Donald Trump faces two threats that put his Republican Party at risk ahead of the midterm elections and could overshadow the results of his second term. According to an analysis published by CNN, the president is in a more vulnerable position regarding Iran than any president since Democrat Jimmy Carter (1977-1981), while the impact of the war on energy prices worsens voters' economic perception ahead of the November legislative elections. Just like during the 1979 hostage crisis, which destroyed Carter's popularity and directly contributed to his electoral defeat in 1980, today the Islamic Republic is exerting political pressure that could increase on Trump, affecting the course of the midterm elections. A week ago, the White House team predicted an imminent agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But Tehran imposed new demands. In 1980, Iran pressured a U.S. election after the hostage crisis that began on November 4, 1979, when Iranian students took over the U.S. embassy in Tehran and held 52 American citizens for 444 days. Forty-six years later, the role of hostage is played by the oil export route through the Strait of Hormuz. The regime thus has another point of pressure during the election season, while the American electorate—like during Carter’s time—blames Trump for the economic repercussions. Then-President Jimmy Carter announcing sanctions against Iran during the 1979 hostage crisis. Photo: Library of Congress Archive With the return of conflicts after a brief ceasefire in July, the average gasoline price in the U.S. again exceeded $4 per gallon. Added to this are the difficulties in housing and healthcare affordability, CNN pointed out. Meanwhile, Trump officials insist that the economic burden will ease once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. But these comments could strengthen Iran’s position in negotiations. Tehran hardened its demands and included the end of the U.S. maritime blockade, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, compensation for war damages, and the lifting of sanctions. This is an agreement Trump cannot accept, so Iran might be overreaching in its demands, the American network reported. If Trump loses patience and restarts the war, he would be doubling down on an unpopular conflict and provoking an even worse economic reaction, it warns. However, the U.S. president seeks to regain the initiative. He told Axios that he hopes the economic impact of the blockade will start to be felt. “We are managing it with a low profile,” he said on Sunday. “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact that they have no money.” Aerial view of the port of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, in the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: Archive Then, he emphasized that Iran is in a “very precarious economic situation” and lacks funds to pay its troops. “Everything will be resolved. It always is. It’s like a chess game,” Trump told Axios. Trump has already weakened the Iranian armed forces, delayed its nuclear program with airstrikes mid-last year, and hit its industrial defense base. Now, he is betting on the resilience of the U.S. economy to come out ahead of Iran. However, several analysts—CNN pointed out—believe that Iran is more willing to impose suffering on its population while its leaders pursue their existential confrontation with the United States, and that a regime collapse seems unlikely in Trump’s short-term political horizon. Concern over posts While the scenario in the Middle East becomes more complicated, the internal political environment for Republicans also worsens. And the leader of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement seems unaware of the situation. Several of Trump’s social media posts appear to show a president completely disconnected from reality, especially regarding the midterm elections, CNN reports. He posted photos sharing golf days with South African golfer Gary Player, another about shaping a new green on one of his courses, and messages about a futuristic drone port in the ballroom he plans to build at the White House, the renovation of the reflecting pool at the Lincoln Memorial, and two statues of Washington recently covered in gold paint. He also called himself a winner of inflation, but appeared more interested in leaving physical works than offering ideas for national renewal, the TV network commented. New media post from Donald J. Trump (TS: Aug 8 2026, 10:22 PM ET) pic.twitter.com/Hyeffr0tzg— Commentary Donald J. Trump Truth Social Posts On X (@TrumpTruthOnX) August 9, 2026 In any case, the weekend did bring a victory for Trump. The Senate narrowly confirmed his former personal lawyer, Todd Blanche, as Attorney General. But it’s a victory that would please him more than his supporters. Additionally, Republicans left Washington after acknowledging that the voting restrictions bill—one of Trump’s flagship initiatives during his second term, which aimed to require proof of citizenship from voters and restrict mail-in voting—will not pass due to lack of necessary votes. Another foreign policy setback followed. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the 15-point plan for Hamas disarmament in Gaza, which the White House considered advanced. The Democratic lifeline Several polls have shown that Trump has undermined the traditional Republican advantage in public opinion on certain issues. In two core areas where they have historically maintained control—national security and the economy—they are now being surpassed or face a dead heat with Democrats. The president also denies how voters feel. “They’re not mad at me, they’re mad at the Republicans,” he told Punchbowl News in an interview last week. The doctor and Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed. Photo: Archive Recently, however, Democrats might be giving him a chance. Recent victories of progressive and socialist Democratic candidates—such as Abdul El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary or Zohran Mamdani’s election as mayor of New York—fuel Trump’s claims of an “extreme left” wave in the United States. The possibility of victory for Republicans and the Trump administration, therefore, lies in Democrats risking House seats by nominating candidates who alienate moderate voters. Progressive sectors, on the other hand, believe the confusing scenario opens an opportunity among voters who reject both Trump and the moderate Democratic establishment, especially after failed campaigns by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris allowed Trump to regain the White House. “The booming economy” Republicans also cannot expect immediate internal relief from the potential end of the war. Official data show that the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, marking a new blow to the White House and Republican reelection campaigns. The White House is not wrong in claiming that the U.S. economy is resilient, although high food and housing prices, along with wages that do not keep pace with sustained increases, explain why a large part of the population does not recognize the economic boom Trump claims. This gap between the White House’s view of the economy and citizens’ experience is a recurring political trap, which occurs because official discourse does not match what people perceive. NEC Director Kevin Hassett: “If you look at the overall economy, then things are really, really booming. As an example, there are 83,000 construction workers building factories right now. That’s a number that we’ve never seen before. Initial claims for unemployment insurance are…” pic.twitter.com/yszalW0a4c— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) August 9, 2026 “The key point is that, if you look at the economy overall, things are really booming,” said Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council. Hassett argued that last month’s job losses reflected the end of temporary jobs related to the World Cup and that teachers took July as summer break. Calibrating a positive message about the economy, however, remains one of the most difficult tasks in politics. In recent U.S. history, this factor defeated the Republican presidential campaign of John McCain in 2008, the Democrats’ midterm campaigns under Obama in 2010, and caused the failure of Biden and Harris’s campaigns in 2024.