Middle East: A wall against a wall – the US and Iran are locked in a standoff, with a fragile truce hanging by a thread.

The Iranian response to the U.S. proposal to end the war, and the subsequent harsh reaction from Donald Trump, represent yet another injection of uncertainty and tension into the Middle Eastern conflict. The "ceasefire is very weak, clinging to life, after that garbage proposal they sent us," and "has a 1% chance of holding," the tycoon declared. While the U.S. president dismisses Tehran's "unacceptable" counter-proposal and considers resuming Operation Project Freedom in Hormuz, he also believes a diplomatic solution is "still very possible," although he deems the Islamic Republic's leadership "unworthy." However, this solution appears to be on hold, at least until Trump's highly anticipated visit to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping, which is considered crucial for the future of the war in the Middle East. "While maintaining distrust of the enemy," Tehran also "believes negotiations are possible," said President Masoud Pezeshkian. However, these must proceed "from a position of dignity, wisdom, and opportunity," with Iran promising to abide by any agreement that aligns with "the Supreme Leader's concerns and the interests of the Iranian people." In this regard, the Islamic Republic has labeled U.S. demands as "excessive" in a plan that "would have meant Tehran's submission." Conversely, Iranian proposals are "generous and rational," according to Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei, including war reparations, Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to sanctions, and, of course, an immediate end to the war and the U.S. naval blockade, with a guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again. There are no preliminary commitments regarding the nuclear program, which Iran intends to address in the next 30 days of negotiations, although Tehran has reiterated its willingness to dilute some enriched uranium and potentially transfer it to a third country. Donald Trump unequivocally rejected the Iranian letter: "They think I'm feeling pressure. I have no pressure," the tycoon assured. Meanwhile, the consequences of the war are also being felt in the United States, prompting the president to suspend the federal gasoline tax "for a certain period of time." In any case, the American leader is convinced that he will achieve "a complete victory." However, despite the harsh rhetoric, the verbal confrontation has not yet resulted in immediate consequences on the ground: the news of an Iranian drone shot down in the southwest does not seem to have disrupted the fragile truce, and nothing has changed in Hormuz, where ships continue to pass sporadically. Israel, engaged on the Lebanese front, which is effectively reopened, is also waiting and preparing, with Netanyahu convening a security meeting in response to Iran's response to the United States. This tense calm suggests an anticipation focused on Beijing: according to CNN, negotiations between the United States and Iran will not make significant progress before the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, scheduled for the end of this week. According to a regional source cited by the broadcaster, the progress of the negotiations will depend "on the outcome of President Trump's visit to Beijing," which will likely coincide with the visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Delhi for the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting. It is likely that the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Egypt will also participate in this meeting, as they are among the countries facilitating informal dialogue between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan. Tehran is already trying to stir things up by emphasizing, through its ambassador to Beijing, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, that the Islamic Republic is "ready to support the four-point plan" for peace and stability in the Middle East proposed by Xi. Presented last month, the Chinese leader's proposal outlines general principles: peaceful coexistence, respect for national sovereignty and international law, and coordination on security. However, it is paired with a more specific five-point plan, developed with Pakistan and presented at the end of March. Above all, this indicates that China is not merely a spectator in a war that, although distant, affects it politically and economically. Donald Trump is well aware of this, and he will likely have to make compromises in Beijing to secure China's support in the war.