Despite the complicated geopolitical scenario worldwide and its impact on foreign trade, exports from Latin American economies would continue to expand in 2026, albeit with uneven behavior across subregions and countries. According to the annual report "Perspectives on International Trade in Latin America and the Caribbean 2026," prepared by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the organization projects a 20% increase in the value of the region's goods exports in 2026, the largest since the post-pandemic rebound of 2021. This result would be driven by an 11% rise in export prices and a 7% increase in export volumes, which would grow for the sixth consecutive year. In line with the favorable projections for the region as a whole, 28 of the 33 countries that make it up are projected to register increases in the value of their goods exports in 2026, reaching double digits in 16 of them. Likewise, it warns that performance would be uneven across subregions: South America would benefit from the commodity price cycle, while Mexico would stand out for the dynamism of its manufacturing exports. Rise in mineral prices favors Chile Thus, the regional ranking would remain unchanged from 2025, led by Mexico with goods shipments totaling US$835,325 million in 2026, followed by Brazil with US$405,481 million and Chile with US$125,226 million. Copper exports. ©Claudio Pérez Meanwhile, if the increase in exports compared to 2025 is taken as a reference, Chile shares tenth place with Guatemala and Honduras, with an estimated 13% expansion in its goods shipments. In its report, ECLAC forecasts that the value of Chilean exports will grow 22% year-on-year in 2026, linked mainly to the higher value of minerals, while volume would fall by 7%. The document also states that "South America appears as the main beneficiary of the current price cycle, with projected export growth of 17%, which would be due to an increase in export prices (15%), while volumes would grow by 2%." It adds that this composition reflects the subregion's high specialization in natural resources and commodities, whose prices have experienced widespread increases. Check the table with the countries that will have the largest goods exports in 2026. Country Exports Mexico US$835,325 million Brazil US$405,481 million Chile US$125,226 million Peru US$122,421 million Argentina US$103,390 million Colombia US$59,119 million Ecuador US$43,428 million Venezuela US$29,146 million Costa Rica 25,106 Guyana 24,603 Strait of Magellan At the press conference following the presentation of the report, ECLAC's executive secretary, José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, referred to the impact of transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Panama Canal on traffic through the Strait of Magellan. In this regard, he stated that "the Panama Canal benefited from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the restrictions that existed there, because there was an initial diversion toward Panama. Well, it still continues, but in the period, for example, to give a figure, from January to August 2026, total ship traffic increased by 5.8% compared to the same period in 2025. It went from 9,013 ships to 9,532 ships. And cargo volume increased by 17.6% and toll revenues by 8.4%." However, he warned that a decline in Panama Canal activity is expected for several reasons, including restrictions on the number of transits, due to vessel draft and also, above all, due to the drought linked to the El Niño phenomenon. Therefore, he maintained that "the Strait of Magellan already showed significant growth in its traffic from August to September 2026 due to the restrictions I just mentioned of the Panama Canal, due to the effects of the drought, and tensions in the Middle East will also continue. Strait of Magellan In this regard, he stated that "one would expect that some trade routes departing from South America and West Africa bound for Asia would use the Strait of Magellan more as an alternative route." Risks Asked about the possible risks that could affect the region's foreign trade, José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs pointed out that the first is related to lower international demand resulting from greater increases in energy prices. "We have already been seeing this and it is there as a threat that the situation could worsen. If there is an escalation of conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, all of this could have an impact on the growth rates of the world economy. This increase in energy prices, however, especially oil, has mixed effects." He specified that, as the organization has previously noted, an increase in energy prices has negative effects on transportation, production and logistics costs, especially in net importing countries, which are Chile, Peru, Central America and part of the Caribbean economies. But he added that it also has positive effects, thinking exclusively in terms of oil or energy, on the level of export revenues in countries that are net exporters, such as Ecuador, Colombia, Brazil and Mexico. He added that another risk is the intensification of extreme weather events, for example, the effects of the El Niño phenomenon, which are already occurring. Mudslide in Las Condes products of heavy rainfall. "As we know and have documented, these weather events, and El Niño in particular, have very significant and very negative effects on trade, productivity, agriculture, livestock, fishing; it is a shock that also has economic shocks, that is, it translates very strongly into the economic issue," he said. In this regard, he clarified that the organization's projections for 2026 already incorporate some of its possible effects, but he warned that there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what may happen in the coming months. As for the impact of the tariff restrictions imposed by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, he stated that the region's trade flows in 2026 already reflect that effect, but he indicated that the report shows an important export drive in the region in the first half of the year, with shipments growing by two or three digits toward India, China, ASEAN, and Korea. "Today more than ever, diversification of trading partners is an imperative, as we have been saying and as we have seen countries doing," he said. He stated that the unilateral actions of the United States have created strong incentives for the rest of the world to seek to diversify trade and investment alliances, and that much proactivity is seen in this regard, which will surely continue to increase.
Translated from es by z-ai/glm-5.3-flash