In Lula's government, they believe Milei might not recognize a potential PT victory

BRASILIA.- On the eve of the runoff election in Brazil, the Planalto Palace is working under the assumption that Javier Milei's government might not recognize a potential victory by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. That reading solidified after the Argentine president hinted this week that the Workers' Party (PT) could "steal the election." "Milei is giving the impression of being a president who will not recognize the election if the one he wants doesn't win," said a source from the Planalto Palace with access to the presidential office. The Brazilian government also calculates that the damage to the bilateral relationship will be difficult to repair quickly once the electoral process is over, if Lula is reelected. Lula's comeback remains a difficult scenario: senator and opposition candidate Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round on October 4 by nearly two points, about 2.2 million votes. But in the ruling party's campaign, they speak of a boost heading into the runoff, especially in the last two weeks, which leaves open the expectation of an upset next Sunday. Extreme coldness in the relationship between presidents Javier Milei and Lula da Silva — Ricardo Stuckert/ Brazilian Presidency - AFP The latest Datafolha poll, published yesterday, shows Flávio with 47% and Lula with 46%, and for the first time in two months the government's approval rating (49%) surpasses disapproval (48%), though within the margin of error. The relationship between Argentina and Brazil was already deteriorated, but a new escalation worsened it this week. On Tuesday, Milei shared on X a fragment of an interview in which Lula spoke about the role of women at home to defend the reduction of the workweek. The Argentine president accused Lula of being a "male chauvinist progressive." And he added: "I hope his last dirty campaign trick doesn't include stealing the election... thieving leftist." The Brazilian Foreign Ministry, led by Mauro Vieira, responded that same afternoon that the insults, directed "this time at the Judiciary and the electronic voting system," were "a new and unacceptable attempt at external interference in the Brazilian democratic process." It also accused the Argentine leader of repeating "lies spread by those who lost the elections and staged the failed military coup four years ago." President Lula da Silva and Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira — Anadolu - Anadolu It is not the first time Milei has targeted the Brazilian judiciary. In July, at the Liberal Party (PL) convention that proclaimed Flávio Bolsonaro, Milei called judge Alexandre de Moraes a "bald piece of trash" — the judge was the rapporteur of the case that sentenced Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years and three months in prison for attempted coup — after the magistrate prevented him from visiting his "friend." That speech, followed by repeated insults in the days that followed, led to a downgrade of relations: Brasilia recalled its ambassador for consultations, and since August neither country has had an ambassador in the other's capital. In Lula's circle, they likewise downplay whatever Milei may say or do, considering him a figure with "unbalanced" positions and "little credibility" in Brazil. So far, they say, his statements do not change the government's concerns ahead of Sunday or the institutional course after the election. The Itamaraty statement, official sources explain, required almost no internal discussion, since the attack was aimed not only at Lula but at the integrity of the electoral process. "He [Milei] is the one who decided to break the minimum of diplomatic protocol. He came to the country to attack institutions and then says that, if Lula wins, it will be a theft," they explained at the Planalto. "The normalization of the relationship will depend essentially on the Argentine Executive. But if (Milei) keeps behaving like a child, there will be no way to pretend everything is fine." Javier Milei, in July, at the launch of Flavio Bolsonaro's presidential candidacy — ap - AP The former president Bolsonaro's eldest son made his rapport with Milei an asset of his campaign at various points. After meeting with him in Buenos Aires this year, he promised that "if there was a chainsaw in Argentina, in Brazil there will be a scissor cut in taxes, bureaucracy, and corruption." In mid-September, at a business forum in São Paulo, his campaign's economic coordinator, Daniella Marques, announced that the program would be inspired "by what the Milei government has done" and described the libertarian as "an excellent example" in restoring investment capacity and reducing bureaucracy and taxes. The phrase has since become a talking point for the PT. In electoral strategy, the PT found in Milei an unwitting ally. For the ruling party, presenting Argentina as a horizon for Brazil was a own goal for Flávio's campaign, because Argentina's "recession and poverty rates" play against the PL candidate. Qualitative polls handled by the ruling party indicated that association with a model of drastic cuts in social spending does not suit him, which is why Bolsonarism stopped invoking it so frequently. "The more comrade Milei wants to say nonsense, the more he helps us get rid of those people," said a palace adviser ironically. In last Sunday's debate, Lula reproached Flávio for the social cost of the Argentine adjustment and asked him whether his model was still Milei's. This Friday, the president of Brazil posted on X a video recorded in front of the Argentine Congress, in which congressman Paulo Pimenta interviews Santiago Tangir, an adviser to the government of the province of Buenos Aires. In the video, Tangir claims that 65% of Milei's cuts fell on pensions and social spending. The piece also shows Milei alongside Flávio with a giant pair of scissors at the July convention. "The same chainsaw that went through over there now threatens to pass through Brazil, with Flávio Bolsonaro's scissors," Lula wrote. "We already know the chaos Argentina has been, with poverty, hunger, and rising inequality," said this week Senator Camilo Santana, spokesman for Lula's runoff campaign, who pointed to Milei as Bolsonaro's "great ally." "And we are not going to allow Brazil to become an Argentina." By Marcelo Silva de Sousa Type of work: Original News