MADRID.- Pedro Sánchez chose the date of Spain's upcoming elections and, for now, managed to impose an agenda favorable to his narrative with the outbreak of the housing crisis. The death of Maricarmen Abascal, moreover, will be a symbol that socialism will use throughout the entire electoral campaign to win votes. But despite the tailwind, the chances of Sánchez being reelected are slim. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the Popular Party, comfortably leads all the polls and is on track to become Spain's next prime minister. It will be a short campaign: six weeks remain until election day. "We will see agitation and internal mobilization. Both Sánchez and Feijóo will try to rally their own supporters rather than convince the undecided. There is no time for anything else," says Gabriela Ortega Jarrín, PhD in Communication from the Complutense University of Madrid. And she emphasizes that, in line with this, the PP's campaign slogan appears "at last," which is precisely a call to its voters, who were anxiously awaiting the elections to remove Sánchez from La Moncloa. Pedro Sánchez is playing his last chances in his attempt to stay in government THOMAS COEX - AFP The Socialist Party (PSOE) arrives weakened after eight years in government, which included a dozen corruption cases and other crises, such as the massive blackout, the train crash in Andalusia, and migration conflicts, such as the latest mass influx in Ceuta. "The socialists will want to talk about rents and the right will want to discuss illegal immigration and corruption. Each will try to drag water to their own puddle," anticipates César Calderón, director of the consultancy Red Lines. "To all the factors we already know, we must add the street. The unions have called a general strike for November 11, just days before the start of the campaign. Added to that is the encampment at the Puerta del Sol. But on the other side is the judicial calendar: the Zapatero case and the possible irregular financing of the PSOE, among other cases. It will be a trench-warfare campaign. Little persuasion and a lot of mobilization," Calderón sums up. What do the polls say? All agree that the right-wing bloc, made up of the PP and Vox, will comfortably achieve the parliamentary majority that would make Feijóo the next prime minister. Although it would not be enough for the Populars to govern alone given the growth of the far right, which could reach up to 20% of the vote in the most optimistic scenarios for Santiago Abascal. The polls indicate that, so far, the PP would even get fewer votes than in the last elections in 2023, but would remain the most-voted party by a wide margin. The conservative leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo is the favorite to become Spain's next prime minister A. Pérez Meca - EUROPA PRESS On the other hand, the polls place the PSOE as the second force, with a slight loss of votes compared to 2023. Quite an achievement for the socialist government after a final term of high wear in public opinion. "The probability of Sánchez being reelected is minimal, but I would never count him as defeated. He is an expert at using his resistance manual," warns Ortega Jarrín, a specialist in political communication. Impact on the campaign The latest polls have not yet measured the impact on the campaign of the death of Maricarmen Abascal, the 87-year-old retiree who died this week after being evicted from her apartment. Her case made public the housing crisis affecting the entire country and especially mobilized young people with the encampment at the Puerta del Sol and in a dozen Spanish cities. The demonstrations were repeated throughout this week: some 20,000 people gathered on Thursday in Madrid to march in memory of Maricarmen. "Her death has turned her into an icon, and icons in campaigns weigh like lead. This situation is a perfect narrative for the PSOE: a face, a name, and a culprit. For the right, on the other hand, the Maricarmen issue is a minefield. That said, it is also unwise to overestimate its impact on the campaign, because a tragedy mobilizes one's own supporters more easily than it convinces others. It may help Sánchez recover the left-wing voter who was staying home, but it will hardly be enough for him to cross the river," explains Calderón Avellaneda. Protesters clash with police after a demonstration this week in Barcelona Emilio Morenatti - AP The socialists will try to make the PP navigate that minefield posed by the Maricarmen case, who was evicted in Madrid under the watchful eye of Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who governs the capital. The 87-year-old retiree died 14 days after leaving her home following a long dispute with an investment fund that had bought the apartment where she had lived for 70 years. Housing policy in Spain falls under the jurisdiction of the autonomous communities, most of which are in the hands of the PP, which is why it is a debate that makes the opposition uncomfortable. After Maricarmen's death, the PP stepped on some of the mines left by this crisis. For example, the party refused to hold a minute of silence in its tribute in the Madrid legislature on the orders of Díaz Ayuso, who before the retiree's death had publicly mocked her. Feijóo has understood this better by trying to neutralize the issue, asking that there be "no campaign, no parties, no interested exploitation" of Maricarmen. "Poorly managed empathy is extremely costly in politics," warns Calderón Avellaneda. Behind closed doors, the feelings are antagonistic. Euphoria persists among the PP's grassroots over the early elections, but its leadership asks everyone to focus on maintaining the lead and, above all, insists on not declaring victory prematurely. Perhaps that is why Feijóo announced this Friday that he will participate in three presidential debates with Sánchez, a reversal of his refusal in the last campaign. From the PSOE, meanwhile, they know that staying in La Moncloa is a dream. The most optimistic point to a growth of Vox at the expense of the Populars that would allow them to become the most-voted party. But no one explains how they would then gather the majority to form a government. More than a dream, it seems like a utopia. Spain Pedro Sánchez Elections in Spain