Lula gains ground in a poll, but the runoff with Bolsonaro remains in a statistical tie

SÃO PAULO.– With just two days to go before Brazil's presidential election, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva heads into the first round with a five-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro among valid votes, but with a much tighter scenario in the event of a runoff, according to the latest Datafolha poll released this Thursday. The Brazilian president holds 45% of valid votes, compared with 40% for the Liberal Party (PL) senator, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Further behind are Augusto Cury, of Avante, with 4%, and Ronaldo Caiado, of the PSD, and Renan Santos, of Missão, with 3% each. The numbers confirm the scenario that has dominated the final stretch of the campaign. Lula maintains his lead for Sunday's first round, but is still far from the 50% plus one of valid votes he would need to avoid a runoff. If none of the candidates surpasses that threshold, the two top vote-getters will face each other again on October 25. When blank, null, and undecided votes are also counted, Lula receives 42% of voting intentions and Flávio Bolsonaro 38%. In the previous Datafolha measurement, the president registered 40% and his main rival 36%, so both grew two points and the gap between them remained at four. Flávio Bolsonaro leaves a gym after meeting with jiu-jitsu practitioners during a campaign event in São PauloNELSON ALMEIDA - AFPThe race, however, becomes much closer when Datafolha projects a potential second round. In that scenario, Lula reaches 48% and Bolsonaro 45%, a three-point difference that falls within the two-percentage-point margin of error and constitutes a statistical tie. In the previous poll, the president stood at 47% and the senator at 45%. The latest survey also shows an election with an increasingly consolidated electorate. The vast majority of those who expressed a preference say their decision is already made, a figure that reduces the margin for major moves in the final hours of the campaign. Among the voters of the two main candidates, loyalty is especially high. The polarization is also reflected in another indicator: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro have the same level of rejection, at 45%. They are, by a wide margin, the two candidates who generate the most resistance among voters, in an election once again organized around the political camps identified with Lulism and Bolsonarism. A vendor offers flags of Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva in BrasíliaEraldo Peres - APThe electoral map, moreover, continues to show marked divisions. Lula retains his best numbers among lower-income sectors and in the northeast, while Bolsonaro posts higher results among evangelicals, voters in the south, and higher-income segments. Among those with family incomes of up to two minimum wages, for example, Lula gets 50% versus Bolsonaro's 28%; among those earning between two and five minimum wages, the senator leads 47% to 34%. Datafolha interviewed 2,506 voters aged 16 or older between September 29 and October 1. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level. A debate that never happenedThe release of the poll coincided with an unexpected twist in the campaign's last major televised event. Flávio Bolsonaro canceled his participation in the TV Globo debate at the last minute, just hours before it was to begin, after Lula had already announced that he would not attend either. "I have just made the decision not to attend the Globo debate due to the censorship imposed on the event by the Superior Electoral Court," Bolsonaro wrote on X. His decision came after the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) modified the conditions under which the meeting was to take place. Among other things, the Electoral Court prevented Globo from placing an empty chair to represent Lula's absence and established restrictions so that the candidates present could not use their speaking time to challenge the absent president. Bolsonaro's withdrawal ultimately led to the cancellation of the debate, which was to be the last before Sunday's vote. Lula had decided not to participate and, after his main rival dropped out, Globo concluded that the conditions no longer existed to hold the event with the other candidates. AFP and Reuters AgenciesElections in BrazilBrazilLula da Silva