Kerch Bridge back in focus, as Ukrainian drones block roads to Crimea (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,537)

rss · EUobserver 2026-05-11T15:12:02Z en
Every day, the Ukraine Battlefield update newsletter offers a clear look at how the war is unfolding on the ground, highlighting key developments along the frontline and the shifting dynamics of the conflict. Russian logistics in the south are under serious threat, with drones destroying supply lines more than 100 km from the frontline. “Ukrainian unmanned aircraft have cut off two key roads used by Russian forces in the south. Trucks are burning, logistics are out of action,” said anti-Putin Russian analyst Yan Matveyev. He previously cooperated with late Russian dissident Alexei Navalny and since 2024 has officially been prosecuted in Russia as a foreign agent. What matters more than his past is the content of his report – all the more so because Matveyev is far from the only one making this claim. To get an idea of the area in question, the map by French analyst Clément Molin is useful. He published it last Thursday, saying he expected an increasing number of Ukrainian drone attacks in the near future in the Doneck-Mariupol-Melitopol triangle. In particular, the route between Mariupol and Melitopol via Berdiansk is the “backbone” of Russian logistics in the south. We will soon start to see more and more ukrainian drone strikes on the Donetsk-Mariupol and Melitopol-Zaporizhzhia roads. Later, ukrainian drones will reach the Mariupol-Melitopol roads. These roads are the backbone of russian forces in the south. https://t.co/9cCOuR2omy pic.twitter.com/Xs31TXlrjV— Clément Molin (@clement_molin) May 7, 2026 Less than a day after that post, the 1st Azov Army Corps published a video that already appeared in Friday’s Ukraine Battlefield update. It shows attacks on traffic around occupied Mariupol from a distance of roughly 160 km. Since then, more have followed, with further examples below. Among Russian observers they are provoking serious concern about the future of supplies to units fighting on the southern front. “Enemy Hornets (a type of drone) are flying unhindered in pairs over the Mariupol section of the R-150 route, seeking targets – primarily tankers and other military transport,” wrote Russian Z-blogger Romanov on his Telegram channel. He warned that the same situation might emerge as on the M-30 road from Horlivka to Doneck. “Despite the fact that the frontline is more than 35 km away from the M-30, this route is currently paralysed due to the enemy’s FPV drones, and civilian traffic is completely banned,” Romanov said. He also noted that, while in 2024 and 2025 the frontline was closer, the M-30 route was safer than it is today, which he linked to the increased range of standard Ukrainian FPV drones, whose reach “is extending faster than the frontline is moving”. This Russian source also claimed that the deterioration was caused by Ukrainian drones using Starlink and that, in his view, they were additionally able to autonomously acquire and hit targets. If the trend is confirmed, the Crimea bridge will be the only route left for safe traffic, which will again increase its strategic importance and thus its military significance. The ceasefire applied to Red Square and long-range strikes, but frontline reports speak of massive violations. While on Friday (8 May) it still seemed Russia was heading for a fiery Victory Day, that same evening US president Donald Trump announced a ceasefire, due to end at midnight today. It also includes the exchange of 1,000 prisoners on each side. As usual, reports of violations accompanied the ceasefire almost immediately. “On no axis is the ceasefire working,” the Ukrainian account Officer wrote on Saturday. He posted his status on the evening of 9 May, that is, after the parade on Red Square in Moscow, which had been the sole reason for declaring the truce. “The war is basically continuing as before … Maybe somewhere in the strategic depth behind the line of contact this whole story is actually working, but we know nothing about it,” he added. “As far as the front is concerned, the ceasefire is not very noticeable there,” claimed another Ukrainian soldier writing under the name Kravchuk. As with every ceasefire, both sides are accusing each other of violations. On Monday morning, the Russian defence ministry announced that Ukraine had violated the truce 16,071 times. The well-known Russian Telegram channel Veteran’s Notes commented as follows: “From one ceasefire to another, such initiatives make less and less sense. While at Easter 2025, 4,900 violations by the Ukrainian armed forces were recorded, in 2026 it was 6,558. On last year’s Victory Day, the ministry of defence counted more than 14,000 violations. The number of Ukrainian attacks during the current ceasefire has reached 16,071 cases, despite the fact that the ceasefire has not yet ended. Kyiv’s contemptuous attitude towards our ‘humanitarian actions’ is only growing, which confirms the terrorist nature of the regime in Ukraine.” This is, of course, a typical Russian commentary on something they themselves do not respect. On Monday morning, the Ukrainian general staff published its own figures. For Sunday alone, it counted 8,037 attacks by Russian drones and 6,380 cases of artillery shelling. In addition, the Ukrainian army said there had been 180 ground assaults on Sunday. Officer came closest to the truth: while at the weekend there were indeed no reports of the otherwise routine mutual long-range drone strikes, fighting continued on the frontline. Russian president Vladimir Putin wanted calm for his parade in Moscow – and that is what he got. Russians moved closer to Sloviansk and advanced west of Pokrovsk, while Ukrainians entered a village near Vovchansk. The very imperfect implementation of the ceasefire, limited essentially to long-range air raids, is also evident from an overview of frontline changes. Given the official halt to fighting, it is surprisingly long. This time it is based solely on Ukrainian sources and also includes a Ukrainian advance. The first place is the village of Zakitne (slightly above the centre of the map) on the route to Sloviansk (centre left). Ukrainian OSINT project DeepStateUA reported that Russian forces had advanced there. Ukrainian analyst Bohdan Myroshnykov also reported on the Sloviansk axis. In his Monday morning briefing, he focused on the situation around the very important village of Rai-Oleksandrivka. “The occupiers are starting to push towards it not only from the south, but also from the east,” he wrote. According to him, Russians are already on the outskirts of the village, which he sees as effectively the start of the battle for it. “If we lose the settlement, we will have to defend Mykolaivka, which lies only 5 km from Sloviansk,” Myroshnykov warned. On the DeepStateUA map, virtually the entire area from Zakitne in the north to Nykyforivka and Fedorivka Druha in the south is a grey zone. Myroshnykov described it as “a single battlefield” where Russians constantly try to infiltrate, the defenders destroy them, but new spots immediately appear where they manage to mass infantry and attack. “This is happening in Kalenyky, Kryva Luka and Riznykivka – in many places there are enemy assault groups trying to expand the zone of conditional control,” he said. The last places where Russian forces advanced in this sector are the villages of Pryvillya and Fedorivka Druha (lower centre). Russian gains near Zakitne are part of Sunday’s fighting. According to DeepStateUA, on Saturday Russian forces advanced north-west of Pokrovsk and Hryshyne near the village of Vasylivka. Unlike Hryshyne, it is a small village, but the larger of the two settlements stretches almost 6 km from north-west to south-east and, after the fall of Pokrovsk, became an important bastion against further advances westward. The opposite case is the settlement of Starytsia near Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region. Without giving further details, Ukrainian analyst Petrenko, for example, reported that the Ukrainian army had managed to clear several positions of Russian infantry there. “Russia announced the capture of this settlement on (18 May) 2024 and again on (24 January) this year, but as we can see, reality is far removed from official statements,” he said. The Black Sea Fleet put to sea – more precisely, a part of it, under massive anti-drone cages. For months, Russia’s navy has been the target of open criticism from Russians themselves, who accuse it of complete passivity due to fear of Ukrainian missiles and drones. Russian Z-channels dislike the fact that it is mostly just passively anchored in Novorossiysk, where it moved after the base in Sevastopol became too dangerous for everything except smaller patrol craft. “And almost all the criticism is justified: inertia, excessive bureaucracy, corruption and an unwillingness to accept the new reality have caused the decline of the fleet,” the influential Russian channel Rybar added on Monday. It did so in a post accompanying the photo below, which shows one of the Project 21980 Grachonok patrol vessels – as this class of ships is designated in Russian naval nomenclature. More of a boat than a ship, it is 30 m long and crewed by eight sailors. It is a small vessel intended mainly for patrolling around ports and has very light armament. Russians also describe it as an anti-terrorist craft. This particular one is noteworthy as the first verified case of a vessel fitted with an anti-drone cage. Russian bloggers had written about such a case earlier, but the photograph appeared only now: On the one hand, Rybar praised the navy for finally starting to adapt, however slowly, to drone warfare, but on the other immediately highlighted the weakness of this solution. It noted that the cage resembled the technical fix used on Russian tanks in 2022, designed exclusively against top-down attacks but completely ineffective against standard drones, which could easily fly underneath such protection. It partly acknowledged that it was impossible to “wrap” the entire vessel, because the protection would obstruct the ship’s weapons. “Against drones capable of penetrating anywhere, this is not sufficient protection. It seems more like a measure for information and self-reassurance purposes (that something is being done),” Rybar said. Videos of the day Disperse, move, and fire. Russian soldiers evade a Ukrainian bomber drone in such a way that it has no chance to aim accurately. Russian soldiers, hunted by a Ukrainian “Vampire” heavy bomber drone, demonstrate the correct tactics for survival. They disperse, fire at the drone, and continuously change positions to prevent it from setting up a successful bomb drop. https://t.co/zkaHGLa3Sr pic.twitter.com/Rmo1epKhzi— Roy🇨🇦 (@GrandpaRoy2) May 11, 2026 Russian forces badly damaged a Caesar self-propelled howitzer. The crew cabin and engine were completely burned out, but the gun itself shows no signs of damage and will serve at least as a source of spare parts. Ewakuacja uszkodzonej 🇺🇦 samobieżnej haubicy CAESAR kalibru 155 mm. Wydaje się, że sporo z niej można jeszcze odzyskać. pic.twitter.com/FYOhqQGoSd— Wojtek Kostrzewa (@wojtekfalco) May 10, 2026 It is only a matter of time before there are more ground drones than manned vehicles on roads near the frontline. На видео — реальность передовой: бесшумные наземные дроны-курьеры везут БК и провизию по дорогам. Там, где раньше рисковали жизнями группы логистики, теперь работают роботы. Им не страшен обстрел, они не знают усталости и проходят там, где застревает техника. Это не фантастика,… pic.twitter.com/nXiXfUdsCh— Политик по приколу (@NaSutkiOdessa) May 10, 2026 What are the losses? On Monday (4 May), some types of equipment were removed from the list, so overall numbers dropped significantly compared with previous weeks. A week later, there was another reduction in total losses on Russian side. By Monday morning, Russia had demonstrably lost 23,650 pieces of heavy equipment (on Tuesday (5 May) 23,650). Of these, 18,618 (18,618) pieces were destroyed by Ukrainians, 976 (976) were damaged, 1,206 (1,206) were abandoned, and 3,182 (3,182) were captured by the Ukrainian army. This includes 4,394 (4,394) tanks, of which 3,292 (3,292) were destroyed in combat. Ukraine has lost 11,219 (11,219) pieces of equipment, of which 8,708 (8,708) were destroyed, 661 (661) damaged, 666 (666) abandoned and 1,184 (1,184) captured. This includes 1,420 (1,420) tanks, of which 1,085 (1,085) were destroyed in combat. Note: Neither side regularly provides information on its dead or on destroyed equipment. Ukraine publishes daily figures on Russian personnel and equipment losses, which cannot be independently verified. This overview uses data from the Oryx project which, since the start of the war, has compiled a list of equipment losses documented exclusively by photographic evidence.
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