Listen: Will the EU be a player or a bystander in the post-war US-Iran negotiations?

Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network. EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Briefed” hosted by Léa Marchal. The podcast is available on all major platforms. Find the full transcript below: Will Europeans find a place in the negotiations on security in the Middle East? A few hours after the announcement of an agreement between the United States and Iran, French president Emmanuel Macron, as well as the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, said they wanted to play a role in the discussions that are expected to follow. What could that role be? And why do Europeans want a regular seat at the table? “It is much welcomed and fingers crossed that it will also be initialised on Friday because everybody needs the Strait of Hormuz to be open and actually this war to stop. So, it is much welcomed then and we hope that it will last,” said Kallas. Many details of the agreement reached overnight from Sunday to Monday between the United States and Iran remain unknown. A misunderstanding already seemed to be emerging yesterday over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with or without transit fees. In any case, EU’s diplomat in chief Kaja Kallas welcomed the agreement, as we just heard. So did most European leaders. Above all, they hope that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen quickly. And they are ready to contribute. France and the United Kingdom already said back in March that, once the conflict was resolved, they would be ready to deploy a mission to secure shipping through the Strait. President Macron reiterated that point yesterday in an interview with French television channel TF1: “We have built a mission with the British. We are already on the ground. Several nations are present: the Dutch, the Italians, the British. We are ready to act very quickly by sending aircraft, deploying a frigate, and sending mine-clearing vessels”. “What we are going to do with the Americans, and in parallel with the Iranians, is ensure this deployment so that the reopening of Hormuz can take place peacefully and remain sustainable”. In addition to this effort to secure maritime traffic, Europeans would also like to be involved in discussions about Iran’s future.” Because there is still a lot to settle. First, there is the question of how Iran gives up its nuclear arsenal. There is also the issue of potential American compensation for the damage caused by the war. The EU does not want to be left out of those discussions. But in the past years, the EU has gradually lost influence in the negotiations that matter most. The return of Donald Trump to the White House, with his ambition to personally resolve conflicts around the world, has only reinforced that trend. That is why Emmanuel Macron, as well as António Costa, president of the European Council, want, in Costa’s words, to “contribute to the overall strategy for peace in the Middle East.” According to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, European involvement makes sense all the more because Europeans have experience in nuclear negotiations. She makes that argument because the EU spent years acting as the coordinator of international talks aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme. In practical terms, the EU was responsible for coordinating negotiations under the JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, signed in 2015, which was supposed to bring Iran’s nuclear activities to an end. But those efforts ultimately failed. The United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018. Iran then gradually stepped away from its commitments as well and resumed uranium enrichment activities. Today, neither the United States nor Iran appears to need Europeans to reach a new agreement. Instead, they have preferred to involve Pakistan, seen as a more neutral mediator. As a result, despite its proposals, the EU is likely to remain on the sidelines of the talks that are about to begin, with little influence over Iran’s nuclear programme or the international sanctions currently in place.