More could be done to counter China’s subtle economic coercion
By Karishma Vaswani / Bloomberg Opinion
China’s role as a lender and trade partner is giving it greater latitude to shape the conditions of relationships with other countries. And economic dependence can make Beijing’s red lines harder to ignore. The latest example has come in a canceled conference. Access Now, the New York-based group behind RightsCon — the world’s leading digital rights summit — called off its largest annual gathering in Zambia days before it was due to begin last week. The government had earlier said it was postponing the event, citing the need to ensure the agenda aligned with “national values.” Access Now says that there is another reason. In a statement, it pointed to conversations with Zambian officials who spoke of pressure from China over the participation of activists from Taiwan.
Illustration: Mountain People
“We believe foreign interference is the reason RightsCon 2026 won’t proceed in Zambia or online,” the group said. Beijing has not publicly acknowledged any role and Lusaka is sticking with its version of events. Still, the incident carries a warning: Crossing China’s red lines on Taiwan comes with economic and diplomatic costs.
Zambia’s domestic context matters. Civil society groups have raised concerns about constraints on free expression and political sensitivity to criticism, factors that might well have been decisive in postponing the event. The southern African nation’s economic ties to China offer insight into why it might be particularly vulnerable. Zambia owes more than US$4 billion to China Exim, a state-owned lender and its single biggest creditor. Days before RightsCon was called off, the Zambia Development Agency signed a US$1.5 billion deal with China Machinery Engineering Corp to expand power capacity — although feasibility studies have yet to begin. The venue for the event, Mulungushi International Conference Center, had itself been upgraded with Chinese government financing. Beijing says these are purely financial relationships, denying they come with strings attached. The risk is not always overt pressure — it is something much subtler: Quiet compliance, where governments dependent on China adjust their decisions to fall in line with its priorities. This is not about just one canceled conference. It poses a conundrum about whether global civil society activities can remain insulated from geopolitical pressure when Beijing is involved, said Michael Caster, head of the Global China Program at Article 19, an organization that promotes freedom of expression. “What happened in Zambia also raises questions of security and civil society access for future gatherings,” he wrote. That pressure reflects a broader pattern of how Beijing wields its clout. It is particularly blunt in efforts to diplomatically isolate Taiwan. Last month President William Lai’s (賴清德) state visit to Eswatini — the only African country that maintains full relations with Taipei — was disrupted after the Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar revoked overflight permissions, allegedly under pressure from China. Beijing denies this, although it did praise the actions without naming the nations. All three have strong economic ties to China. Lai ultimately made the trip after a delay. Eswatini’s diplomatic ties with Taiwan have come at a cost. It is the only African country excluded from China’s new tariff-free trade arrangement with the continent. Africa is an increasingly important arena for China’s global economic and political reach. Public opinion toward Beijing is more favorable than in many other parts of the world. This popularity makes economic dependence easier to sustain politically and quiet compliance easier for governments to sell at home. It can be hard to say no to Beijing’s political expectations that might accompany these ties. Four of the 10 countries most affected by China’s influence are in Africa: Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Algeria and South Africa, Taiwan-based Doublethink Lab’s China Index said. The pattern is not confined to Africa. Several airlines have changed how they refer to Taiwan on their Web sites after Chinese pressure. Beijing has blocked Taiwan from attending the World Health Assembly, while athletes compete at the Olympics under the name Chinese Taipei. The international space for Taiwan to operate is narrowing and the stakes are about to get higher when US President Donald Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) this week. Beijing has made it clear that Taiwan would be at the top of its agenda, saying to Washington that it should stay out of internal affairs. Taipei is watching for any sign that Trump might soften longstanding American policy in exchange for trade concessions. That would be the most consequential act of quiet compliance yet — and from Washington, not a debt-laden African nation. For its part, the US says maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait is in its interests. Taiwan and partners such as Japan need to make clear to Washington that allowing Beijing’s sensitivities to shape events in third countries — or in summits between great powers — carries wider risks. The answer is not to tell governments to avoid China, but to reduce the costs of saying no. That means credible alternative financing, more transparent debt and infrastructure deals, and support for much-needed development projects. Relationships with no strings attached sound ideal in theory, but they rarely exist. The lesson from Zambia is that Beijing’s economic reach comes with expectations. Navigating them requires clearer boundaries and stronger alternatives — or accepting a world that runs on China’s wishes. Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC’s lead Asia presenter and worked for the BBC across Asia and South Asia for two decades. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.