Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in Texas Senate race poll

This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. End of dialog window. A new poll shows Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by 5 points over a month before the November midterm elections. The Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll released Friday showed Talarico with 49 percent support from voters and Paxton with 44 percent support, with 3 percent saying they are undecided. This new poll is the second in a monthly series of polling results released by TPOR. Last month’s poll showed Talarico’s ahead by 6 points, 48-42. Independent voters favor Talarico by double digits, 58-26, with 5 percent who say they are undecided. Paxton holds the lead among white voters and voters 55 years and above. Talarico leads among Latino voters, Black voters, voters under 55, college-educated voters, men and women, the poll stated. Voters also favor Talarico in terms of general approval at 21 percent. Seventeen percent say they view him as a “champion of ordinary people,” according to the poll. Fifteen percent of respondents say they support him for “his honesty, integrity and character” and 10 percent say they are looking for a new leader in the role. Paxton’s general approval sits at 21 percent, with 23 percent preferring him due to respondents’ dislike of Talarico. The Texas Republican won support from 17 percent of respondents because of party loyalty and 14 percent for his record in office. Talarico leads on the issue of the cost of living and improving Texans’ financial situations at 49 percent to Paxton’s 42 percent, with 6 percent undecided. The Democrat also leads on the issue of handling data centers and artificial intelligence, 45-40, with 11 percent undecided. These results follow the Marist poll released last Thursday, showing Talarico with 50 percent support to Paxton’s 44 percent. Four percent said they were undecided. Talarico also leads in the NBC 5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group poll, with 46 percent of voters backing him and 43 percent supporting Paxton. The Senate race, typically seen as an uphill battle for Democrats in the Lone Star State, shifted to a “toss-up” in the latest update from the Cook Political Report. Republican groups like the Senate Leadership Fund’s Texas affiliate tied to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S. D.) have poured money into the race to keep it red and maintain GOP control in the Senate. President Trump’s super PAC MAGA Inc. gave $5 million toward the race, according to a recent Federal Election Commission filing. The TPOR survey was conducted Sept. 19-22 and included 1,007 respondents. The margin of error is 3.6 percentage points. Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.