Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, shifted 11 more House seats toward Democrats this week, many in red states as the midterms inch closer.
Cook has moved dozens of House seats away from Republicans in recent weeks as the political environment improves for Democrats, driven by President Trump’s unpopularity in the polls and growing disapproval of the Iran war.
Republican Reps. Brad Finstad (Minn.), Mike Turner (Ohio) and Mike Carey (Ohio) saw their districts shift from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” Two open seats — New York’s 21st Congressional District and South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District — shifted in a similar manner.
GOP Reps. Derek Schmidt (Kan.) and Mike Flood (Neb.) saw their districts move from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican,” as well as an open seat held by the GOP, Florida’s 16th district, according to the Cook report.
Montana’s open 1st Congressional District, which Trump carried by 12 points in 2024, moved from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”
For the Democrats, incumbent Reps. Greg Landsman (Ohio) and Jared Moskowitz (Fla.) saw their districts move further left. Republicans redrew both Landsman and Moskowitz’s districts ahead of the midterms and hoped the new map would make the seats easier to flip.
Unlike in the 2018 midterms, when many of the Democratic gains were in areas former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won in 2016, the party needs to focus on Trump-won seats to win a sizable House majority this year.
Many of the districts that Democrats are now targeting are in places the president carried by double digits in 2024.
Cook’s U. S. House editor Erin Covey noted in her analysis that tracking spending in key districts gives insight to how both parties view which seats make up the midterm battlefield.
“These races are now seeing heavy outside investment from House Majority PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc.’s super PACs, a sign that both sides view these contests as competitive,” Covey wrote.
The editor added that Democrats appear to be competitive in seats that voted for former President Obama but swung to Trump in 2024 — and have not been particularly close in other contests.
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