Trump is flying to China at a time when his traditional tools of pressure have been blunted and the Iran conflict casts a long shadow over every conversation.
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Donald Trump heads to China this week with fewer cards in his hand than at any point in his presidency, even as the unresolved US–Iran war, a volatile Gulf, and an uncertain Indo-Pacific architecture pile pressure on Washington, Beijing and New Delhi alike. Trump no longer has tariffs as a credible bargaining chip against China. (AP File Photo)The picture that emerges from the recent Point Blank conversation between Hindustan Times Executive Editor Shishir Gupta and Senior Anchor Aayesha Varma is of a world where leaders are constantly in motion, but durable solutions remain elusive. Trump in China: A visit without leverageGupta underlines that Trump is flying into Beijing at a time when his traditional tools of pressure have been blunted and the Iran conflict casts a long shadow over every conversation. Washington has already rejected a proposal, routed via Pakistan, in which Tehran refused to yield “an inch” on the nuclear issue and attached conditions to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, effectively turning the plan into a non-starter. Compounding the challenge, Trump no longer has tariffs as a credible bargaining chip after US court rulings undercut his ability to use even a 10% levy as leverage against China. The last round of tariff escalation saw Beijing retaliate by cutting off critical mineral supplies, forcing Washington to back off and reminding the White House that economic coercion can cut both ways. Gupta also stresses a more structural problem: Trump’s impatience clashes with the political culture of both Beijing and Tehran. China and Iran, he notes, are civilisations that place a premium on written texts, long negotiations and carefully drafted understandings, whereas Trump prefers instant outcomes and headline-grabbing deals. That mismatch virtually guarantees that the US president will not find “instant solutions” in Beijing to the Iran crisis or to the broader strategic contest with China. Iran war, Hormuz choke point and global painThe unresolved US–Iran war is the “shadow” behind Trump’s China trip, shaping every calculation in Washington, Tehran, Beijing and New Delhi. Pakistani mediation has failed, and Iran’s leadership remains adamant on preserving its nuclear posture, the very issue that triggered the conflict, while the Strait of Hormuz has shifted from collateral theatre to central battlefield. With the choke point effectively constrained, Gupta warns that the global economy is already suffering and is unlikely to recover for at least six months even if a ceasefire or agreement were to be reached today. This disruption has directly fed into Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call for restraint in consumption, particularly of energy, as a way of cushioning India against external shocks. In Gupta’s telling, both Trump and the Iranian leadership share responsibility for forcing the global economy into this “catch-22” where Washington cannot obtain its desired concessions and Tehran refuses to yield. China’s role further complicates the equation. Beijing is indispensable to any meaningful progress, Gupta notes, pointing out that Chinese support to Iran has included satellite imagery and target data during Iranian strikes on US bases in the Middle East. That reinforces why Trump “needs the Chinese” if he wants anything concrete out of Tehran, but it also explains why Beijing has no interest in allowing the US to emerge as the clear winner in Iran. Modi’s Gulf and Europe swing: UAE at the centreEven as Trump heads to Beijing, Modi is preparing for a tightly calibrated tour of the UAE, the Netherlands, Norway and Italy, with the Gulf stop emerging as the most strategically charged leg. Gupta notes that the exact dates of the UAE visit, tentatively between the 15th and 18th, are being kept flexible for security reasons, given that the region is still in a state of war. The India–UAE relationship, he argues, has quietly become one of New Delhi’s closest and most comprehensive partnerships, spanning food security, oil and energy security, political dialogue, de-radicalisation, and defence cooperation. The bargain is almost textbook: UAE underwrites India’s energy needs, while India supports the Emirates’ food security, producing a dense, mutually beneficial interdependence. Ports outside the Strait of Hormuz are central to this calculus. UAE is developing Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, both located in the Gulf of Oman, beyond the immediate constraints of the Persian Gulf choke point. These facilities allow Abu Dhabi to ship oil, LNG and LPG even when Hormuz is threatened, making them vital hubs for Indian energy security in a crisis. Yet Iran has repeatedly targeted UAE, including Fujairah, with missiles, kamikaze drones and cruise missiles, in what Gupta describes as an attempt to “punish” Abu Dhabi for its partnership with Israel. This sustained pressure has exposed a striking weakness: the Gulf Cooperation Council has not been able to rally effectively behind UAE, leaving Abu Dhabi disillusioned with partners it once backed. For Gupta, that opens space for a qualitatively new Middle East after the war, in which India and UAE move even closer together to build a more resilient and autonomous axis of stability. BRICS in Delhi: Asia’s bid to reset the orderLooking beyond immediate crises, Delhi will host the BRICS summit in September, with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping expected to attend. Gupta describes the gathering as a significant platform for countries outside the G7 and even beyond the G20 core to signal a shared desire for peace, respect for sovereignty and resistance to externally driven regime change. With UAE now a member, BRICS is evolving into a more diverse coalition of emerging powers that seek closer economic ties and greater stability in the international system. For Gupta, the underlying ambition is clear: to see whether Asia can “deliver” on peace and stability where the US and the broader West have, in the eyes of many in the Global South, fallen short. Quad at crossroads: Will Trump go solo?Amid these shifts, US Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor Marco Rubio is scheduled to travel to India for the Quad foreign ministers’ meeting at the end of the month. On the bilateral front, Gupta is unequivocal: India–US ties are strong and advancing on multiple fronts. The uncertainty lies not in the partnership, but in the future of the Quad itself. Originally conceived to bring India, the US, Japan and Australia together to balance China’s expanding influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, the Quad was also meant to drive cooperation on disaster relief, high-end technologies and resilient supply chains. Yet, Gupta notes that under Trump’s current approach, the US increasingly prefers to “go solo” in dealing with China, the Middle East and even Europe, diluting the multilateral momentum that Quad requires. Other members are hedging and arming accordingly. Japan is seeking Tomahawk missiles, deploying systems in Okinawa and strengthening its deterrent capabilities at sea. Australia is pursuing its own path, while India is investing in its navy and maritime security to cope with a Chinese presence that Gupta says is now a permanent feature of the Indian Ocean, from regular surveillance ships to anti-piracy escort forces operating off Djibouti. It was Trump in 2017 who launched the Quad foreign ministers’ dialogue, and Gupta argues that only Trump can now bring Quad “of age” by convening a long-awaited leaders’ summit and choosing not to deal with China unilaterally. If Washington continues to prioritise one-on-one management of Beijing - as signalled by Trump’s focus on his China visit even as the Quad summit languishes - then the grouping will likely slip into the background. In that case, the task of “containing” or even just managing China’s assertiveness across Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia and the wider South China Sea will be, in Gupta’s words, a humongous undertaking that the US cannot handle alone. Whether Trump’s week of diplomacy - in Beijing, in the Middle East by proxy, and via his envoys in Delhi - marks the beginning of a more collective approach or a deeper turn to solo play will shape the next phase of global geopolitics.