Trump will declare victory in Iran no matter what. Is selling the war as a positive possible?

President Donald Trump waves to reporters as he walks on the South Lawn upon his arrival to the White House, Friday, May 8, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana) As we move into nine weeks of the war with Iran, there is yet another glimmer of hope that this conflict might come to an end. The same war that was won on “Day One,” according to President Trump, who also said the conflict might last weeks, months or when he felt it in his bones, whatever that means. But all Americans should feel relief that there is hope that the conflict will be over soon. An overwhelming number of Americans disapprove of the war and fear that the effects and after effects will affect them negatively. But Trump, being Trump, will declare the war won. And Republicans will have to convince a very jaded American population that it was all worth it and will be worth it for years to come. Which will be practically impossible. Look, no president is ever going to come out and say, “Guess what! I lost a war!” An administration will always try to spin a conflict to their benefit, even if it doesn’t seem that way. Just about every president tried to convince us that things in Iraq/Afghanistan/other places were going well even if they weren’t. And if the public didn’t buy it, blame the other guy. (See Joe Biden and Trump with the Afghanistan withdrawal). But declaring victory over Iran seems hollower than most of our recent quagmires. Trump demanded “unconditional surrender” without realizing that we obtained those in World War II by invading Europe and dropping atomic weapons on Japan. We aren’t going to see U. S. Marines waving an American flag from the top of the Iranian Parliament building or see ayatollahs sign an instrument of surrender on the deck of an American warship. Trump wanted regime change, claimed it happened after killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claims it’s happening now, says the Iranians need to just step up and do it themselves, and even more baffling is claiming the government is fractured and not functioning. If that were truly the case, who are we negotiating with? If the Axios report of a one page memo is accurate, the Republicans are going to have a lot of explaining, spinning and lying to do. Iran’s nuclear program, which was obliterated a while back, but revived from the dead to the point where an attack was imminent, will go on if this memo is true. There will be a moratorium and the U. S. will lift sanctions and release frozen assets to the tune of billions of dollars. The Strait of Hormuz will open with no freighters or cargo ships being attacked or harassed by the Iranians or U. S. Navy. So let’s recap. The president started a war, claimed that Israel had no hand in pushing for it, demanded regime change, unconditional surrender, and no nuclear program is now negotiating with a regime on how their nuclear program can still exist. But Trump will claim this was the plan all along and most Republican senators, representatives, congressional candidates, cable news pundits, podcasters, and influencers will try to convince the rest of us that this is true. The exhausting defense of Trump in his disastrous second term has taken its toll on Republican credibility. These guys have tried to convince us tariffs were great, DOGE was effective, we don’t need the First, Second or Fourth Amendments all the time, that the socialist government of Venezuela is no longer socialist, that no more forever wars only applied to Democrats, and the budget deficits and exploding debt are OK until they lose power. And of course, the most important topic of Trump’s second term. We have to have a ballroom. The fallout of the Iran war should be a litmus test for Republican incumbents and hopefuls. You can’t really be an “America First” isolationist if you support the president’s folly. You can’t be for small government and less spending if you vote in favor of his $1.5 trillion defense budget to fund wars like the one with Iran. You can’t claim this folly of going to war with Iran was a good idea when you would be foaming at the mouth if Barack Obama, Joe Biden or Kamala Harris did it. The midterm outlook is not looking rosy for Republicans even with their efforts to gerrymander succeeding. People are mad for a myriad of reasons and Republicans have to choose between advocating for the people or advocating for Trump. The way things are going, they are going to do some mental gymnastics to try to do both. Selling the Iran war as a positive will be close to impossible. Maybe they should stick to the ballroom. Joslin Joseph is a recipient of the Military Reporters and Editors award for Best Commentary / Opinion. A graduate of Harvard and Ohio State, he is a Marine veteran who served in Iraq. He currently lives in Anaheim, Calif. Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.