The Dominican economy grows 5.6% in September and the Central Bank forecasts 4.5% annually

The construction sector led the dynamism of economic activity with an increase of 8.2% between January and September. /(Illustrative Image Infobae)The Dominican economy maintained an expansion, measured by the monthly indicator of economic activity (IMAE), of 5.6% year-on-year in September, while the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) projects growth of close to 4.5% for the end of the year, according to Acento. The projection coexists with inflation still above the target and with a monetary policy aimed at containing further price increases. The labor market recorded 5,271,005 employed persons during the second quarter of 2026, 2.9% more than a year earlier. The change is equivalent to about 147,000 additional jobs in twelve months. Monetary poverty fell to 13.75% between April and June of 2026, 2.9 percentage points less than in the same period of 2025. The estimate by the Interinstitutional Technical Committee for the Measurement of Monetary Poverty was based on data from the Continuous National Labor Force Survey. Construction led sectoral growth in the first nine months of the year, with an increase of 8.2%. It was followed by mining and quarrying, with 5.2%; local manufacturing, with 3.4%; and free zones, with 2.8%. Service activities grew as a whole by 4.6%. Financial services advanced 7.8%, hotels, bars and restaurants increased 5.6%, and other services registered an expansion of 5.4%. The IMAE recorded a year-on-year expansion of 5.6% in September and the Central Bank projects economic growth of 4.5% for the end of this year. /(EFE/Orlando Barría) Year-on-year inflation stood at 5.12% in September, after having reached a peak of 5.67% in June. Governor Valdez Albizu attributed the increase mainly to the pressures generated by the international energy shock. Core inflation, which more accurately reflects monetary conditions, was 4.61% in September and remained within the target range of 4.0% ± 1.0%. Medium-term inflation expectations remained around 4.0%. The Central Bank expects the general index to return to the target range in the last quarter of 2026, provided that international risks and the effects of weather on agricultural production remain under control, according to Acento. In September, the Monetary Board raised the monetary policy rate by 25 basis points, leaving it at 5.50%, in order to preserve expectations and avoid second-round effects on prices. The Dominican economy would generate around US$50.7 billion in foreign currency by the end of 2026. The forecast includes US$12.6 billion in remittances, more than US$17.2 billion in exports, close to US$12.2 billion in tourism revenue and about US$5.3 billion in foreign direct investment. Foreign direct investment would cover approximately four times the current account deficit of the balance of payments, estimated at 1% of Gross Domestic Product. Between January and September, these inflows totaled close to US$4.5 billion and were concentrated mainly in energy, tourism and real estate. Total exports reached about US$13.2 billion during the first nine months, with contributions of more than US$6.5 billion each from free zones and national exports. Tourism revenue reached approximately US$9.7 billion and remittances exceeded US$9.4 billion. The Dominican economy projects generating more than 50.7 billion dollars in foreign currency by the end of 2026 from exports, tourism and remittances. /(Illustrative Image Infobae)These flows contributed to the relative stability of the exchange rate, according to Valdez Albizu. At the end of September, the Dominican peso had accumulated an appreciation of 5.4%. International reserves exceeded US$15.2 billion at the end of September, equivalent to around 10.5% of Gross Domestic Product and 5.4 months of imports. The level was above the thresholds recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Private credit in domestic currency grew about 7.4% year-on-year at the end of August, driven by financing destined for construction, manufacturing and commerce. The governor noted that interest rates remained relatively stable. The assets of the financial system amounted to RD$4.6 trillion in September 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. The sector's equity increased 14.4%. Return on equity stood at 23.1% and return on assets at 2.9%. The delinquency rate fell to 1.5%, compared with the 1.9% recorded in September 2025. Regulatory solvency reached 18.9% in May, above the required minimum of 10%, according to figures published by the Superintendence of Banks.