Key vote at the UN: for the first time, vetoes of secretary-general candidates will be made known

WASHINGTON. — The process being carried out by the Security Council to define the succession of António Guterres as UN secretary-general, which has Argentine diplomat Rafael Grossi as one of the leading contenders, will face a key moment this afternoon in the organization's sixth straw poll: for the first time, colored ballots will be used, which will reveal which candidates have rejections from the five powers with veto rights. In the last round held by the 15 members of the Council — including the so-called P5, made up of the United States, China, Russia, Great Britain and France, which hold veto rights — Grossi came in second place behind former Costa Rican vice president Rebeca Grynspan, who, although she led the preferences, suffered a decline that left the race open to lead the United Nations starting January 1. Former Costa Rican vice president Rebeca Grynspan and Argentine diplomat Rafael Grossi, candidates for UN secretary-general. Until now, the five previous rounds were conducted with identical ballots from the 15 Council members, which allowed measuring the general level of support and rejection of the candidates, but without revealing whether the negative votes came from any of the five permanent members (P5). This afternoon at the UN headquarters in New York, around 3 pm (local time, 4 pm in Argentina), the representatives of the United States, China, Russia, Great Britain and France will use red ballots (anonymous), while those of the ten non-permanent members will use white ones. Argentine diplomat Rafael Grossi, candidate for UN secretary-general. MICHAEL M. SANTIAGO - GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA Open race To win the final round, a candidate needs to gather at least nine votes in the Council and avoid the veto of any P5 member. After that backing, the 193 member states of the General Assembly usually ratify the recommended candidate. Guterres's term ends on December 31, and the decision should come before that date, although no scenario is ruled out given the evident lack of consensus in the Security Council after the first five straw polls. Experts do not even rule out that once the results of this afternoon's vote are known, new contenders may join the race. In the last secret vote held on October 7, Grynspan lost one "encouragement" (dropping to nine) and gained three rejections (rising to six), while Grossi lost two "encouragements" (dropping to six) and kept the seven rejections from the previous round (he also had two "no opinion"), a result that placed him second in the preferences. The other candidates — trailing in the race — are former Senegalese president Macky Sall, Ugandan politician Olara Otunnu, and the Ecuadorian diplomats María Fernanda Espinosa and Ivonne Baki. After the third round, former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet had decided not to continue with her candidacy. Close to the Argentine candidate, it was assessed as a "very good" vote that yielded "very positive signals" for Grossi because the two candidates who were ahead of him (Grynspan and former Guyanese foreign minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett) suffered a marked decline. Former Guyanese foreign minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett. In any case, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose candidacy was promoted by the government of Javier Milei, still maintained a high number of rejections, which show the difficulties of his bid. Support and resistance Grynspan's candidacy, who is secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, would face resistance from the United States for having China's backing. Meanwhile, Grossi's candidacy, which has the endorsement of the Donald Trump administration, has faced various obstacles, with public criticism from the government of Russian president Vladimir Putin over his role at the head of the IAEA in the context of the war with Ukraine, and indications that Xi Jinping's Chinese regime would lean toward backing Grynspan. Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). GENYA SAVILOV - AFP In that sense, only an agreement between both powers and the US government could unblock his situation. Grossi has promoted his campaign with calls for a profound reform of the UN so that it regains its prominence on the international stage. Meanwhile, the growing tension between Argentina and the United Kingdom over the dispute they maintain over the sovereignty of the Malvinas Islands could also be a potential obstacle for Grossi's candidacy, although the Argentine candidate — given his profile as a career diplomat — has expressed confidence that London (a P5 member) would not object to his candidacy over this issue. The geopolitical tensions among P5 members on various global issues, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East and the Iranian nuclear plan, have complicated the election process to find Guterres's successor, and have made this one of the most uncertain races in the 81-year history of the multilateral organization. In an interview with the Reuters agency published on Thursday, Grynspan noted that "the UN has become too risk-averse" and that it must cut jobs, curb bureaucracy and prevent its agencies from duplicating functions, arguing that mere cost reduction would not be enough to revitalize an institution struggling with resource scarcity and the loss of global political influence. According to the geographic tradition of alternation between continents, the post would fall to one of the candidates from Latin America after 36 years, following the term of Peruvian Javier Pérez de Cuéllar (1982-1991), while there are various sectors — and also Council members — pushing for, for the first time, a woman to assume the post of UN secretary-general. In that sense, in a conversation this week with the newspaper El País, Rodrigues-Birkett said that "not choosing a woman would be a very negative message for the world." In addition to the P5, the Council is made up of ten non-permanent members: Bahrain, Colombia, Denmark, Latvia, Liberia, Pakistan, Panama, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia and Greece, which currently holds the rotating presidency. By Guillermo Idiart