Grossi improved, but the race for the UN remains stalled with an open ending

WASHINGTON — In a key day in the Security Council process to define the succession of António Guterres as UN secretary-general, the race was left open after a vote in which the three leading candidates, among them Argentine diplomat Rafael Grossi, each received two vetoes from the five permanent members. According to leaks from the secret vote held this afternoon at UN headquarters in New York, former Costa Rican vice president Rebeca Grynspan led the indicative vote by a narrow margin, with nine supports and five rejections, followed by Grossi and former Guyanese foreign minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, each with eight endorsements and six votes against. All also received one "no opinion." Grossi improved on his performance in the previous vote, in which he had received six endorsements and seven rejections, plus two "no opinions," and remains expectant in the race to succeed Guterres. Two of his supports came from members with veto power (the United States, China, Russia, France and Britain, the so-called P5), according to the leaks. "Grossi improved. He got his best result. His candidacy is solid, strong," those close to the Argentine diplomat assessed, as LA NACION learned. In the "no supports" column, the three main aspirants each received two rejections from the P5. In this way, the race to lead the UN remains deadlocked with an open ending, and experts even point out that new aspirants could soon join. Former Costa Rican vice president Rebeca Grynspan and Argentine diplomat Rafael Grossi, candidates for UN secretary-general. Until now, the five previous rounds had been conducted with identical ballots from the 15 Council members, which allowed measuring the general level of support and rejection for the candidates, but without revealing whether the negative votes came from any of the five P5 members. Today the representatives of the United States, China, Russia, Britain and France used red (anonymous) ballots, while those of the ten non-permanent members used white ones. To win the final round, a candidate needs to gather at least nine votes in the Council and avoid a veto from any P5 member. After that endorsement, the 193 member states of the General Assembly usually ratify the recommended aspirant. Guterres's term ends on December 31, and the decision should come before that date, though no scenario is ruled out given the evident lack of consensus in the Security Council after the first five indicative rounds. Experts even point out that after the results of this sixth round became known, new aspirants could join the race. UN diplomats said several high-level figures, including former and current foreign ministers as well as leaders of national stature, are seriously considering entering the contest. One of the names mentioned was that of Emirati diplomat Lana Zaki Nusseibeh. Further behind in today's vote were former Senegalese president Macky Sall (5-10-0, with three vetoes), Ugandan politician Olara Otunnu (4-10-1, with three vetoes), and Ecuadorian diplomats María Fernanda Espinosa (3-9-3, with three vetoes) and Ivonne Baki (1-14-0, with five vetoes). After the third round, former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet had decided not to continue with her candidacy. Grynspan's candidacy, as secretary-general of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, would face resistance from the United States for having China's backing. In fact, according to a diplomat cited on condition of anonymity by the specialized site PassBlue, the two vetoes she received this afternoon came from Washington and London. With a slight edge over Grossi, Grynspan and Rodrigues-Birkett each had three supports from P5 members, compared to two for the Argentine candidate. The leaks reveal that the "no opinion" registered for the IAEA director general came from a member with veto power. After this afternoon's secret vote, the US ambassador to the UN, Michael Waltz, told reporters that the Council would prefer the process be concluded this year, before Guterres's term ends. "We have always said that we simply need the best [candidate]. We understand there is a desire for regional rotation. Of course, if the best were a woman, we would look favorably on that. But really, we just need the best candidate," Waltz said. Meanwhile, Grossi's candidacy, which has the endorsement of the Donald Trump administration, has faced various obstacles, with public criticism from the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin over his role at the head of the IAEA amid the war with Ukraine, and indications that Xi Jinping's Chinese regime would lean toward backing Grynspan. In that sense, only an agreement between both powers and the US government could unblock his situation. Grossi has promoted his campaign with calls for a profound reform of the UN so that it regains its prominence on the international stage. Meanwhile, the growing tension between Argentina and the United Kingdom over their dispute regarding the sovereignty of the Malvinas Islands could also be a potential obstacle for Grossi's candidacy, though the Argentine aspirant — given his profile as a career diplomat — has expressed confidence that London (a P5 member) would not object to his candidacy over this issue. Geopolitical tensions among P5 members over various global issues, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, the conflict in the Middle East and the Iranian nuclear plan, have complicated the election process to find Guterres's successor, making this one of the most uncertain races in the 81-year history of the multilateral organization. In an interview with Reuters published Thursday, Grynspan said that "the UN has become too risk-averse" and that it must cut jobs, curb bureaucracy and prevent its agencies from duplicating functions, arguing that mere cost reduction would not be enough to revitalize an institution struggling with resource scarcity and the loss of global political influence. According to the geographic tradition of alternation between continents, the post would fall to one of the candidates from Latin America after 36 years, following the term of Peruvian Javier Pérez de Cuéllar (1982-1991), while various sectors — and also Council members — are pressing for, for the first time, a woman to assume the role of UN secretary-general. In that sense, in a conversation this week with the newspaper El País, Rodrigues-Birkett said that "not choosing a woman would send a very negative message to the world." In addition to the P5, the Council is composed of ten non-permanent members: Bahrain, Colombia, Denmark, Latvia, Liberia, Pakistan, Panama, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia and Greece, which currently holds the rotating presidency. In recent hours, Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino had made public that his country's vote in the Council this afternoon would go to Grossi, "out of gratitude and solidarity." "Panama's vote is committed to Grossi and Argentina in this highest world representation," Mulino emphasized, explaining that the endorsement is in recognition of the IAEA director general's support for the launch of a new Oncology and Nuclear Medicine Center in the Central American country. By Guillermo Idiart