Political and economic processes unfold based on verifiable facts and data, but also on ethereal perceptions and expectations. They are built from factual indicators, but take on dimension in the subjectivity of societies. They are constructed on those feelings that a country is doing well or badly, or that a government program can be considered successful or not. Argentina finds itself in tension between those two impulses, at a hinge moment that will define whether it is at an inflection point or a point of no return. The moment of rupture. Tuesday's political table meeting partly condensed these views. It was the first time in several weeks that all its members were present, after suspensions and absences. It had a special meaning. The actor who moved the pieces was once again Luis Caputo. The minister gave a somber account of the global diagnosis he heard in Thailand, where he took part in the IMF and World Bank summit. The Political Table met again this week with all its membersPresidencyEndless wars that impact fuel prices, social explosion in Europe, prospects of lower growth and higher inflation globally. A threatening picture that he used to argue that while Argentina is better prepared than on other occasions, it will suffer the effects of international instability. And from that reasoning, he put forward for the umpteenth time — but, according to witnesses, with more emphasis — that an urgent agreement with the governors was imperative. In private, the Economy Minister dropped the euphoric tone and shifted to a more realistic mode. He rubbed off on the President himself, who ended up admitting that "Argentina's indicators may not be evolving as positively as we initially expected." An unprecedented version from Javier Milei, but more in line with the week's data: a Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) that grew only 0.1% in August, leaving the country on the brink of recession; mass consumption that fell 1.2% in September, according to the consultancy Scentia; and a country risk that pierced the 700-point ceiling. At the top of the government there are important figures who are beginning to doubt the possibilities of economic reactivation without some kind of additional stimulus. Patricia Bullrich developed this publicly, but others do so privately. It is the "Ozempic group." In those conversations, alternative ideas proliferate that respect Milei's red lines, ranging from a more active policy of promoting credit, to a benefits regime for SMEs (although the RIMI, the Incentive Regime for Medium-Sized Investments, already exists but has yet to take effect), or a moderation of the reduction of utility subsidies. Federico Sturzenegger and Diego Santilli, a meeting of the Federal Investment Council (CFI)Tadeo BourbonIt is a merely intellectual debate because everything depends on Caputo taking up the issue and, above all, on it passing through Milei's filter, who is always backed by Federico Sturzenegger. In this sector they imagine a natural reactivation of the economy (in opposition to the "Ozempic group"), of which they already believe they see indicators, such as some recovery of wages against inflation, a decline in arrears, and a hint of reversal in the drop in tax revenue. The central fact is that the economic plan, which until now was a tablet written in stone, is at the center of an undeniable internal discussion. But the government is in a bind, because the program does not allow flexibility without adulterating its nature. This is the program Milei wants to embody. That rigidity was a virtue for achieving the initial macroeconomic objectives, but there are those who think it has become a problem for broad sectors of the real economy. It is undeniable that the impact of the libertarian model this year was far greater than in the previous two. The argument Milei made about people who cannot make ends meet was a grotesque representation of this tension. Kyriakos Pierrakakis, Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Kristalina Georgieva, Olayemi Cardoso and Luis Caputo, at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in BangkokIn Caputo's view, the only way to provide certainty is through an agreement with the governors, and that message will only be achieved through the suspension of the PASO primaries. The issue of the primaries is no longer just an electoral matter; it is a test of governability. It represents the libertarian administration's capacity to build majorities for an emblematic project. That is why this week the issue was discussed more harshly. Karina Milei, accompanied by the Menems, repeats that she agrees with making a pact with the governors, but anticipates that electoral agreements must be postponed until next year. That is, let the PASO be voted on now, and afterwards assess the strategy case by case in each province. Diego Santilli claims he has the votes in the Senate, but they fail to materialize. Perhaps the timid political generosity of Karina weighs on him, along with the economic restrictions Caputo imposes on him. Bullrich has already warned that she can do nothing until there is an arrangement with the provincial leaders. Patricia Bullrich and Javier Milei, at the Olivos estateAt the Casa Rosada they watch the senator with distrust over her increasingly defiant moves, but they understand there is an implicit pact with Milei for her to play her game. She constantly sends messages to her voters, whom she senses identify with the general direction but not with the current rigidity. For now, there is a dynamic of complementarity: she collects what escapes Milei. But in her head the idea of replacement is not ruled out: a declining Milei who cannot run for reelection, clearing the path for her. "What cannot happen to us is that we go backwards, as happened to us with Macri. If there is no reelection, something must be done," argue those close to Bullrich. "Mileism without Milei," the formula the President himself ruled out this week. Bullrich's provocations create a lot of noise within the government; but Milei issued the order not to confront. He wants to keep her inside. With a little help from his friendsDoubts about the economic moment were also part of the conversations that US Undersecretary of State Christopher Landau and the head of Western Hemisphere affairs, Juan Carlos Segura, held during their visit to Buenos Aires this week. In one of those talks, the difficulties of the transition Argentina is going through were discussed in depth. There they again spoke of the Trump administration's willingness to advise the IMF to grant a waiver on next year's fiscal targets, as a way of helping Milei electorally. At the State Department itself they admit they are analyzing with the Treasury various options of direct aid should it be necessary, as last year. Press conference by Christopher Landau, US Undersecretary of State, and Pablo Quirino, Argentine foreign minister. San Martín PalaceEnrique García MedinaEven in the hallways outside the meetings held by both officials, a rumor circulated, as relevant as it was difficult to verify: that the Treasury Department and the IMF would be working on a package to guarantee financing for all of 2027, so that the government can preserve its reserves to face probable currency turbulence. Too good to be true, Caputo must think. But the visit of Landau and Segura had a backdrop that ran through several of the conversations: the disagreement over the Sovereignty Bill. The US government asked that the initiative, which includes a chapter of sanctions for companies involved in oil exploitation in the waters of the Malvinas, be temporarily halted until the White House lawyers evaluated it. Peter Lamelas was one of those who conveyed the message. María Ibarzabal, testifying before a committee in the Chamber of Deputies on the Malvinas BillRicardo PristuplukThe request was surprising because the companies that had expressed their concerns had opened a dialogue with the government and with Congress to introduce adjustments that would allow the bill to advance in committee next week. The central ideas revolved around adopting less lax wording when establishing the chain of possible responsible parties, and incorporating an exit clause, so that firms involved in the work at Sea Lion could opt to operate in Vaca Muerta before being sanctioned. The project finds the ruling party very dispersed. Being an initiative devised by Santiago Caputo and codified by the legal and technical secretary, María Ibarzabal, it does not enjoy the enthusiasm of Martín Menem, the vote wrangler in the Chamber of Deputies. Several of the actors involved perceived this friction. Nor is Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno very happy to receive the complaint from the United States over a proposal in which he took no part. In fact, no one from the Foreign Ministry was present the day the bill was presented in Congress; only Ibarzabal attended on behalf of the government. But there is a fact to bear in mind: the issue has also split Peronism, where one sector favors outright rejection, and another prefers not to leave the flag to LLA and proposes to outdo it with an even harsher set of measures. Martín Menem during the last session of the Chamber of DeputiesFabián MarelliWhile these debates unfold, the British prime minister, Andy Burnham, is hyperactive on the issue. He raised the matter with Trump again on Friday, who cooled his gestures toward Argentina. In addition, the premier yesterday worked the Chile axis, in a conversation with President José Antonio Kast, where he spoke of "strengthening military capabilities." The Malvinization of foreign policy was also felt this week in what was originally conceived as Argentina Week in London and ended up reduced to a scorched Argentina Day. Luis Caputo was promoting it as a way to attract investment in his reactivation efforts, but the Foreign Ministry put a chill on it because it clashed with the new doctrine that emerged after Milei's nationwide address. Conclusion: only the Energy Secretary, Luis Lucero, who answers to the Economy Minister, traveled. Energy Secretary Luis Lucero (center), during Argentina Day in LondonAll the time, lines of crisscrossing and overlapping interests appear in the government — over the economic plan, over the agreement with the governors, over the Sovereignty Bill, over the relationship with the United States and Great Britain. This disorder saps the effectiveness of the administration's progress. But the flare-up over the Malvinas was barely a whisper compared to the uproar Milei caused with Spain. His passage through Madrid was so stormy that, according to what circulated in diplomatic corridors, Pedro Sánchez is considering summoning his ambassador in Argentina, Joaquín María de Arístegui, for consultations, as he did in 2024 with his predecessor, María Jesús Alonso. So far, a intervention by Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares is said to have held him back. President Javier Milei met with the governor of the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso. PresidenciaBeyond the astonishment caused by the Milei whirlwind in the Spanish campaign, and Sánchez's exploitation of his irascibility, there remained a residue of unease over the presidential behavior. Those in his circle who for some time had tried to rationally explain his attitudes no longer want to translate them. At times they stopped understanding him. He has become an unpredictable player even to them. Fewer and fewer have access to the Milei willing to engage in frank dialogue that he used to allow. Today he is a man with scars. His latest aggressions against the press certify it. Messages from ParisThe doubts that the economic performance cast over Milei's electoral chances excited a Peronism that began to stretch itself out. The novelty of recent days was the public reactivation of Sergio Massa, who until now had been operating behind the scenes. He let it be known that he had met with Cristina Kirchner, and he met with university rectors and union leaders. He dropped suggestive phrases, as if nobody knew he wants to be a candidate again. He seemed to acknowledge it when he admitted several times that he carries "a problem with society." One need only look at his image in the polls to prove him right. The essential reason Massa decided to step onto the stage is that he perceived Axel Kicillof as too comfortable a sole candidate. That interpretation is what he sought to dislodge. He had Cristina's wink for that, but without there having been a pact. Both share a tactical objective, even though the former president continues searching for the ideal candidate. Massa met with 15 university rectorsFRP PressMassa abandoned his traditional position as "unity pledge" to stand in a clearer place. The natural consequence was that Juan Grabois moved out of the Cristinista quadrant and aligned himself with Kicillof. "We began to understand that the candidate best positioned to beat Milei is Axel," explain those close to the deputy. Not far from Massa, Senator Gerardo Zamora was also activated, whom some governors encourage to compete. And a few seats away, the San Juan native Sergio Uñac also stirs. None of this was discussed at the new summit held Thursday at the Casa de La Pampa. "There we all entered wearing masks," ironizes one of those present. The central point of the meeting was to consolidate the rejection of the suspension of the PASO, to shield it against possible defections. They distrust some governors and senators friendly with the ruling party, and admit that the passage of the law does not depend on them. The key is held by PRO: if its legislators accept the change, the Radicals and allied Peronists wait behind them. The protest demonstration yesterday in the streets of Parisafp - AFPWhile the government debates the effectiveness of its economic plan, and while Peronism becomes mired in the discussion over its leadership without a deep doctrinal debate, it is worth paying attention to the signals coming from Europe. In the protests that swept through several cities, but especially Paris, local triggers emerged, though with global implications. How sustainable is the Welfare State with a fiscal deficit of 5.4% of GDP like France's? How competitive is the European economy against the Chinese advance? How developed is its technology compared to Silicon Valley and Shenzhen? To what extent is it a socioeconomic problem or a consequence of immigration? Is it a confrontation between Western and Islamic values?But for Argentina there are two special messages. First, that all the mobilizations in Europe began with the leading role of the under-25s, over educational, labor or housing issues. A very strong generational crisis emerges there, a crisis of the future, of expectations. And second, they are calls without leadership or articulated representation, a chaotic magma that has a meeting point on social media. In the yellow vests revolt of 2018, the protest leaders asked to be received by Emmanuel Macron to present their demands; today's protesters are not even interested in that interlocution. There is no institutional expectation; only smashing shops serves to express that deep feeling of anger and disenchantment. Jorge Ossona, historian and specialist in Greater Buenos AiresSantiago Cichero/AFVJorge Ossona, historian and specialist in the Buenos Aires suburbs, speaks of how "Europe has become conurbanized" and "lives with a lumpenized French May." In that description he finds analogies with the territorial logics of Buenos Aires, where "more and more there is a naturalization of the dynamics of survival and marginality, due to the decomposition of the old industrial society." As the 25th anniversary of Argentina's 2001 crisis approaches, these are indicators to bear in mind for understanding how much the social foundations have changed so far this century.