As Democrats gather this week to celebrate the opening of the Obama Presidential Center in Chicago, they’re also confronting a question that has loomed over the party since the former president left office nearly a decade ago: Who is the next Barack Obama?
The answer remains elusive.
In 2008, former President Obama electrified voters with his “hope and change” message, building a massive coalition that reached across generations, races and different regions around the nation.
Obama, who was seen as one of the best political orators in decades, brought record turnout and reshaped not just the Democratic Party but the zeitgeist.
Since then, Democrats acknowledge even as they have produced solid candidates and won the 2020 presidential election, they have failed to replicate the combination of political X factor, cultural appeal and generational energy that catapulted Obama to the White House.
“Barack Obama was a generational candidate,” said Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who ran Obama’s successful Florida operation in 2008. “But there is no Obama 2.0 or Obama 3.0 in the way that Obama wasn’t Clinton 2.0 nor was Clinton a John Kennedy 2.0. Each of those men owned their own moments.”
Democratic strategist Eddie Vale used the New York Knicks victory in the NBA Finals with MVP Jalen Brunson to draw an Obama analogy.
“Easier said than done to say, ‘Why can’t we just have Brunson walk out and win us a title?’” Vale said.
He then added that the 2028 primary “is going to be the crucible to see who is the right person to meet this time and moment.”
The 2028 primary, Democrats say, could emulate the 2008 primary won by Obama mostly because it is an open race, with no clear front-runner.
A recent Emerson College poll had former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg in the lead while other surveys have had former Vice President Kamala Harris or California Gov. Gavin Newsom leading the pack of contenders.
As many as two dozen candidates are expected to enter the race.
Obama came out of nowhere to defeat Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primary and defeat Republican Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) in the general election.
He was not truly an outsider, as he’d served in the Senate for two years before deciding to launch a White House bid against the powerful Clinton machine.
Still, it was an example of a Democrat not waiting their turn, and he ended up surprising the establishment with a win in the Iowa caucuses.
“I have a feeling the 2028 race could feel a lot like 2008, and it could center around a candidate we’re not yet talking about, kind of like Obama,” said one Democratic donor who supported the former president. “It will probably be someone who understands the moment we’re in and can speak to voters the way Obama did.”
“The one thing that’s increasingly apparent is that Democrats don’t want the same old, same old,” the donor added. “And let’s face it, a lot of these Democrats are same old, same old.”
“We’re looking for someone who can almost shock the system,” the donor continued. “In that way, I think it may be another 2008 all over again.”
Obama allies who have spoken to the former president in recent months say he is constantly frustrated by the current administration and the state of the Democratic Party, particularly how Democrats have been speaking to voters and their lack of a message.
“It’s been a source of frustration,” one ally said.
In an interview with late-night host Stephen Colbert last month, Obama slammed Democrats for communicating poorly.
“What I’m more interested in Democrats is, do you know how to talk to regular people like we are not at a college seminar? Can you talk plain English to folks?” he said.
At the same time, those around him say there are Democrats who have impressed him with their communications style. One of those Democrats is New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who Obama told Colbert is an “extraordinary talent.”
The two men made a joint appearance at a New York pre-K center in April where they read children’s books and sang “Wheels on the Bus,” as part of the mayor’s early childhood education initiatives.
“I think they have their differences,” one former Obama aide said. “But Obama clearly admires his political style, and I would venture to say even sees a little bit of himself in Mamdani.
“They both are great communicators, but they also lean into cultural moments,” the former aide said. “They both have a strong sense of who they are and their sensibilities. Can’t say the same thing about many Democrats these days.”
Those who worked in the Obama races say there are lessons to be learned from Obama’s successful campaigns in 2008 and 2012.
“He wasn’t a candidate of ‘of the left’ or ‘the middle’ but ran a campaign on an aspirational and uniting message — something other than ‘Bush is awful,’” Schale said.
“If you are running in 2028, and you want to learn the lesson of Obama, give me a vision for something other than ‘Trump Bad’ and run a campaign that speaks to our better angels,” Schale added. “Those last points are often forgotten in the revisionist history of Barack Obama. Yes, he was the most inspirational orator of recent history, but he also understood the fears and wants of the median voter and wasn’t afraid to talk to them.”
“You don’t win states like Indiana, North Carolina and Florida without truly reaching out to those median voters,” he said.
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