the conservative figure Flavio Bolsonaro is in first place and the current president Lula da Silva, second. Vote percentages for the runoff between Lula and Bolsonaro (Source: ARCHIVO LA NACION) Latest poll for the Brazil election: they anticipate Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro come out 47 to 48 According to the latest survey by Datafolha, commissioned by the newspapers O Globo and Folha de Sao Paulo and released this Saturday, October 24, in total votes Flavio Bolsonaro obtains 48% and Lula da Silva 47%, in the simulated runoff scenario. The difference between the candidates is just one point, and 3% corresponds to blank, null votes or respondents who said they will not vote; meanwhile, 2% are undecided. Bolsonaro's lead over Lula falls within the poll's margin of error, so no clear winner can be seen in the survey, a trend that had already been repeating in opinion studies in recent days. Regarding methodology, Datafolha stressed that the poll was conducted through 4,050 interviews with voters over 16 years old, between October 23 and 24. The margin of error for the total sample is two percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level. The other study that also shows a one-point difference Meanwhile, the pollster Quaest also released its survey on Saturday, October 25, indicating that in total votes Flavio Bolsonaro obtains 46% and Lula da Silva 45%, in the simulated runoff scenario. In this study, the difference between the candidates is also one point, and 8% corresponds to blank, null votes or respondents who said they will not vote; meanwhile, 1% are undecided. Both candidates in the last presidential debate NELSON ALMEIDA - AFP Data from Datafolha's October 22 poll Data from Quaest's October 21 poll Data from Instituto Gerp's October 21 poll This pollster was the only one that anticipated the first-round result in which Bolsonaro finished in first place. Unlike the other studies, this institute's interviews show a five-point difference.