Dollar falls to R$5.17 and accumulates a 0.15% decline in September

On a day of global relief in the financial markets, the dollar fell about 1%, ending September with a slight loss. The stock market advanced nearly 1.5% in the session and posted a gain of just over 5% for the month. Markets reacted mainly to US inflation data below expectations, which reduced pressure for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. In Brazil, the electoral scenario and the end-of-month exchange rate formation also influenced trading. Oil closed higher, with tensions in the Middle East still on investors' radar. Numbers of the day Spot dollar: R$ 5.174 (-0.76%); Dollar in September: -0.15% Ibovespa: 186,340.46 points (+1.37%); Ibovespa in September: +5.03%; Brent crude: US$ 98.03 (+1.94%); WTI crude: US$ 90.42 (+1.16%); Dollar falls The commercial dollar ended the session down 0.76%, at R$ 5.174. During the session, the currency hit a low of R$ 5.164, a drop of 0.95%, at around 9:50 am. For September as a whole, the dollar posted a loss of 0.15%. In the third quarter, however, it gained 0.23%. In 2026, the currency has accumulated a decline of 5.75%. US inflation The main external factor behind the currency's behavior was the release of US inflation data. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in August. The expectation was for a 0.3% increase. The full PCE advanced 0.3% for the month, below the projection of 0.4%. The data reduced bets on another US interest rate hike in October and pressured yields on US Treasury bonds. In the Brazilian market, the real performed positively among the main Latin American currencies, in an environment of greater demand for local assets. The electoral scenario also remained on investors' radar, though poll data were not decisive for the session's analysis. Stock market advances The Ibovespa rose 1.37% on Wednesday, to 186,340.46 points. The index reached 187,834.97 points at its high and marked 183,879.71 points at its low. With the result, the Brazilian stock market posted a gain of 5.03% in September. In the third quarter, the advance was 8.32%. In 2026, the Ibovespa has accumulated a gain of 15.65%. The movement was driven mainly by bank stocks and sectors tied to domestic activity. The external environment also favored risk assets after US inflation data came in below expectations. Foreign capital flows helped sustain the stock market's performance throughout the month. According to B3 data, through September 28 there was a net inflow of R$ 9.569 billion from foreign investors into the Brazilian stock market. For the year, the accumulated balance is positive at nearly R$ 29 billion. In August, foreign investors had withdrawn R$ 18.1 billion from the stock market. In July, the balance had been positive at R$ 4.3 billion, considering listed shares and share offerings. Oil rises Oil futures contracts ended Wednesday higher, with tensions in the Middle East remaining elevated and the market monitoring the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in London, Brent for December rose 1.94%, or US$ 1.87, to US$ 98.03 per barrel. WTI crude for November, traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), advanced 1.16%, or US$ 1.04, to US$ 90.42 per barrel. In September, WTI posted a gain of nearly 6%, while Brent advanced about 7%. The market is also watching possible restrictions on US diesel exports and Russia's extension of its fuel export ban through the end of October. In the Middle East, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center reported that an oil tanker was hit by a projectile of unknown origin in the Strait of Hormuz. The incident is under investigation. Despite the geopolitical tensions, Middle East oil exports are recovering, as major producers have increased supply through routes alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. In the United States, oil inventories rose unexpectedly last week, while gasoline stocks posted a sharp drop, according to data from the US Department of Energy. * with information from Reuters