Effective security guarantees for Ukraine would require its partners to be ready to deploy their forces on Ukrainian territory after hostilities cease and fight alongside Ukrainian troops if Russia attacks again. At the same time, it remains an open question whether Western countries are prepared to make such a political commitment.
Stéphane Audrand, an Associate Fellow at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) Security Studies Center, said this in a comment to an Ukrinform correspondent on the sidelines of the Ukraine–France Forum in Paris.
“Guaranteeing a country’s security means being prepared to fight for it if it is attacked. When we talk about ‘security guarantees,’ the term often sounds vague. But among allies, it has a concrete meaning,” Audrand said.
He cited Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union, which provide for assistance to a member state in the event of armed aggression. Since Ukraine is not yet a member of either organization, its security guarantees would require separate arrangements, with their terms depending on the circumstances under which hostilities end.
“If a ceasefire were simply declared tomorrow, that would be one of the worst possible scenarios. It would create an extremely difficult situation: ensuring compliance when the aggressor wants to continue its actions. In the age of drones, violating a ceasefire and denying responsibility is easier than ever,” he explained.
Audrand does not consider the deployment of a UN disengagement force or an OSCE mission an effective option for Ukraine. He also noted that establishing a demilitarized zone along the entire line of contact with Russia, similar to the border between North and South Korea, would be extremely difficult.
Therefore, foreign forces would need to be deployed in Ukraine from the very first day of a ceasefire. “They must enter with a clear commitment: if aggression resumes, we will fight alongside the Ukrainians.”
According to the expert, the presence of relatively small contingents of allied forces in the Baltic states serves precisely this deterrent purpose.
“The Coalition of the Willing must at least prepare us for such a scenario at the operational level. The question is whether we will be politically capable of making such a commitment,” he stressed.
Read also: French expert: Europe must prepare for ‘armed peace’ and strengthen Ukraine’s defense
As reported by Ukrinform, Germany plans to host a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing in Berlin this winter, together with France and the United Kingdom, to coordinate further assistance to Ukraine.