The National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (Inameh) reported that this Friday, October 16, partly cloudy to clear sky conditions will be recorded during the morning across much of the territory, with possible localized rains or showers, and an increase in cloudiness with rainfall of varying intensity during the afternoon and night.
According to the official report, in the early hours of the day, cloudy areas associated with rains or showers could occur, mainly in Bolívar, Amazonas, eastern La Guaira, southeastern Falcón, northern Yaracuy, southern Guárico, Trujillo, and sectors of Zulia. For the afternoon and night, an increase in cloud cover is expected with rains of varying intensity in Monagas, Sucre, southern Bolívar, Amazonas, Yaracuy, eastern Falcón, the Central and Western Plains, the Andes, and Zulia, without ruling out rainfall in the central-north coastal region.
In Greater Caracas (Capital District, Miranda, and La Guaira), partly cloudy skies are forecast, with early drizzles in the eastern mountainous areas and isolated rains at the end of the day. Temperatures will range from a minimum of 17 °C to maximums of up to 33 °C in the coastal strip. The highest values of the day will be concentrated in the Guayana Esequiba (up to 39 °C) and in Zulia and Lara (around 38 °C), while in the mountainous areas of Mérida, minimums close to 5 °C are expected.
These conditions are associated with the activity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the monsoon trough west of the country.
Tropical waves under watch
Inameh maintains surveillance over tropical waves. Wave number 56 entered through the Guayana Esequiba between October 13 and 14. Tropical wave No. 57 is moving over the Atlantic and is estimated to arrive in Venezuelan territory between Saturday the 17th and Sunday the 18th of October, which could reinforce cloudiness and rains during the weekend, especially in the east, south, center, and west of the country.
El Niño strengthens
In parallel, Inameh confirmed the strengthening of El Niño conditions in the second half of 2026. According to data from the International Research Center on El Niño (CIIFEN), for the August-October quarter, warm conditions are forecast with a 100% probability, extending until early 2027. The models indicate, with an 81% probability, a very strong intensity peak between October and December.
Specialists from the National Observatory of the Climate Crisis pointed out that the impact on rainfall in Venezuela points to a slight to moderate decrease, without reaching an extreme drought. For example, areas that typically record around 150 mm could drop to ranges of 110-120 mm. The direct effects are usually felt with a lag of three to five months, and the conditions would persist for the rest of 2026 and the first two months of 2027.
Given the country's high dependence on hydroelectric generation, the authorities recommended maintaining constant monitoring of the river basins and reservoirs, as well as applying preventive strategies in the management of water resources.
Inameh reiterated to the population the importance of following official reports through its channels and taking precautions against possible intense rains, especially in areas vulnerable to flooding or landslides during the passage of tropical wave 57 this weekend.