A US withdrawal from NATO could Make Europe Great Again

On May 1, the Trump administration announced it would withdraw 5,000 troops now stationed in Germany, reducing the U. S. footprint with a key NATO ally. This decision, which came soon after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized the war in Iran, is just the latest move in President Trump’s strategy of weakening his country’s commitment to NATO. A senior defense official said in comments to The Washington Post that it is intended to promote “a Europe-led NATO.” The troop withdrawal from Germany follows comments Trump made last month when he told a British newspaper, The Telegraph, “I am strongly considering pulling out of NATO.” Trump labeled the alliance “a paper tiger” and added, “Putin knows that too, by the way.” Trump also communicated his displeasure during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on April 8. Politico quoted a White House statement released after they met stating that Trump “has zero expectations for NATO at this point.” But although he doesn’t seem to realize it, the biggest loser in the disintegration of NATO would be the U. S., not Europe. In fact, it offers European nations a chance to develop and assert their own considerable power on the world stage. But all this won’t happen overnight, and it won’t happen without determined political leadership across the continent. Europeans need to begin that process now, weaning themselves from dependence on the U. S. For the last 75 years or so, seemingly nothing could destroy NATO — not even the end of the Cold War. After World War II, it presented the Soviet Union with a united transatlantic West committed to collective defense, ready to treat an attack on one as an attack against all. When the Soviet Union collapsed, NATO survived and even thrived. Instead of falling apart, the anti-communist alliance reinvented itself and became one of the pillars supporting transitions to democracy and a free-market economy in Central and Eastern Europe. In the 1990s, post-communist countries simultaneously sought membership in NATO and the European Union. Eastern Europeans spoke of “Euro-Atlantic integration,” a notion that reinforced the compatibility of their values and commitments with those of the EU and NATO. However, Trump’s two terms in the White House have taken the world in a different direction. Today, the survival of NATO’s trans-Atlantic structure is no longer certain. If it falls apart, Europe itself would be an enormously strong, global power. Its combined population would be much larger than that of the U. S., its gross national product would be around $17 trillion, and it would have the second-largest military budget in the world. Europe should not have to live at the whim of a nation led by a mercurial and unreliable Trump. It needs to push back against the president in the only way he understands — with tough rhetoric. Since the U. S. went to war with Iran, European leaders, not just Germany’s Merz, have shown a new and promising willingness to do so. French President Emmanuel Macron and others have already shown some spine by at least initially rejecting Trump’s call to forcibly seize the Strait of Hormuz. European leaders have also been thinking about a post-NATO Europe. For example, after his Conservative Party won the national election last year, Merz said that it might be necessary “to establish an independent European defense capability.” European allies already are remilitarizing. They have massively increased defense spending and are working toward further integration of military policy at the supranational level in the European Union. Formerly neutral countries Finland and Sweden came off the fence and joined NATO in 2023 and 2024 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Some countries are considering reinstituting mandatory military service. As we have argued before, a rearmed Europe is a mixed blessing. But Trump is really leaving no choice. Although the parallels are by no means exact, Europe has already had a preview of what happens when one nation decides to go its own way. When the United Kingdom left the European Union in 2016, the union adapted. The Guardian quotes the European Policy Centre’s Georg Riekeles, who said that after Brexit, “The EU as a whole … showed the capacity to rally together around an existential issue.” He added: “We miss the British, but probably less than we thought.” Europe, without the U. S. in NATO, might find itself saying a similar thing in the not-too-distant future. America’s formal or informal disengagement from NATO offers Europe the chance to assume a greater role on the international stage, in a world order likely to be more fragmented. It is unfortunate for the U. S. that the president and his administration seem willing to let Europe go its own way. But it may be just the incentive Europe needs. Austin Sarat is the William Nelson Cromwell Professor of Jurisprudence and Political Science at Amherst College. Ruxandra Paul is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Amherst College and an affiliate of the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies at Harvard University. Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.