Some Hong Kong retailers are forecasting double-digit sales growth over the National Day "golden week" holiday, but industry leaders have warned that the expected influx of mainland Chinese visitors may deliver far smaller gains across the sector as tourists remain cautious about spending. The cautious outlook came after authorities estimated that about 1.29 million mainland visitors were expected between October 1 and 7, with average daily arrivals projected to exceed last year's figure by more than 5 per cent. Businesses are offering discounts, shopping rewards and events to persuade visitors to spend more, while some hotels are counting on late bookings to fill their remaining rooms. "The net effect is that total retail receipts may still increase, but the growth will be disproportionate to visitor arrivals," said Gary Ng Cheuk-yan, a senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank.