Midterms could decide Johnson’s fate as GOP fights to hold House

This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. End of dialog window. Questions surrounding Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) political future are in the spotlight after he floated the possibility of returning to Louisiana if Republicans lose the House in November. The GOP is facing harsh political headwinds ahead of Election Day, as Democrats seek to capitalize on voter frustration over the economy and President Trump’s low approval ratings. Republicans are defending a narrow House majority, leaving little room for error as Democrats target competitive districts across the country. Decision Desk HQ forecasts that Democrats are favored to win back the House next year. A Democratic takeover would cost Johnson his Speakership and force Republicans to reckon with questions about their leadership and the party’s direction. One GOP lawmaker, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to The Hill, said some Republicans could seek a leader who is willing to serve as a check on the Trump administration if Democrats flip the House. “I hear it all the time in the District. We want a check and balance. We don’t want a rubber stamp,” the lawmaker said, adding that they think this will “hurt” the party in the election. Johnson, a staunch ally of the president, has worked to hold his slim majority together while contending with repeated division within his conference, including clashes over government funding and the Iran war. “Heaven forbid, if we lose this majority or whatever, I don’t know what my next chapter of life is,” Johnson told Fox News in an interview this past week. “If God moves on our hearts and says we should, you know, go back to my hometown of Shreveport and start a lawn business, I’ll do that with equal fervor. I mean, I just want to be of my highest and best use to God and to my country.” His remarks quickly reverberated through Washington, so much so that his spokesperson, Lance Trover, dismissed any speculation that Johnson would leave Capitol Hill. “All the DC speculation about the Speaker because he dared to speculate about his potential future in the lawn care business is hilarious,” Trover wrote on the social platform X. “Not that I believe he’d be bad at it, but allowing it to overshadow the massive fundraising numbers announced this morning or the insane travel schedule he’s doing to keep the majority seems to be nothing short of trying to drive a contrived narrative.” Still, some GOP lawmakers and aides told The Hill that there could be a potential push to support someone else as leader besides Johnson if the party suffers major losses in the midterms. “I think Mike could have done a better job, but it wasn’t just him,” the same House member said. “It’s the whole leadership team.” He added that he wasn’t “shocked” by Johnson’s remarks, noting that former GOP House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) announced he was going to retire months before Democrats won control of the House in the 2018 midterm elections. A GOP staffer, meanwhile, said that if Republicans lose next month by a large margin “there will be a clear retreat.” “I would imagine there to be more of a push for someone else,” the staffer added, noting the millions of dollars spent by the GOP on the election so far. GOP strategist Amy Koch told The Hill it can be hard for a Speaker to return to the rank and file. There also tend to be more opportunities in the private sector for members fresh out of the Speakership. Yet, she noted, if Democrats flip the House, it’s possible Johnson keeps the gavel given his “unusual” ascension to lead the party. “Speaker Johnson came in under, really, a compromise situation,” she said, adding that the conference could be “happy to have him stay” should the GOP lose its majority. “Some of that will play into whether he decides to go or not,” Koch concluded. There’s also the Trump factor. The president could weigh in and urge Republicans to rally behind Johnson as minority leader, particularly given their close working relationship and the Louisiana Republican’s pro-Trump track record in Congress. Still, some GOP staffers floated House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) as contenders for minority leader if Republicans lose the House. In August, Scalise dodged a question from Punchbowl News about whether he would seek the post. One aide noted that the Republican conference at large “likes” Johnson and speculated that his personal friendship with Jordan could factor in to the Ohio Republican’s political future. “I don’t know if … they lost the House if … Jim Jordan would then step in, and Mike Johnson would step aside,” they continued. A different GOP lawmaker described Johnson as an “extraordinary Speaker.” “I don’t think anyone could have done a better job than he has done,” they added. A staffer told The Hill that chatter about the Speaker’s political future “is pure noise,” while another aide said it’s “nice” Johnson has been “transparent” on his thinking. Johnson, for his part, maintained that he would be the Speaker of the next Congress. “I’m not going to talk about the scenario where we don’t win the House, because I am laser-focused on winning the House,” he told Fox News when asked whether he would run for minority leader. Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.